18/09: President: Biden 77% | Senate: Dem 57% | House: lean Dem

President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook).

Back to the US Election 2020 landing page

Democrat

Republican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State Prob EV Polls ..D/R UVN

Dem >85% 238

NV 80% 244 -5.5 46/41 28.3%

WI 80% 254 -6.6 50/44

PA 77% 274 -4.9 50/45 2.0%

NH 73% 278 -6.7 50/43 4.1%

AZ 68% 289 -4.8 49/44 18.4%

NE2 62% 290 -4.2 50/46 2.3%

FL 60% 319 -2.1 48/46 32.8%

NC 54% 334 -1.3 47/46 40.0%

ME2 51% 204 -2.8 48/45 69.4%

OH 55% 203 +1.4 47/48 37.5%

GA 65% 185 +1.4 46/48 39.1%

IA 67% 169 +1.8 45/47 38.8%

TX 69% 163 +1.2 46/48 40.0%

AK 80% 125 +5.3 45/50

Rep >85% 122

All states:

State

538 Prob

Cook Political

Cum. EV

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN

District of Columbia	100%	Solid D	3	-85.3	90.9	5.6
New York	100%	Solid D	32	-26.8	60.2	33.4
Maryland	100%	Solid D	42	-26.0	60.3	34.3
Massachusetts	100%	Solid D	53	-34.1	63.9	29.8
Delaware	100%	Solid D	56	-19.3	57.4	38.1
California	100%	Solid D	111	-31.6	61.9	30.3
Illinois	100%	Solid D	131	-22.4	60.4	38.0
Vermont	99%	Solid D	134	-36.9	67.1	30.2
Washington	99%	Solid D	146	-26.2	59.5	33.3
Rhode Island	99%	Solid D	150	-25.5	62.0	36.5
Hawaii	99%	Solid D	154	-25.7	56.6	30.9
Connecticut	99%	Solid D	161	-20.8	55.0	34.2
ME-1	97%	Solid D	162	-23.0	56.8	33.8
New Jersey	97%	Solid D	176	-19.5	55.9	36.4
Virginia	96%	Likely D	189	-11.0	51.6	40.6
New Mexico	94%	Solid D	194	-13.1	54.2	41.1
Oregon	92%	Solid D	201	-16.4	57.0	40.6
Michigan	88%	Lean D	217	-7.7	49.8	42.1	2.5%
Maine	88%	Likely D	219	-14.1	54.0	39.9
Minnesota	87%	Lean D	229	-8.8	51.0	42.2
Colorado	87%	Likely D	238	-11.6	52.3	40.7
Nevada	80%	Lean D	244	-5.5	46.4	40.9	28.3%
Wisconsin	80%	Lean D	254	-6.6	50.2	43.6
Pennsylvania	77%	Lean D	274	-4.9	49.9	45.0	2.0%
New Hampshire	73%	Lean D	278	-6.7	49.7	43.0	4.1%
Arizona	68%	Lean D	289	-4.8	48.6	43.8	18.4%
NE-2	62%	Lean D	290	-4.2	49.9	45.7	2.3%
Florida	60%	Toss-Up	319	-2.1	48.0	45.9	32.8%
North Carolina	54%	Toss-Up	334	-1.3	47.4	46.1	40.0%
ME-2	51%	Toss-Up	204	-2.8	47.8	45.0	69.4%
Ohio	55%	Lean R	203	+1.4	46.5	47.9	37.5%
Georgia	65%	Toss-Up	185	+1.4	46.1	47.5	39.1%
Iowa	67%	Lean R	169	+1.8	45.1	46.9	38.8%
Texas	69%	Lean R	163	+1.2	46.4	47.6	40.0%
Alaska	80%	Likely R	125	+5.3	45.1	50.4
Mississippi	87%	Solid R	122	+12.2	41.2	53.4
Montana	87%	Likely R	116	+8.4	43.4	51.8
South Carolina	88%	Likely R	113	+7.0	43.9	50.9
Missouri	90%	Likely R	104	+6.4	43.7	50.1
Louisiana	92%	Solid R	94	+13.5	39.6	53.1
Kansas	93%	Likely R	86	+9.1	41.4	50.5
NE-1	94%	Solid R	80	+5.6	44.7	50.3
Arkansas	94%	Solid R	79	+2.8	45.2	48.0	29.4%
Indiana	96%	Likely R	73	+14.2	39.0	53.2
Utah	96%	Likely R	62	+11.6	36.9	48.5	10.3%
Tennessee	96%	Solid R	56	+12.1	41.0	53.1
South Dakota	97%	Solid R	45	+19.3	39.6	58.9
Alabama	98%	Solid R	42	+18.6	38.7	57.3
Kentucky	98%	Solid R	33	+16.2	39.7	55.9
Nebraska	99%	Solid R	25	+19.2	39.5	58.7
North Dakota	99%	Solid R	23	+14.7	39.2	53.9
West Virginia	99%	Solid R	20	+29.2	33.4	62.6
Oklahoma	99%	Solid R	15	+23.1	35.0	58.1
Idaho	100%	Solid R	8	+27.1	34.9	62.0
Wyoming	100%	Solid R	4	+39.4	28.6	68.0
NE-3	100%	Solid R	1	+46.4	25.6	72.0

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State Prob Seats Polls ..D/R UVN

Dem >85% 45

MN 84% 46

MI 83% 47

CO 78% 48

ME 74% 49

NC 71% 50

IA 53% 50

MT 61% 49

KS 68% 48

GA1 70% 47

SC 75% 46

AK 78% 45

GA2 83% 44

Rep >85% 43

All States:

State

538 Prob

Cook Political

Cum. Seats

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN

D-cont	100%	Solid D	35	nr	nr	nr
RI	100%	Solid D	36	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MA	100%	Solid D	37	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
DE	98%	Solid D	38	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
IL	98%	Solid D	39	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NJ	97%	Solid D	40	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
OR	97%	Solid D	41	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
VA	96%	Solid D	42	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NH	94%	Solid D	43	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NM	86%	Solid D	44	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AZ	86%	Lean D	45	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MN	84%	Solid D	46	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MI	83%	Lean D	47	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
CO	78%	Toss-Up	48	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
ME	74%	Toss-Up	49	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NC	71%	Toss-Up	50	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
IA	53%	Toss-Up	50	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MT	61%	Toss-Up	49	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
KS	68%	Lean R	48	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
GA1	70%	Toss-Up	47	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
SC	75%	Lean R	46	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AK	78%	Likely R	45	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
GA2	83%	Lean R	44	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
TX	86%	Likely R	43	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MS	86%	Solid R	42	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
TN	89%	Solid R	41	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AL	90%	Lean R	40	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
KY	93%	Likely R	39	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
LA	94%	Solid R	38	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NE	97%	Solid R	37	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
ID	97%	Solid R	36	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
SD	98%	Solid R	35	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
OK	98%	Solid R	34	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
WV	99%	Solid R	33	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
WY	99%	Solid R	32	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AR	100%	Solid R	31	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
R-cont	100%	Solid R	30	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%

House

Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.

Solid	Likely	Lean	Toss-Up	Lean	Likely	Solid
190	207	221		186	172	155
190 seats	17 seats	14 seats	28 seats	14 seats	18 seats	154 seats