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18/09: President: Biden 77% | Senate: Dem 57% | House: lean Dem

Posted on September 19, 2020September 19, 2020 by data-art

President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook).

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DemocratRepublican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
238
NV
80%
244
-5.5
46/41
28.3%
WI
80%
254
-6.6
50/44
PA
77%
274
-4.9
50/45
2.0%
NH
73%
278
-6.7
50/43
4.1%
AZ
68%
289
-4.8
49/44
18.4%
NE2
62%
290
-4.2
50/46
2.3%
FL
60%
319
-2.1
48/46
32.8%
NC
54%
334
-1.3
47/46
40.0%
ME2
51%
204
-2.8
48/45
69.4%
OH
55%
203
+1.4
47/48
37.5%
GA
65%
185
+1.4
46/48
39.1%
IA
67%
169
+1.8
45/47
38.8%
TX
69%
163
+1.2
46/48
40.0%
AK
80%
125
+5.3
45/50
Rep
>85%
122

All states:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
EV
PollsDemRepUVN
District of Columbia100%Solid D3-85.390.95.6
New York100%Solid D32-26.860.233.4
Maryland100%Solid D42-26.060.334.3
Massachusetts100%Solid D53-34.163.929.8
Delaware100%Solid D56-19.357.438.1
California100%Solid D111-31.661.930.3
Illinois100%Solid D131-22.460.438.0
Vermont99%Solid D134-36.967.130.2
Washington99%Solid D146-26.259.533.3
Rhode Island99%Solid D150-25.562.036.5
Hawaii99%Solid D154-25.756.630.9
Connecticut99%Solid D161-20.855.034.2
ME-197%Solid D162-23.056.833.8
New Jersey97%Solid D176-19.555.936.4
Virginia96%Likely D189-11.051.640.6
New Mexico94%Solid D194-13.154.241.1
Oregon92%Solid D201-16.457.040.6
Michigan88%Lean D217-7.749.842.12.5%
Maine88%Likely D219-14.154.039.9
Minnesota87%Lean D229-8.851.042.2
Colorado87%Likely D238-11.652.340.7
Nevada80%Lean D244-5.546.440.928.3%
Wisconsin80%Lean D254-6.650.243.6
Pennsylvania77%Lean D274-4.949.945.02.0%
New Hampshire73%Lean D278-6.749.743.04.1%
Arizona68%Lean D289-4.848.643.818.4%
NE-262%Lean D290-4.249.945.72.3%
Florida60%Toss-Up319-2.148.045.932.8%
North Carolina54%Toss-Up334-1.347.446.140.0%
ME-251%Toss-Up204-2.847.845.069.4%
Ohio55%Lean R203+1.446.547.937.5%
Georgia65%Toss-Up185+1.446.147.539.1%
Iowa67%Lean R169+1.845.146.938.8%
Texas69%Lean R163+1.246.447.640.0%
Alaska80%Likely R125+5.345.150.4
Mississippi87%Solid R122+12.241.253.4
Montana87%Likely R116+8.443.451.8
South Carolina88%Likely R113+7.043.950.9
Missouri90%Likely R104+6.443.750.1
Louisiana92%Solid R94+13.539.653.1
Kansas93%Likely R86+9.141.450.5
NE-194%Solid R80+5.644.750.3
Arkansas94%Solid R79+2.845.248.029.4%
Indiana96%Likely R73+14.239.053.2
Utah96%Likely R62+11.636.948.510.3%
Tennessee96%Solid R56+12.141.053.1
South Dakota97%Solid R45+19.339.658.9
Alabama98%Solid R42+18.638.757.3
Kentucky98%Solid R33+16.239.755.9
Nebraska99%Solid R25+19.239.558.7
North Dakota99%Solid R23+14.739.253.9
West Virginia99%Solid R20+29.233.462.6
Oklahoma99%Solid R15+23.135.058.1
Idaho100%Solid R8+27.134.962.0
Wyoming100%Solid R4+39.428.668.0
NE-3100%Solid R1+46.425.672.0

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State
Prob
Seats
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
45
MN
84%
46
MI
83%
47
CO
78%
48
ME
74%
49
NC
71%
50
IA
53%
50
MT
61%
49
KS
68%
48
GA1
70%
47
SC
75%
46
AK
78%
45
GA2
83%
44
Rep
>85%
43

All States:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
Seats
PollsDemRepUVN
D-cont100%Solid D35nrnrnr
RI100%Solid D36+0.00.00.050.0%
MA100%Solid D37+0.00.00.050.0%
DE98%Solid D38+0.00.00.050.0%
IL98%Solid D39+0.00.00.050.0%
NJ97%Solid D40+0.00.00.050.0%
OR97%Solid D41+0.00.00.050.0%
VA96%Solid D42+0.00.00.050.0%
NH94%Solid D43+0.00.00.050.0%
NM86%Solid D44+0.00.00.050.0%
AZ86%Lean D45+0.00.00.050.0%
MN84%Solid D46+0.00.00.050.0%
MI83%Lean D47+0.00.00.050.0%
CO78%Toss-Up48+0.00.00.050.0%
ME74%Toss-Up49+0.00.00.050.0%
NC71%Toss-Up50+0.00.00.050.0%
IA53%Toss-Up50+0.00.00.050.0%
MT61%Toss-Up49+0.00.00.050.0%
KS68%Lean R48+0.00.00.050.0%
GA170%Toss-Up47+0.00.00.050.0%
SC75%Lean R46+0.00.00.050.0%
AK78%Likely R45+0.00.00.050.0%
GA283%Lean R44+0.00.00.050.0%
TX86%Likely R43+0.00.00.050.0%
MS86%Solid R42+0.00.00.050.0%
TN89%Solid R41+0.00.00.050.0%
AL90%Lean R40+0.00.00.050.0%
KY93%Likely R39+0.00.00.050.0%
LA94%Solid R38+0.00.00.050.0%
NE97%Solid R37+0.00.00.050.0%
ID97%Solid R36+0.00.00.050.0%
SD98%Solid R35+0.00.00.050.0%
OK98%Solid R34+0.00.00.050.0%
WV99%Solid R33+0.00.00.050.0%
WY99%Solid R32+0.00.00.050.0%
AR100%Solid R31+0.00.00.050.0%
R-cont100%Solid R30+0.00.00.050.0%

House

Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.

SolidLikelyLeanToss-UpLeanLikelySolid
190207221186172155
190
seats
17
seats
14
seats
28
seats
14
seats
18
seats
154
seats

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