House of Representatives
Hung Parliament
| Update as at 23 Aug 2010 (1am) [Election Results] | | Cumulative | ALP | COA | Indep. | GRN | | Poll: Rounding Error | 72 | 72 | 5 | 1 | | Poll: Advantage | 72 | 72 | 5 | 1 | | Count: Ahead | 72 | 72 | 5 | 1 | | Poll: Marginal | 72 | 72 | 5 | 1 | | Poll: Likely | 72 | 72 | 5 | 1 | | Poll: Safe | 72 | 72 | 5 | 1 | | Count: Called | 72 | 72 | 5 | 1 |
| Two Party Preferred Poll (National): 50.9% | NSW: 50.7%. QLD: 45.4%. VIC: 54.5%.
SA: 55.9%.WA: 42.9%. TAS: 55.3%.
ACT: 59.7%. NT: 52.4%. |
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Sources: Newspoll / The Australian and others. Taking geographic and other electoral variables into consideration (including incumbent contesting reelection), the scenario on the left unfolds. Percentages are ALP 2 Party-Preferred percentages based on polls and assumed geographic distribution.
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Legend:
Current Parliament after Redistribution:
ALP held | notional ALP held | COA held | notional COA held
Progress of counting:
 ALP win |  ALP ahead |  COA win |  COA ahead
 GRN win |  GRN ahead |  IND win |  IND ahead
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Show betting odds |
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| | ALP Ahead | | COA Ahead | | 85 | | | | | | 84 | | | | | | 83 | | | | | | 82 | | | | | | 81 | | | | | | 80 | | | | | | 79 | | | | | | 78 | | | | | | 77 | | | | | | 76 | | | | | | 75 | | | | | | 74 | | 50.0% Solomon (NT) | | | | 73 | | 50.2% Boothby (SA) | | | | 72 | | 50.4% Herbert (QLD) | | 49.9% Petrie (QLD) | | 71 | | 50.7% Longman (QLD) | | 49.8% Lindsay (NSW) | | 70 | | 51.1% Page (NSW) | | 49.5% Bonner (QLD) | | 69 | | 51.8% Greenway (NSW) | | 49.4% Bennelong (NSW) | | 68 | | 51.9% Moreton (QLD) | | 49.4% Forde (QLD) | | 67 | | 52.0% Bass (TAS) | | 49.3% Brisbane (QLD) | | 66 | | 52.3% Eden-Monaro (NSW) | | 48.9% Flynn (QLD) | | 65 | | 52.6% Dobell (NSW) | | 48.5% Hasluck (WA) | | 64 | | 52.9% Corangamite (VIC) | | 48.4% Dawson (QLD) | | 63 | | 53.0% La Trobe (VIC) | | 48.2% Sturt (SA) | | 62 | | 53.1% Blair (QLD) | | 48.1% Robertson (NSW) | | 61 | | 53.4% Deakin (VIC) | | 48.1% Leichhardt (QLD) | | 60 | | 53.5% McEwen (VIC) | | 48.1% Swan (WA) | | 59 | | 53.5% Braddon (TAS) | | 47.7% Gilmore (NSW) | | 58 | | 53.6% Brand (WA) | | 47.1% Hughes (NSW) | | 57 | | 53.8% Franklin (TAS) | | 47.1% Macarthur (NSW) | | 56 | | 54.5% Lilley (QLD) | | 46.7% Grey (SA) | | 55 | | 55.2% Perth (WA) | | 46.3% Stirling (WA) | | 54 | | 55.9% Richmond (NSW) | | 46.3% Cowan (WA) | | 53 | | 56.2% Fremantle (WA) | | 46.1% Macquarie (NSW) | | 52 | | 56.4% Parramatta (NSW) | | 46.0% Parkes (NSW)
versus IND | | 51 | | 56.8% Banks (NSW) | | 45.3% Dunkley (VIC) | | 50 | | 57.0% Oxley (QLD) | | 45.3% Aston (VIC) | | 49 | | 57.4% Bendigo (VIC) | | 45.0% Dickson (QLD) | | 48 | | 57.6% Kingston (SA) | | 44.7% Paterson (NSW) | | 47 | | 57.6% Rankin (QLD) | | 44.6% Ryan (QLD) | | 46 | | 57.7% Capricornia (QLD) | | 44.5% McMillan (VIC) | | 45 | | 58.0% Griffith (QLD) | | 44.1% Mayo (SA) | | 44 | | 58.1% Canberra (ACT) | | 43.8% Cowper (NSW) | | 43 | | 58.2% Reid (NSW) | | 43.4% Gippsland (VIC) | | 42 | | 58.2% Hindmarsh (SA) | | 43.4% Casey (VIC) | | 41 | | 58.5% Melbourne Ports (VIC) | | 43.3% Menzies (VIC) | | 40 | | 58.5% Lyons (TAS) | | 43.3% Goldstein (VIC) | | 39 | | 58.7% Chisholm (VIC) | | 43.0% Bowman (QLD) | | 38 | | 58.9% Lingiari (NT) | | 42.8% Wannon (VIC) | | 37 | | 59.0% Isaacs (VIC) | | 42.3% Higgins (VIC) | | 36 | | 59.5% Ballarat (VIC) | | 42.2% Hinkler (QLD) | | 35 | | 59.6% Bruce (VIC) | | 41.7% Barker (SA) | | 34 | | 59.7% Wakefield (SA) | | 41.6% Calare (NSW) | | 33 | | 59.9% Charlton (NSW) | | 41.2% Wentworth (NSW) | | 32 | | 60.2% Corio (VIC) | | 41.1% Flinders (VIC) | | 31 | | 60.3% Jagajaga (VIC) | | 40.8% Fairfax (QLD) | | 30 | | 60.4% Kingsford Smith (NSW) | | 40.8% Canning (WA) | | 29 | | 60.8% Makin (SA) | | 40.8% Kooyong (VIC) | | 28 | | 60.9% McMahon (NSW) | | 40.1% Indi (VIC) | | 27 | | 61.3% Fraser (ACT) | | 40.1% Fisher (QLD) | | 26 | | 61.7% Adelaide (SA) | | 40.0% North Sydney (NSW) | | 25 | | 61.8% Shortland (NSW) | | 39.9% Hume (NSW) | | 24 | | 62.1% Werriwa (NSW) | | 39.7% Forrest (WA) | | 23 | | 62.1% Barton (NSW) | | 38.9% Wright (QLD) | | 22 | | 62.6% Throsby (NSW) | | 38.7% Cook (NSW) | | 21 | | 62.9% Hunter (NSW) | | 38.1% Durack (WA) | | 20 | | 62.9% Holt (VIC) | | 37.5% Pearce (WA) | | 19 | | 63.0% Newcastle (NSW) | | 36.3% Warringah (NSW) | | 18 | | 63.8% Blaxland (NSW) | | 36.1% McPherson (QLD) | | 17 | | 64.1% Cunningham (NSW) | | 36.1% Moore (WA) | | 16 | | 64.3% Hotham (VIC) | | 35.5% Groom (QLD) | | 15 | | 64.4% Denison (TAS) | | 35.4% Mitchell (NSW) | | 14 | | 65.4% Sydney (NSW) | | 35.3% Wide Bay (QLD) | | 13 | | 65.5% Watson (NSW) | | 34.8% Tangney (WA) | | 12 | | 66.6% Maribyrnong (VIC) | | 34.7% Berowra (NSW) | | 11 | | 66.8% Lalor (VIC) | | 33.9% Farrer (NSW) | | 10 | | 67.4% Chifley (NSW) | | 32.8% Fadden (QLD) | | 9 | | 69.8% Fowler (NSW) | | 32.7% Mackellar (NSW) | | 8 | | 70.6% Calwell (VIC) | | 31.7% Curtin (WA) | | 7 | | 71.9% Grayndler (NSW) | | 31.6% OConnor (WA) | | 6 | | 72.2% Scullin (VIC) | | 31.5% Riverina (NSW) | | 5 | | 72.5% Gorton (VIC) | | 31.1% Murray (VIC) | | 4 | | 72.8% Gellibrand (VIC) | | 30.8% Bradfield (NSW) | | 3 | | 72.9% Port Adelaide (SA) | | 29.9% Moncrieff (QLD) | | 2 | | 73.7% Wills (VIC) | | 29.5% Maranoa (QLD) | | 1 | | 77.3% Batman (VIC) | | 28.0% Mallee (VIC) | | | |
IND/GRN Ahead
Leader 2PP shown | | | | 4 | | 74.3% New England (NSW)
versus COA | | | | 3 | | 73.9% Lyne (NSW)
versus COA | | | | 2 | | 66.3% Kennedy (QLD)
versus ALP | | | | 1 | | 49.0% Melbourne (VIC)
versus GRN | | |
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Senate (Half-Senate Election)
Safe Hung Senate
| Update as at 23 Aug 2010 (1am) [Election Results] |
| Cumulative | ALP | COA | GRN | Xeno. |
| Preferences | 32 | 33 | 9 | 1 |
| Near Quota | 33 | 33 | 8 | 1 |
| Quota | 30 | 31 | 5 | 1 |
| Continuing | 16 | 16 | 3 | 1 |
| Close last seats: VIC: too close to call. TAS: COA vs. ALP. |
Nation-wide primary vote polls:
ALP: 38.5% | COA: 42.5% | GRN: 12% |
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The Senate is notoriously impossible to predict. The numbers here are based on recent Newspoll / The Australian polls of first preferences and a
subsequent "approximation" of the preference distribution in line with the last election. The story here seems to be that
there will be only small movements in the big parties, but it seems that the Greens will likely hold the balance in the parliament.
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| This Election (Cumulative) | | | Senate Total (Cumulative) |
| After Preferences |
| | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO | | | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO |
| Total | 16 | 17 | 6 | 0 | | | 32 | 33 | 9 | 1 |
| NSW | 2 | 3 | 1 | | | | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| QLD | 2 | 3 | 1 | | | | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| SA | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| VIC | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
| WA | 2 | 3 | 1 | | | | 4 | 6 | 2 | |
| TAS | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| NT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| ACT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
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| Near Quota Seats |
| | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO | | | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO |
| Total | 17 | 17 | 5 | 0 | | | 33 | 33 | 8 | 1 |
| NSW | 2 | 3 | 0 | | | | 5 | 6 | 0 | |
| QLD | 2 | 3 | 1 | | | | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| SA | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| VIC | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
| WA | 2 | 3 | 1 | | | | 4 | 6 | 2 | |
| TAS | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| NT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| ACT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Direct Quota Seats |
| | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO | | | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO |
| Total | 14 | 15 | 2 | 0 | | | 30 | 31 | 5 | 1 |
| NSW | 2 | 2 | 0 | | | | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| QLD | 2 | 2 | 0 | | | | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| SA | 2 | 2 | 0 | | | | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| VIC | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
| WA | 2 | 3 | 0 | | | | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| TAS | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| NT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| ACT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
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| Primary Vote (Poll or Vote) | | | Senate Terms Not Expiring |
| | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO | | | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO |
| Total | 38.5 | 42.5 | 12 | | | | 16 | 16 | 3 | 1 |
| NSW | 37.08 | 39.12 | 10.42 | | | | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| QLD | 29.75 | 41.38 | 12.82 | | | | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| SA | 38.97 | 36.86 | 13.31 | 0 | | | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| VIC | 38.66 | 34.29 | 14.36 | | | | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| WA | 29.75 | 43.83 | 14.01 | | | | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| TAS | 42.01 | 32.63 | 20.21 | | | | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| NT | n/a | n/a | n/a | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| ACT | n/a | n/a | n/a | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
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