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25/09: President: Biden 77% | Senate: Dem 63% | House: lean Dem

Posted on September 25, 2020September 25, 2020 by data-art

President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook).

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DemocratRepublican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
238
NV
83%
244
-6.9
48/41
18.9%
WI
81%
254
-6.5
50/44
PA
76%
274
-4.7
50/45
7.3%
NH
74%
278
-6.7
50/43
4.1%
AZ
65%
289
-3.8
49/45
21.2%
NE2
62%
290
-4.1
50/46
0.0%
FL
57%
319
-1.5
48/47
36.4%
NC
54%
334
-1.1
48/46
41.0%
OH
52%
352
-1.0
48/47
40.4%
ME2
51%
353
-3.5
49/45
20.3%
IA
63%
185
+0.8
46/47
44.7%
GA
63%
179
+1.1
46/47
42.3%
TX
72%
163
+2.0
46/48
33.9%
AK
81%
125
+5.8
45/51
Rep
>85%
122

All states:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
EV
PollsDemRepUVN
District of Columbia100%Solid D3-85.390.95.6
New York100%Solid D32-26.860.233.4
Delaware100%Solid D35-19.357.438.1
Massachusetts100%Solid D46-34.163.929.8
Maryland100%Solid D56-26.060.334.3
Illinois100%Solid D76-22.460.438.0
California100%Solid D131-31.661.930.3
Rhode Island99%Solid D135-25.562.036.5
Connecticut99%Solid D142-20.855.034.2
Washington99%Solid D154-26.259.533.3
Hawaii99%Solid D158-25.756.630.9
Vermont99%Solid D161-36.967.130.2
New Jersey98%Solid D175-19.555.936.4
ME-197%Solid D176-23.056.833.8
Virginia96%Likely D189-11.051.640.6
New Mexico95%Solid D194-13.154.241.1
Oregon93%Solid D201-16.457.040.6
Minnesota89%Lean D211-9.051.242.2
Maine88%Likely D213-13.853.840.0
Colorado88%Likely D222-9.951.141.2
Michigan86%Lean D238-6.949.742.84.0%
Nevada83%Lean D244-6.947.941.018.9%
Wisconsin81%Lean D254-6.550.343.8
Pennsylvania76%Lean D274-4.749.644.97.3%
New Hampshire74%Lean D278-6.749.743.04.1%
Arizona65%Lean D289-3.848.644.821.2%
NE-262%Lean D290-4.150.045.90.0%
Florida57%Toss-Up319-1.548.046.536.4%
North Carolina54%Toss-Up334-1.147.546.441.0%
Ohio52%Lean R352-1.047.946.940.4%
ME-251%Toss-Up353-3.548.845.320.3%
Iowa63%Lean R185+0.845.846.644.7%
Georgia63%Toss-Up179+1.145.947.042.3%
Texas72%Lean R163+2.045.947.933.9%
Alaska81%Likely R125+5.844.950.7
Mississippi87%Solid R122+12.241.253.4
Montana87%Likely R116+8.443.451.8
South Carolina87%Likely R113+6.943.950.8
Louisiana91%Solid R104+13.539.653.1
Missouri91%Likely R96+6.443.750.1
Kansas93%Likely R86+9.141.450.5
Arkansas94%Solid R80+2.845.248.029.4%
NE-195%Solid R74+5.644.750.3
Tennessee96%Solid R73+12.141.053.1
Indiana96%Likely R62+14.239.053.2
Utah96%Likely R51+11.636.948.510.3%
Alabama97%Solid R45+18.638.757.3
South Dakota97%Solid R36+19.339.658.9
Kentucky99%Solid R33+16.239.755.9
Nebraska99%Solid R25+19.239.558.7
North Dakota99%Solid R23+14.739.253.9
West Virginia99%Solid R20+29.233.462.6
Oklahoma99%Solid R15+23.135.058.1
Idaho100%Solid R8+27.134.962.0
Wyoming100%Solid R4+39.428.668.0
NE-3100%Solid R1+46.425.672.0

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State
Prob
Seats
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
46
MI
81%
47
CO
78%
48
ME
76%
49
NC
73%
50
IA
54%
51
MT
58%
49
GA1
69%
48
KS
69%
47
MS
73%
46
GA2
73%
45
SC
76%
44
AK
78%
43
TX
84%
42
Rep
>85%
41

All States:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
Seats
PollsDemRepUVN
D-cont100%Solid D35nrnrnr
RI100%Solid D36+0.00.00.050.0%
MA99%Solid D37+0.00.00.050.0%
DE98%Solid D38+0.00.00.050.0%
IL98%Solid D39+0.00.00.050.0%
NJ97%Solid D40+0.00.00.050.0%
VA96%Solid D41+0.00.00.050.0%
OR96%Solid D42+0.00.00.050.0%
NH94%Solid D43+0.00.00.050.0%
MN88%Solid D44+0.00.00.050.0%
NM87%Solid D45+0.00.00.050.0%
AZ85%Lean D46+0.00.00.050.0%
MI81%Lean D47+0.00.00.050.0%
CO78%Toss-Up48+0.00.00.050.0%
ME76%Toss-Up49+0.00.00.050.0%
NC73%Toss-Up50+0.00.00.050.0%
IA54%Toss-Up51+0.00.00.050.0%
MT58%Toss-Up49+0.00.00.050.0%
GA169%Toss-Up48+0.00.00.050.0%
KS69%Lean R47+0.00.00.050.0%
MS73%Solid R46+0.00.00.050.0%
GA273%Lean R45+0.00.00.050.0%
SC76%Lean R44+0.00.00.050.0%
AK78%Likely R43+0.00.00.050.0%
TX84%Likely R42+0.00.00.050.0%
TN88%Solid R41+0.00.00.050.0%
AL93%Lean R40+0.00.00.050.0%
LA93%Solid R39+0.00.00.050.0%
KY94%Likely R38+0.00.00.050.0%
NE96%Solid R37+0.00.00.050.0%
OK97%Solid R36+0.00.00.050.0%
SD97%Solid R35+0.00.00.050.0%
ID97%Solid R34+0.00.00.050.0%
WV98%Solid R33+0.00.00.050.0%
WY99%Solid R32+0.00.00.050.0%
AR100%Solid R31+0.00.00.050.0%
R-cont100%Solid R30+0.00.00.050.0%

House

Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.

SolidLikelyLeanToss-UpLeanLikelySolid
190207222185171154
190
seats
17
seats
15
seats
28
seats
14
seats
17
seats
154
seats

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