House of Representatives
Close - Lean ALP
| Update as at 29 Jul 2010 (10:00pm) | | Cumulative | ALP | COA | Indep. | GRN | | Poll: Rounding Error | 77 | 70 | 3 | 0 | | Poll: Advantage | 77 | 68 | 3 | 0 | | Poll: Marginal | 65 | 58 | 3 | 0 | | Poll: Likely | 56 | 40 | 3 | 0 | | Poll: Safe | 39 | 24 | 3 | 0 |
| Two Party Preferred Poll (National): 52.3% | NSW: 53.3%. QLD: 46.8%. VIC: 56.3%.
SA: 52.3%.WA: 45.8%. TAS: 55.8%.
ACT: 62.3%. NT: 53.8%. |
|
The recent opinion polls by Newspoll / The Australian seem to suggest that the ALP has recovered some of its primary votes that recently went to the Greens, with the coalition back at where they were when the recent bout of upheavals started. The net change on the 2PP vote is small.
Taking geographic and other electoral variables into consideration (including incumbent contesting reelection), the scenario on the left unfolds. Percentages are ALP 2 Party-Preferred percentages based on polls and assumed geographic distribution.
|
|
Legend:
Current Parliament after Redistribution:
ALP held | notional ALP held | COA held | notional COA held
Progress of counting:
 ALP win |  ALP ahead |  COA win |  COA ahead
 GRN win |  GRN ahead |  IND win |  IND ahead
|
|
|
Show betting odds |
|
| | ALP Ahead | | COA Ahead | | 85 | | | | | | 84 | | | | | | 83 | | | | | | 82 | | | | | | 81 | | | | | | 80 | | | | | | 79 | | | | | | 78 | | | | | | 77 | | 50.6%  Bass (TAS) | | | | 76 | | 50.7% Longman (QLD) | | | | 75 | | 51.0% Corangamite (VIC) | | | | 74 | | 51.0% Melbourne (VIC)
versus GRN | | | | 73 | | 51.0% Hasluck (WA) | | | | 72 | | 51.1% Bennelong (NSW) | | | | 71 | | 51.3% Petrie (QLD) | | | | 70 | | 51.7% Bonner (QLD) | | 49.6% La Trobe (VIC) | | 69 | | 51.9% Brisbane (QLD) | | 49.5% Forde (QLD) | | 68 | | 52.0% Eden-Monaro (NSW) | | 49.3% Solomon (NT) | | 67 | | 52.0% Page (NSW) | | 49.1% Dickson (QLD) | | 66 | | 52.1% McEwen (VIC) | | 48.8% Robertson (NSW) | | 65 | | 53.1% Braddon (TAS) | | 48.8% Macquarie (NSW) | | 64 | | 53.3% Moreton (QLD) | | 48.8% Macarthur (NSW) | | 63 | | 53.5% Greenway (NSW) | | 48.6% Swan (WA) | | 62 | | 53.6% Dobell (NSW) | | 48.4% Flynn (QLD) | | 61 | | 54.0% Kingston (SA) | | 47.9% Gilmore (NSW) | | 60 | | 54.3% Franklin (TAS) | | 47.8% Hughes (NSW) | | 59 | | 54.5% Deakin (VIC) | | 47.5% Dawson (QLD) | | 58 | | 54.5% Blair (QLD) | | 47.3% Paterson (NSW) | | 57 | | 54.6% Hindmarsh (SA) | | 47.1% Dunkley (VIC) | | 56 | | 55.9% Lilley (QLD) | | 47.1% Aston (VIC) | | 55 | | 56.0% Lindsay (NSW) | | 46.8% Stirling (WA) | | 54 | | 56.1% Brand (WA) | | 46.8% Cowan (WA) | | 53 | | 56.1% Wakefield (SA) | | 46.6% Sturt (SA) | | 52 | | 57.2% Makin (SA) | | 46.5% Herbert (QLD) | | 51 | | 58.1% Adelaide (SA) | | 46.4% Cowper (NSW) | | 50 | | 58.1% Perth (WA) | | 46.3% McMillan (VIC) | | 49 | | 58.4% Oxley (QLD) | | 46.2% Leichhardt (QLD) | | 48 | | 58.5% Richmond (NSW) | | 46.0% Ryan (QLD) | | 47 | | 59.0% Parramatta (NSW) | | 45.2% Gippsland (VIC) | | 46 | | 59.0% Rankin (QLD) | | 45.2% Casey (VIC) | | 45 | | 59.0% Lyons (TAS) | | 45.1% Bowman (QLD) | | 44 | | 59.1% Capricornia (QLD) | | 45.1% Menzies (VIC) | | 43 | | 59.1% Fremantle (WA) | | 45.1% Goldstein (VIC) | | 42 | | 59.2% Bendigo (VIC) | | 44.6% Wannon (VIC) | | 41 | | 59.4% Banks (NSW) | | 44.6% Boothby (SA) | | 40 | | 59.4% Griffith (QLD) | | 44.2% Calare (NSW) | | 39 | | 60.3% Melbourne Ports (VIC) | | 44.1% Higgins (VIC) | | 38 | | 60.3% Lingiari (NT) | | 43.8% Wentworth (NSW) | | 37 | | 60.5% Chisholm (VIC) | | 43.7% Canning (WA) | | 36 | | 60.7% Canberra (ACT) | | 43.6% Hinkler (QLD) | | 35 | | 60.8% Reid (NSW) | | 43.1% Grey (SA) | | 34 | | 60.8% Isaacs (VIC) | | 42.9% Flinders (VIC) | | 33 | | 61.3% Ballarat (VIC) | | 42.6% Forrest (WA) | | 32 | | 61.4% Bruce (VIC) | | 42.6% Kooyong (VIC) | | 31 | | 62.0% Corio (VIC) | | 42.6% North Sydney (NSW) | | 30 | | 62.1% Jagajaga (VIC) | | 42.5% Hume (NSW) | | 29 | | 62.5% Charlton (NSW) | | 42.2% Fairfax (QLD) | | 28 | | 63.0% Kingsford Smith (NSW) | | 41.9% Indi (VIC) | | 27 | | 63.5% McMahon (NSW) | | 41.5% Fisher (QLD) | | 26 | | 63.9% Fraser (ACT) | | 41.3% Cook (NSW) | | 25 | | 64.4% Shortland (NSW) | | 41.0% Durack (WA) | | 24 | | 64.7% Werriwa (NSW) | | 40.5% Mayo (SA) | | 23 | | 64.7% Barton (NSW) | | 40.4% Pearce (WA) | | 22 | | 64.7% Holt (VIC) | | 40.3% Wright (QLD) | | 21 | | 64.9% Denison (TAS) | | 39.0% Moore (WA) | | 20 | | 65.2% Throsby (NSW) | | 38.9% Warringah (NSW) | | 19 | | 65.5% Hunter (NSW) | | 38.1% Barker (SA) | | 18 | | 65.6% Newcastle (NSW) | | 38.0% Mitchell (NSW) | | 17 | | 66.1% Hotham (VIC) | | 37.7% Tangney (WA) | | 16 | | 66.4% Blaxland (NSW) | | 37.5% McPherson (QLD) | | 15 | | 66.7% Cunningham (NSW) | | 37.3% Berowra (NSW) | | 14 | | 68.0% Sydney (NSW) | | 36.9% Groom (QLD) | | 13 | | 68.1% Watson (NSW) | | 36.7% Wide Bay (QLD) | | 12 | | 68.4% Maribyrnong (VIC) | | 36.5% Farrer (NSW) | | 11 | | 68.6% Lalor (VIC) | | 35.3% Mackellar (NSW) | | 10 | | 69.0% Chifley (NSW) | | 34.6% Curtin (WA) | | 9 | | 69.3% Port Adelaide (SA) | | 34.5% OConnor (WA) | | 8 | | 72.4% Fowler (NSW) | | 34.2% Fadden (QLD) | | 7 | | 72.4% Calwell (VIC) | | 34.1% Riverina (NSW) | | 6 | | 74.0% Scullin (VIC) | | 33.9% Parkes (NSW) | | 5 | | 74.3% Gorton (VIC) | | 33.4% Bradfield (NSW) | | 4 | | 74.5% Grayndler (NSW) | | 32.9% Murray (VIC) | | 3 | | 74.6% Gellibrand (VIC) | | 31.3% Moncrieff (QLD) | | 2 | | 75.5% Wills (VIC) | | 30.9% Maranoa (QLD) | | 1 | | 79.1% Batman (VIC) | | 29.8% Mallee (VIC) | | | |
IND/GRN Ahead
Leader 2PP shown | | | | 3 | | 74.3% New England (NSW)
versus COA | | | | 2 | | 73.9% Lyne (NSW)
versus COA | | | | 1 | | 66.3% Kennedy (QLD)
versus ALP | | |
| |
Senate (Half-Senate Election)
Safe Hung Senate
| Update as at 29 Jul 2010 (10:00pm) |
| Cumulative | ALP | COA | GRN | Xeno. |
| Preferences | 34 | 34 | 7 | 1 |
| Near Quota | 33 | 34 | 4 | 1 |
| Quota | 31 | 32 | 4 | 1 |
| Continuing | 16 | 16 | 3 | 1 |
| Close last seats: TAS: ALP vs COA. |
Nation-wide primary vote polls:
ALP: 40% | COA: 42% | GRN: 12% |
|
The Senate is notoriously impossible to predict. The numbers here are based on recent Newspoll / The Australian polls of first preferences and a
subsequent "approximation" of the preference distribution in line with the last election. The story here seems to be that
there will be only small movements in the big parties, but it seems that the Greens will likely hold the balance in the parliament.
|
| This Election (Cumulative) | | | Senate Total (Cumulative) |
| After Preferences |
| | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO | | | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO |
| Total | 18 | 18 | 4 | 0 | | | 34 | 34 | 7 | 1 |
| NSW | 3 | 3 | 0 | | | | 6 | 6 | 0 | |
| QLD | 3 | 3 | 0 | | | | 6 | 6 | 0 | |
| SA | 2 | 3 | 1 | | | | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| VIC | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
| WA | 2 | 3 | 1 | | | | 4 | 6 | 2 | |
| TAS | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| NT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| ACT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| Near Quota Seats |
| | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO | | | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO |
| Total | 17 | 18 | 1 | 0 | | | 33 | 34 | 4 | 1 |
| NSW | 3 | 3 | 0 | | | | 6 | 6 | 0 | |
| QLD | 3 | 3 | 0 | | | | 6 | 6 | 0 | |
| SA | 2 | 3 | 0 | | | | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| VIC | 3 | 2 | 0 | | | | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
| WA | 2 | 3 | 0 | | | | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| TAS | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| NT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| ACT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Direct Quota Seats |
| | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO | | | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO |
| Total | 15 | 16 | 1 | 0 | | | 31 | 32 | 4 | 1 |
| NSW | 2 | 2 | 0 | | | | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| QLD | 2 | 3 | 0 | | | | 5 | 6 | 0 | |
| SA | 2 | 2 | 0 | | | | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| VIC | 3 | 2 | 0 | | | | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
| WA | 2 | 3 | 0 | | | | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| TAS | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| NT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| ACT | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| Primary Vote (Poll or Vote) | | | Senate Terms Not Expiring |
| | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO | | | ALP | COA | GRN | XENO |
| Total | 40 | 42 | 12 | | | | 16 | 16 | 3 | 1 |
| NSW | 41 | 42 | 11 | | | | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| QLD | 40 | 44 | 8 | | | | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| SA | 37 | 42 | 11 | 0 | | | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| VIC | 43 | 40 | 13 | | | | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| WA | 37 | 46 | 12 | | | | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| TAS | 40 | 40 | 21 | | | | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| NT | n/a | n/a | n/a | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| ACT | n/a | n/a | n/a | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
|
