25/09: President: Biden 77% | Senate: Dem 63% | House: lean Dem

President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook).

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Democrat

Republican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State Prob EV Polls ..D/R UVN

Dem >85% 238

NV 83% 244 -6.9 48/41 18.9%

WI 81% 254 -6.5 50/44

PA 76% 274 -4.7 50/45 7.3%

NH 74% 278 -6.7 50/43 4.1%

AZ 65% 289 -3.8 49/45 21.2%

NE2 62% 290 -4.1 50/46 0.0%

FL 57% 319 -1.5 48/47 36.4%

NC 54% 334 -1.1 48/46 41.0%

OH 52% 352 -1.0 48/47 40.4%

ME2 51% 353 -3.5 49/45 20.3%

IA 63% 185 +0.8 46/47 44.7%

GA 63% 179 +1.1 46/47 42.3%

TX 72% 163 +2.0 46/48 33.9%

AK 81% 125 +5.8 45/51

Rep >85% 122

All states:

State

538 Prob

Cook Political

Cum. EV

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN

District of Columbia	100%	Solid D	3	-85.3	90.9	5.6
New York	100%	Solid D	32	-26.8	60.2	33.4
Delaware	100%	Solid D	35	-19.3	57.4	38.1
Massachusetts	100%	Solid D	46	-34.1	63.9	29.8
Maryland	100%	Solid D	56	-26.0	60.3	34.3
Illinois	100%	Solid D	76	-22.4	60.4	38.0
California	100%	Solid D	131	-31.6	61.9	30.3
Rhode Island	99%	Solid D	135	-25.5	62.0	36.5
Connecticut	99%	Solid D	142	-20.8	55.0	34.2
Washington	99%	Solid D	154	-26.2	59.5	33.3
Hawaii	99%	Solid D	158	-25.7	56.6	30.9
Vermont	99%	Solid D	161	-36.9	67.1	30.2
New Jersey	98%	Solid D	175	-19.5	55.9	36.4
ME-1	97%	Solid D	176	-23.0	56.8	33.8
Virginia	96%	Likely D	189	-11.0	51.6	40.6
New Mexico	95%	Solid D	194	-13.1	54.2	41.1
Oregon	93%	Solid D	201	-16.4	57.0	40.6
Minnesota	89%	Lean D	211	-9.0	51.2	42.2
Maine	88%	Likely D	213	-13.8	53.8	40.0
Colorado	88%	Likely D	222	-9.9	51.1	41.2
Michigan	86%	Lean D	238	-6.9	49.7	42.8	4.0%
Nevada	83%	Lean D	244	-6.9	47.9	41.0	18.9%
Wisconsin	81%	Lean D	254	-6.5	50.3	43.8
Pennsylvania	76%	Lean D	274	-4.7	49.6	44.9	7.3%
New Hampshire	74%	Lean D	278	-6.7	49.7	43.0	4.1%
Arizona	65%	Lean D	289	-3.8	48.6	44.8	21.2%
NE-2	62%	Lean D	290	-4.1	50.0	45.9	0.0%
Florida	57%	Toss-Up	319	-1.5	48.0	46.5	36.4%
North Carolina	54%	Toss-Up	334	-1.1	47.5	46.4	41.0%
Ohio	52%	Lean R	352	-1.0	47.9	46.9	40.4%
ME-2	51%	Toss-Up	353	-3.5	48.8	45.3	20.3%
Iowa	63%	Lean R	185	+0.8	45.8	46.6	44.7%
Georgia	63%	Toss-Up	179	+1.1	45.9	47.0	42.3%
Texas	72%	Lean R	163	+2.0	45.9	47.9	33.9%
Alaska	81%	Likely R	125	+5.8	44.9	50.7
Mississippi	87%	Solid R	122	+12.2	41.2	53.4
Montana	87%	Likely R	116	+8.4	43.4	51.8
South Carolina	87%	Likely R	113	+6.9	43.9	50.8
Louisiana	91%	Solid R	104	+13.5	39.6	53.1
Missouri	91%	Likely R	96	+6.4	43.7	50.1
Kansas	93%	Likely R	86	+9.1	41.4	50.5
Arkansas	94%	Solid R	80	+2.8	45.2	48.0	29.4%
NE-1	95%	Solid R	74	+5.6	44.7	50.3
Tennessee	96%	Solid R	73	+12.1	41.0	53.1
Indiana	96%	Likely R	62	+14.2	39.0	53.2
Utah	96%	Likely R	51	+11.6	36.9	48.5	10.3%
Alabama	97%	Solid R	45	+18.6	38.7	57.3
South Dakota	97%	Solid R	36	+19.3	39.6	58.9
Kentucky	99%	Solid R	33	+16.2	39.7	55.9
Nebraska	99%	Solid R	25	+19.2	39.5	58.7
North Dakota	99%	Solid R	23	+14.7	39.2	53.9
West Virginia	99%	Solid R	20	+29.2	33.4	62.6
Oklahoma	99%	Solid R	15	+23.1	35.0	58.1
Idaho	100%	Solid R	8	+27.1	34.9	62.0
Wyoming	100%	Solid R	4	+39.4	28.6	68.0
NE-3	100%	Solid R	1	+46.4	25.6	72.0

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State Prob Seats Polls ..D/R UVN

Dem >85% 46

MI 81% 47

CO 78% 48

ME 76% 49

NC 73% 50

IA 54% 51

MT 58% 49

GA1 69% 48

KS 69% 47

MS 73% 46

GA2 73% 45

SC 76% 44

AK 78% 43

TX 84% 42

Rep >85% 41

All States:

State

538 Prob

Cook Political

Cum. Seats

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN

D-cont	100%	Solid D	35	nr	nr	nr
RI	100%	Solid D	36	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MA	99%	Solid D	37	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
DE	98%	Solid D	38	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
IL	98%	Solid D	39	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NJ	97%	Solid D	40	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
VA	96%	Solid D	41	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
OR	96%	Solid D	42	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NH	94%	Solid D	43	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MN	88%	Solid D	44	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NM	87%	Solid D	45	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AZ	85%	Lean D	46	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MI	81%	Lean D	47	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
CO	78%	Toss-Up	48	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
ME	76%	Toss-Up	49	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NC	73%	Toss-Up	50	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
IA	54%	Toss-Up	51	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MT	58%	Toss-Up	49	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
GA1	69%	Toss-Up	48	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
KS	69%	Lean R	47	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MS	73%	Solid R	46	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
GA2	73%	Lean R	45	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
SC	76%	Lean R	44	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AK	78%	Likely R	43	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
TX	84%	Likely R	42	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
TN	88%	Solid R	41	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AL	93%	Lean R	40	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
LA	93%	Solid R	39	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
KY	94%	Likely R	38	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NE	96%	Solid R	37	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
OK	97%	Solid R	36	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
SD	97%	Solid R	35	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
ID	97%	Solid R	34	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
WV	98%	Solid R	33	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
WY	99%	Solid R	32	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AR	100%	Solid R	31	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
R-cont	100%	Solid R	30	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%

House

Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.

Solid	Likely	Lean	Toss-Up	Lean	Likely	Solid
190	207	222		185	171	154
190 seats	17 seats	15 seats	28 seats	14 seats	17 seats	154 seats