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30/08: President: Biden 69% | Senate: tossup | House: lean Dem

Posted on August 31, 2020August 31, 2020 by data-art

Data updated 30 August 2020. President: Biden slightly favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook). House: lean Dem.

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DemocratRepublican

President: States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>80%
210
MI
80%
226
-7.0
49/42
9.3%
NV
77%
232
-7.4
48/40
19.2%
ME
76%
234
-10.3
50/40
MN
70%
244
-5.3
50/45
1.8%
PA
69%
264
-5.4
49/44
10.3%
NH
69%
268
-8.7
51/42
Overall
69%

-8.2
50/42
WI
67%
278
-5.9
49/43
11.7%
FL
61%
307
-5.2
49/44
12.9%
NE2
57%
308
-7.0
51/44
AZ
53%
319
-3.9
48/44
23.3%
NC
54%
219
-1.6
48/46
62.5%
OH
58%
204
+0.6
46/47
46.1%
ME2
66%
186
+0.0
44/44
50.0%
GA
68%
185
+0.6
46/46
46.4%
IA
70%
169
+1.3
45/46
42.7%
TX
77%
163
+1.3
46/47
41.3%
Rep
>80%
125

Electoral Scoreboard. Race classification by Cook Political Report, forecast win likelihood by 538.

SolidLikelyLeanToss-UpLeanLikelySolid
18821830818712577
DC
VT
HI
MA
CA
MD
NY
WA
DE
IL
RI
CT
NJ
ME1
OR
NM
VA 92%
CO 85%
NV 77%
ME 76%
MI 80% (234)
MN 70% (244)
PA 69% (264)
NH 69% (268)
Overall 69%
WI 67% (278)
FL 61% (307)
NE2 57% (308)
AZ 53% (319)
NC 54% (219)
ME2 66% (204)
GA 68% (203)
OH 58% (187)
IA 70% (169)
TX 77% (163)
AK 81%
SC 88%
MO 88%
MT 88%
KS 92%
IN 95%
UT 95%
MS
LA
AR
NE1
TN
SD
KY
NE
AL
ND
ID
OK
WV
WY
NE3

Senate: Italics indicates Democrats are the incumbent party. Race classification by Cook Political Report, polling averages by Real Clear Politics. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

SolidLikelyLeanToss-UpLeanLikelySolid
454547474340
MN
NM

DE
IL
MA
NH
NJ
OR
RI
VA
+35
MI (46)
AZ -7.4 (47)
CO (48)
NC -4.8 (49)
ME -4.5 (50)
IA -0.3 (51)
MT +2.0 (49)
GA (Perdue) +4.0 (48)
AL (47)
GA (Loeffler) (46)
KS (45)

SC (44)
KY
TX

AK
AR
ID
LA
MS
NE
OK
SD
TN
WV
WY

+30

House: Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.

SolidLikelyLeanToss-UpLeanLikelySolid
190207221186172155
190
seats
17
seats
14
seats
28
seats
14
seats
17
seats
155
seats

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