Data updated 30 August 2020. President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook). House: lean Dem.
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| Democrat | Republican |
President: States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)
| State Prob EV Polls ..D/R UVN | Dem >80% 232 |
79% 234 -10.2 51/41 |
78% 244 -7.5 51/43 |
78% 254 -6.2 51/44 |
74% 258 -8.5 52/43 |
74% -7.8 51/43 |
74% 278 -5.1 50/45 3.6% |
65% 289 -5.2 49/44 11.8% |
61% 290 -6.3 51/45 |
58% 319 -2.3 48/46 29.1% |
55% 334 -1.8 48/47 32.7% |
55% 204 +0.8 47/48 42.9% |
63% 186 +1.7 45/46 40.9% |
67% 185 +1.4 45/47 41.3% |
67% 179 +1.6 46/47 38.9% |
70% 163 +1.0 47/48 41.1% |
Rep >80% 125 |
Electoral Scoreboard. Race classification by Cook Political Report, forecast win likelihood by 538.
| Solid | Likely | Lean | Toss-Up | Lean | Likely | Solid |
| 188 | 218 | 308 | 187 | 125 | 77 | |
| DC VT MA CA NY MD HI IL DE WA RI CT NJ ME1 NM OR |
VA 94% CO 86% NV 80% ME 79% |
MI 85% (234) WI 78% (244) MN 78% (254) NH 74% (258) Overall 74% PA 74% (278) NE2 61% (279) FL 58% (308) |
AZ 65% (319) NC 55% (334) ME2 63% (204) GA 67% (203) |
OH 55% (187) IA 67% (169) TX 70% (163) |
AK 80% SC 87% MT 88% MO 89% KS 93% UT 95% IN 95% |
MS LA AR NE1 TN SD KY AL ND NE OK ID WV WY NE3 |
Senate: Italics indicates Democrats are the incumbent party. Race classification by Cook Political Report, polling averages are raw averages of polls published on 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)
| Solid | Likely | Lean | Toss-Up | Lean | Likely | Solid |
| 45 | 45 | 47 | 47 | 43 | 40 | |
| MN NM DE IL MA NH NJ OR RI VA +35 | MI (46) AZ -11.3 (47) | CO -9.0 (48) ME -4.5 (49) NC -3.0 (50) IA -2.0 (51) GA (P) +1.0 (49) MT +5.0 (48) | AL (47) GA (Loeffler) (46) KS (45) SC (44) | KY TX AK | AR ID LA MS NE OK SD TN WV WY +30 |
House: Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.
| Solid | Likely | Lean | Toss-Up | Lean | Likely | Solid |
| 190 | 207 | 221 | 186 | 172 | 155 | |
| 190 seats | 17 seats | 14 seats | 28 seats | 14 seats | 17 seats | 155 seats |