Australian Federal Election: 21 August 2010

House of Representatives

State of Election based on Betting Odds and Counted Votes

Bets on Overall Election Outcome Betting Organisation ALP probability of winning COA probability of winning Sportsbet Australia 60.5 % 39.5 % Centrebet 63.0 % 37.0 % Sports Alive 62.2 % 37.8 % IAS Bet 60.5 % 39.5 % SportingBet Decider 61.6 % 38.4 % Average 61.6 % 38.4 % With Possibility of Hung Parliament 0 Centre- bet Sports Bet ALP majority 40.2 % 39.1 % Hung parliament 36.3 % 35.4 % COA majority 23.6 % 25.5 %

Key Probabilities Milestone Key Seat Probability ALP retains government 76th ALP seat ALP: 51%  La Trobe (VIC) Hung parliament (GRN win Melbourne) 71st COA seat COA: 49%  Solomon (NT) Hung parliament (ALP wins Melbourne) 72nd COA seat COA: 49%  La Trobe (VIC) COA gains government 76th COA seat COA: 38%  Longman (QLD) Number of Seats by Probability of Winning Probability: Count: >71% Called >61% >56% >52% Even >45% >40% >30% Expect* ALP 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 COA 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 Others 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

Legend: Current Parliament after Redistribution: ALP held | notional ALP held | COA held | notional COA held | IND held Progress of counting:  ALP win |  ALP ahead |  COA win |  COA ahead  GRN win |  GRN ahead |  IND win |  IND ahead

ALP Winning Probability  greater than 30%				Coalition Winning Probability  greater than 30%				Greens/Indep. Winning Probability  greater than 10%
87		31%  Canning (WA)		87				6		12%  Sydney (NSW)
86		31%  Flynn (QLD)		86				5		15%  Parkes (NSW)
85		31%  Hughes (NSW)		85				4		63%  Melbourne (VIC)
84		32%  Swan (WA)		84				3		91%  Kennedy (QLD)
83		37%  Melbourne (VIC)		83				2		91%  Lyne (NSW)
82		38%  Boothby (SA)		82		32%  Deakin (VIC)		1		92%  New England (NSW)
81		38%  Bennelong (NSW)		81		32%  Bass (TAS)
80		41%  Herbert (QLD)		80		33%  Brisbane (QLD)
79		42%  Dawson (QLD)		79		33%  Page (NSW)
78		43%  Hasluck (WA)		78		34%  Dobell (NSW)
77		45%  Lindsay (NSW)		77		38%  Corangamite (VIC)
76		51%  La Trobe (VIC)		76		38%  Longman (QLD)
75		51%  Solomon (NT)		75		40%  Bonner (QLD)
74		55%  Forde (QLD)		74		41%  Petrie (QLD)
73		59%  Petrie (QLD)		73		45%  Forde (QLD)
72		60%  Bonner (QLD)		72		49%  La Trobe (VIC)
71		62%  Corangamite (VIC)		71		49%  Solomon (NT)
70		62%  Longman (QLD)		70		55%  Lindsay (NSW)
69		66%  Dobell (NSW)		69		57%  Hasluck (WA)
68		67%  Brisbane (QLD)		68		58%  Dawson (QLD)
67		67%  Page (NSW)		67		59%  Herbert (QLD)
66		68%  Deakin (VIC)		66		62%  Boothby (SA)
65		68%  Bass (TAS)		65		62%  Bennelong (NSW)
64		70%  Moreton (QLD)		64		68%  Swan (WA)
63		71%  Greenway (NSW)		63		69%  Canning (WA)
62		74%  McEwen (VIC)		62		69%  Flynn (QLD)
61		77%  Blair (QLD)		61		69%  Hughes (NSW)
60		77%  Eden-Monaro (NSW)		60		71%  Macarthur (NSW)
59		79%  Brand (WA)		59		72%  Leichhardt (QLD)
58		79%  Braddon (TAS)		58		72%  Dickson (QLD)
57		80%  Franklin (TAS)		57		72%  Macquarie (NSW)
56		84%  Richmond (NSW)		56		75%  Gilmore (NSW)
55		87%  Lyons (TAS)		55		77%  Ryan (QLD)
54		87%  Wakefield (SA)		54		77%  Paterson (NSW)
53		87%  Parramatta (NSW)		53		78%  Stirling (WA)
52		88%  Melbourne Ports (VIC)		52		78%  Sturt (SA)
51		88%  Bendigo (VIC)		51		78%  Cowper (NSW)
50		88%  Kingston (SA)		50		79%  Dunkley (VIC)
49		88%  Sydney (NSW)		49		79%  Robertson (NSW)
48		89%  Isaacs (VIC)		48		81%  Aston (VIC)
47		89%  Hindmarsh (SA)		47		81%  Bowman (QLD)
46		90%  Corio (VIC)		46		82%  Cowan (WA)
45		90%  Calwell (VIC)		45		82%  Hinkler (QLD)
44		90%  Bruce (VIC)		44		85%  Wright (QLD)
43		90%  Makin (SA)		43		85%  Parkes (NSW)
42		90%  Lilley (QLD)		42		87%  McMillan (VIC)
41		90%  Griffith (QLD)		41		88%  Forrest (WA)
40		90%  Banks (NSW)		40		88%  Gippsland (VIC)
39		90%  Canberra (ACT)		39		88%  Casey (VIC)
38		91%  Perth (WA)		38		88%  Grey (SA)
37		91%  Fremantle (WA)		37		88%  Fisher (QLD)
36		91%  Wills (VIC)		36		88%  Fairfax (QLD)
35		91%  Jagajaga (VIC)		35		89%  Wentworth (NSW)
34		91%  Holt (VIC)		34		89%  Calare (NSW)
33		91%  Reid (NSW)		33		90%  Tangney (WA)
32		91%  Fowler (NSW)		32		90%  Menzies (VIC)
31		92%  Scullin (VIC)		31		90%  Cook (NSW)
30		92%  Maribyrnong (VIC)		30		91%  Wannon (VIC)
29		92%  Hotham (VIC)		29		91%  Kooyong (VIC)
28		92%  Gorton (VIC)		28		91%  Indi (VIC)
27		92%  Chisholm (VIC)		27		91%  Higgins (VIC)
26		92%  Ballarat (VIC)		26		91%  Flinders (VIC)
25		92%  Port Adelaide (SA)		25		91%  Wide Bay (QLD)
24		92%  Rankin (QLD)		24		91%  McPherson (QLD)
23		92%  Oxley (QLD)		23		91%  Groom (QLD)
22		92%  Lingiari (NT)		22		91%  Hume (NSW)
21		92%  Werriwa (NSW)		21		92%  Pearce (WA)
20		92%  Watson (NSW)		20		92%  Moore (WA)
19		92%  Throsby (NSW)		19		92%  Durack (WA)
18		92%  Shortland (NSW)		18		92%  Murray (VIC)
17		92%  Newcastle (NSW)		17		92%  Mallee (VIC)
16		92%  McMahon (NSW)		16		92%  Goldstein (VIC)
15		92%  Kingsford Smith (NSW)		15		92%  Moncrieff (QLD)
14		92%  Hunter (NSW)		14		92%  Maranoa (QLD)
13		92%  Grayndler (NSW)		13		92%  Fadden (QLD)
12		92%  Cunningham (NSW)		12		92%  Warringah (NSW)
11		92%  Chifley (NSW)		11		92%  North Sydney (NSW)
10		92%  Charlton (NSW)		10		92%  Mitchell (NSW)
9		92%  Blaxland (NSW)		9		92%  Farrer (NSW)
8		92%  Barton (NSW)		8		92%  Berowra (NSW)
7		92%  Fraser (ACT)		7		93%  Barker (SA)
6		93%  Lalor (VIC)		6		93%  Riverina (NSW)
5		93%  Gellibrand (VIC)		5		93%  Mackellar (NSW)
4		93%  Adelaide (SA)		4		94%  Bradfield (NSW)
3		93%  Capricornia (QLD)		3		95%  Mayo (SA)
2		96%  Denison (TAS)		2		96%  Curtin (WA)
1		97%  Batman (VIC)		1		97%  OConnor (WA)