Soccer World Cup 2022: Actual versus Expectations

Top 5 teams who performed better than expected throughout the tournament:

  • 1. Morocco (+101). 2. France (+77). 3. Cameroon (+69). 4. Japan (+63). 5. Senegal (+60)

Bottom 5 teams who performed worse than expected throughout the tournament:

  • 28. Serbia (-63). 29. Canada (-64). 30. Wales (-73). 31. Denmark (-88). 32. Qatar (-102)

Top 5 teams who performed better than expected in the group stage.

  • 1. Morocco (+105). 2. Senegal (+86). 3. Cameroon (+69). 4. Australia (+60). 5. Japan (+54)

Source: Statistics above based on changes to ELO ratings before the first game and after the last group-stage game according to eloratings.net.

Soccer World Cup 2022

Win probabilities (in %) based on current ELO ratings (www.eloratings.net). Predicted outcome of group stage matches based on those probabilties.

Second stage:

Netherlands 3
United States 1 |
| Netherlands 2 (3)
| Argentina 2 (4) |
Argentina 2 | |
Australia 1 |
| Argentina 3
| Croatia 0 |
Japan 1 (1) | |
Croatia 1 (3) | | |
| Croatia 1 (4) | |
| Brazil 1 (2) |
Brazil 4 | |
South Korea 1 |
Croatia 2 | Argentina 3 (4)
Morocco 1 | France 3 (2)
France 3 |
Poland 1 | |
| France 2 |
| England 1 | |
England 3 | | |
Senegal 0 | |
| France 2 |
| Morocco 0
Morocco 0 (3) |
Spain 0 (0) | |
| Morocco 1 |
| Portugal 0
Portugal 6 |
Switzerland 1

Group Stage

Team 1Team 2Actual/PredictionPointsGoals
GROUP A
QatarEcuador02
NetherlandsSenegal20
QatarSenegal13
NetherlandsEcuador11
NetherlandsQatar20
EcuadorSenegal12
Netherlands7+4
Senegal6+1
Ecuador4+1
Qatar0-6
GROUP B
EnglandIran62
United StatesWales11
WalesIran02
EnglandUnited States00
WalesEngland03
IranUnited States01
England7+7
United States5+1
Iran3-3
Wales1-5
GROUP C
ArgentinaSaudi Arabia12
MexicoPoland00
PolandSaudi Arabia20
ArgentinaMexico20
PolandArgentina02
Saudi ArabiaMexico12
Argentina6+3
Poland40
Mexico4-1
Saudi Arabia3-2
GROUP D
DenmarkTunisia00
FranceAustralia41
TunisiaAustralia01
FranceDenmark21
TunisiaFrance10
AustraliaDenmark10
France6+3
Australia6-1
Tunisia40
Denmark1-2
GROUP E
GermanyJapan12
SpainCosta Rica70
JapanCosta Rica01
SpainGermany11
JapanSpain21
Costa RicaGermany24
Japan6+1
Spain4+6
Germany4+1
Costa Rica3-8
GROUP F
MoroccoCroatia00
BelgiumCanada10
BelgiumMorocco02
CroatiaCanada41
CroatiaBelgium00
CanadaMorocco12
Morocco7+3
Croatia5+3
Belgium4-1
Canada0-5
GROUP G
SwitzerlandCameroon10
BrazilSerbia20
CameroonSerbia33
BrazilSwitzerland10
CameroonBrazil10
SerbiaSwitzerland23
Brazil6+2
Switzerland6+1
Cameroon40
Serbia1-3
GROUP H
UruguaySouth Korea00
PortugalGhana32
South KoreaGhana23
PortugalUruguay20
South KoreaPortugal21
GhanaUruguay02
Portugal6+2
South Korea40
Uruguay40
Ghana3-2

Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – South America – Live Predictions

These tables show the current standings and games, as well as a forecasted final ranking in the group, estimating the outcome of future games using the current soccer ELO ratings published on eloratings.net. This is a demonstration of how actual and forecasted values can be merged into one using a single metric. Home teams are listed vertically, away teams horizontally; the intersection display either the actual score or the predicted goal difference, date of the game and home-team win probability.

Continue reading “Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – South America – Live Predictions”

Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – Europe – Live Predictions

These tables show the current standings and games, as well as a forecasted final ranking in the group, estimating the outcome of future games using the current soccer ELO ratings published on eloratings.net. This is a demonstration of how actual and forecasted values can be merged into one using a single metric. Home teams are listed vertically, away teams horizontally; the intersection display either the actual score or the predicted goal difference, date of the game and home-team win probability.

Continue reading “Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – Europe – Live Predictions”

Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – South America (10 Oct ’21)

These tables show the current standings and games, as well as a forecasted final ranking in the group, estimating the outcome of future games using the current soccer ELO ratings published on eloratings.net. This is a demonstration of how actual and forecasted values can be merged into one using a single metric. Home teams are listed vertically, away teams horizontally; the intersection display either the actual score or the predicted goal difference, date of the game and home-team win probability.

Continue reading “Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – South America (10 Oct ’21)”