President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook).
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Democrat | Republican |
President
States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)
States in play:
State Prob EV Polls ..D/R UVN | Dem >85% 238 |
82% 244 -6.4 49/42 13.6% |
81% 254 -6.5 50/44 |
79% 274 -5.5 50/44 1.8% |
74% 278 -6.8 50/43 4.1% |
66% 279 -5.4 49/44 11.4% |
64% 290 -3.6 49/45 22.7% |
58% 319 -1.7 48/46 36.1% |
54% 334 -1.1 48/46 41.0% |
53% 335 -3.5 48/45 24.6% |
52% 353 -1.0 48/47 40.0% |
63% 185 +0.8 46/47 44.7% |
64% 179 +1.2 46/47 41.4% |
71% 163 +1.9 46/48 35.4% |
79% 125 +5.8 45/51 |
Rep >85% 122 |
All states:
State | 538 Prob | Cook Political | Cum. EV | Polls | Dem | Rep | UVN |
District of Columbia | 100% | Solid D | 3 | -85.3 | 90.9 | 5.6 | |
New York | 100% | Solid D | 32 | -26.8 | 60.2 | 33.4 | |
Delaware | 100% | Solid D | 35 | -19.3 | 57.4 | 38.1 | |
Maryland | 100% | Solid D | 45 | -26.0 | 60.3 | 34.3 | |
Massachusetts | 100% | Solid D | 56 | -34.1 | 63.9 | 29.8 | |
California | 100% | Solid D | 111 | -31.6 | 61.9 | 30.3 | |
Rhode Island | 99% | Solid D | 115 | -25.5 | 62.0 | 36.5 | |
Illinois | 99% | Solid D | 135 | -22.4 | 60.4 | 38.0 | |
Connecticut | 99% | Solid D | 142 | -20.8 | 55.0 | 34.2 | |
Washington | 99% | Solid D | 154 | -26.2 | 59.5 | 33.3 | |
Hawaii | 99% | Solid D | 158 | -25.7 | 56.6 | 30.9 | |
Vermont | 99% | Solid D | 161 | -36.9 | 67.1 | 30.2 | |
New Jersey | 98% | Solid D | 175 | -19.5 | 55.9 | 36.4 | |
ME-1 | 97% | Solid D | 176 | -23.0 | 56.8 | 33.8 | |
Virginia | 96% | Likely D | 189 | -11.0 | 51.6 | 40.6 | |
New Mexico | 95% | Solid D | 194 | -13.1 | 54.2 | 41.1 | |
Oregon | 93% | Solid D | 201 | -16.4 | 57.0 | 40.6 | |
Maine | 88% | Likely D | 203 | -15.3 | 54.3 | 39.0 | |
Minnesota | 88% | Lean D | 213 | -8.7 | 50.7 | 42.0 | |
Colorado | 88% | Likely D | 222 | -9.9 | 51.1 | 41.2 | |
Michigan | 86% | Lean D | 238 | -6.9 | 49.9 | 43.0 | 1.4% |
Nevada | 82% | Lean D | 244 | -6.4 | 48.8 | 42.4 | 13.6% |
Wisconsin | 81% | Lean D | 254 | -6.5 | 50.4 | 43.9 | |
Pennsylvania | 79% | Lean D | 274 | -5.5 | 49.9 | 44.4 | 1.8% |
New Hampshire | 74% | Lean D | 278 | -6.8 | 49.7 | 42.9 | 4.1% |
NE-2 | 66% | Lean D | 279 | -5.4 | 49.2 | 43.8 | 11.4% |
Arizona | 64% | Lean D | 290 | -3.6 | 48.5 | 44.9 | 22.7% |
Florida | 58% | Toss-Up | 319 | -1.7 | 47.8 | 46.1 | 36.1% |
North Carolina | 54% | Toss-Up | 334 | -1.1 | 47.5 | 46.4 | 41.0% |
ME-2 | 53% | Toss-Up | 335 | -3.5 | 48.3 | 44.8 | 24.6% |
Ohio | 52% | Lean R | 353 | -1.0 | 48.0 | 47.0 | 40.0% |
Iowa | 63% | Lean R | 185 | +0.8 | 45.8 | 46.6 | 44.7% |
Georgia | 64% | Toss-Up | 179 | +1.2 | 45.9 | 47.1 | 41.4% |
Texas | 71% | Lean R | 163 | +1.9 | 45.8 | 47.7 | 35.4% |
Alaska | 79% | Likely R | 125 | +5.8 | 44.9 | 50.7 | |
Mississippi | 87% | Solid R | 122 | +12.2 | 41.2 | 53.4 | |
Montana | 87% | Likely R | 116 | +8.4 | 43.4 | 51.8 | |
South Carolina | 89% | Likely R | 113 | +6.9 | 43.9 | 50.8 | |
Louisiana | 91% | Solid R | 104 | +13.5 | 39.6 | 53.1 | |
Missouri | 91% | Likely R | 96 | +6.4 | 43.7 | 50.1 | |
Kansas | 94% | Likely R | 86 | +9.1 | 41.4 | 50.5 | |
Arkansas | 94% | Solid R | 80 | +2.8 | 45.2 | 48.0 | 29.4% |
NE-1 | 95% | Solid R | 74 | +5.6 | 44.7 | 50.3 | |
Tennessee | 96% | Solid R | 73 | +12.1 | 41.0 | 53.1 | |
Indiana | 97% | Likely R | 62 | +14.2 | 39.0 | 53.2 | |
Utah | 97% | Likely R | 51 | +11.6 | 36.9 | 48.5 | 10.3% |
Alabama | 97% | Solid R | 45 | +18.6 | 38.7 | 57.3 | |
South Dakota | 97% | Solid R | 36 | +19.3 | 39.6 | 58.9 | |
Kentucky | 99% | Solid R | 33 | +16.2 | 39.7 | 55.9 | |
Nebraska | 99% | Solid R | 25 | +19.2 | 39.5 | 58.7 | |
North Dakota | 99% | Solid R | 23 | +14.7 | 39.2 | 53.9 | |
West Virginia | 99% | Solid R | 20 | +29.2 | 33.4 | 62.6 | |
Oklahoma | 99% | Solid R | 15 | +23.1 | 35.0 | 58.1 | |
Idaho | 100% | Solid R | 8 | +27.1 | 34.9 | 62.0 | |
Wyoming | 100% | Solid R | 4 | +39.4 | 28.6 | 68.0 | |
NE-3 | 100% | Solid R | 1 | +46.4 | 25.6 | 72.0 |
Senate
Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)
States in Play:
State Prob Seats Polls ..D/R UVN | Dem >85% 45 |
84% 46 |
80% 47 |
77% 48 |
74% 49 |
73% 50 |
53% 51 |
59% 49 |
70% 48 |
72% 47 |
72% 46 |
72% 45 |
74% 44 |
74% 43 |
83% 42 |
Rep >85% 41 |
All States:
State | 538 Prob | Cook Political | Cum. Seats | Polls | Dem | Rep | UVN |
D-cont | 100% | Solid D | 35 | nr | nr | nr | |
RI | 99% | Solid D | 36 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
MA | 99% | Solid D | 37 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
DE | 98% | Solid D | 38 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
IL | 98% | Solid D | 39 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
VA | 97% | Solid D | 40 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
NJ | 96% | Solid D | 41 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
OR | 96% | Solid D | 42 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
NH | 92% | Solid D | 43 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
MN | 89% | Solid D | 44 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
NM | 87% | Solid D | 45 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
AZ | 84% | Lean D | 46 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
MI | 80% | Lean D | 47 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
CO | 77% | Toss-Up | 48 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
ME | 74% | Toss-Up | 49 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
NC | 73% | Toss-Up | 50 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
IA | 53% | Toss-Up | 51 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
MT | 59% | Toss-Up | 49 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
KS | 70% | Lean R | 48 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
SC | 72% | Lean R | 47 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
GA1 | 72% | Toss-Up | 46 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
AK | 72% | Likely R | 45 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
GA2 | 74% | Lean R | 44 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
MS | 74% | Solid R | 43 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
TX | 83% | Likely R | 42 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
TN | 88% | Solid R | 41 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
LA | 93% | Solid R | 40 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
AL | 94% | Lean R | 39 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
KY | 95% | Likely R | 38 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
NE | 96% | Solid R | 37 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
SD | 97% | Solid R | 36 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
OK | 97% | Solid R | 35 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
ID | 97% | Solid R | 34 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
WV | 98% | Solid R | 33 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
WY | 98% | Solid R | 32 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
AR | 100% | Solid R | 31 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
R-cont | 100% | Solid R | 30 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
House
Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.
Solid | Likely | Lean | Toss-Up | Lean | Likely | Solid |
190 | 207 | 222 | 185 | 171 | 154 | |
190 seats | 17 seats | 15 seats | 28 seats | 14 seats | 17 seats | 154 seats |