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09/09: President: Biden 74% | Senate: tossup | House: lean Dem

Posted on September 9, 2020September 9, 2020 by data-art

Data updated 30 August 2020. President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook). House: lean Dem.

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DemocratRepublican

President: States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>80%
232
ME
79%
234
-10.2
51/41
WI
78%
244
-7.5
51/43
MN
78%
254
-6.2
51/44
NH
74%
258
-8.5
52/43
Overall
74%

-7.8
51/43
PA
74%
278
-5.1
50/45
3.6%
AZ
65%
289
-5.2
49/44
11.8%
NE2
61%
290
-6.3
51/45
FL
58%
319
-2.3
48/46
29.1%
NC
55%
334
-1.8
48/47
32.7%
OH
55%
204
+0.8
47/48
42.9%
ME2
63%
186
+1.7
45/46
40.9%
IA
67%
185
+1.4
45/47
41.3%
GA
67%
179
+1.6
46/47
38.9%
TX
70%
163
+1.0
47/48
41.1%
Rep
>80%
125

Electoral Scoreboard. Race classification by Cook Political Report, forecast win likelihood by 538.

SolidLikelyLeanToss-UpLeanLikelySolid
18821830818712577
DC
VT
MA
CA
NY
MD
HI
IL
DE
WA
RI
CT
NJ
ME1
NM
OR
VA 94%
CO 86%
NV 80%
ME 79%
MI 85% (234)
WI 78% (244)
MN 78% (254)
NH 74% (258)
Overall 74%
PA 74% (278)
NE2 61% (279)
FL 58% (308)
AZ 65% (319)
NC 55% (334)
ME2 63% (204)
GA 67% (203)
OH 55% (187)
IA 67% (169)
TX 70% (163)
AK 80%
SC 87%
MT 88%
MO 89%
KS 93%
UT 95%
IN 95%
MS
LA
AR
NE1
TN
SD
KY
AL
ND
NE
OK
ID
WV
WY
NE3

Senate: Italics indicates Democrats are the incumbent party. Race classification by Cook Political Report, polling averages are raw averages of polls published on 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

SolidLikelyLeanToss-UpLeanLikelySolid
454547474340
MN
NM

DE
IL
MA
NH
NJ
OR
RI
VA
+35
MI (46)
AZ -11.3 (47)
CO -9.0 (48)
ME -4.5 (49)
NC -3.0 (50)
IA -2.0 (51)
GA (P) +1.0 (49)
MT +5.0 (48)
AL (47)
GA (Loeffler) (46)
KS (45)

SC (44)
KY
TX

AK
AR
ID
LA
MS
NE
OK
SD
TN
WV
WY

+30

House: Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.

SolidLikelyLeanToss-UpLeanLikelySolid
190207221186172155
190
seats
17
seats
14
seats
28
seats
14
seats
17
seats
155
seats

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