29/09: President: Biden 78% | Senate: Dem 61% | House: lean Dem

President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook).

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Democrat

Republican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State Prob EV Polls ..D/R UVN

Dem >85% 238

NV 82% 244 -6.4 49/42 13.6%

WI 81% 254 -6.5 50/44

PA 79% 274 -5.5 50/44 1.8%

NH 74% 278 -6.8 50/43 4.1%

NE2 66% 279 -5.4 49/44 11.4%

AZ 64% 290 -3.6 49/45 22.7%

FL 58% 319 -1.7 48/46 36.1%

NC 54% 334 -1.1 48/46 41.0%

ME2 53% 335 -3.5 48/45 24.6%

OH 52% 353 -1.0 48/47 40.0%

IA 63% 185 +0.8 46/47 44.7%

GA 64% 179 +1.2 46/47 41.4%

TX 71% 163 +1.9 46/48 35.4%

AK 79% 125 +5.8 45/51

Rep >85% 122

All states:

State

538 Prob

Cook Political

Cum. EV

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN

District of Columbia	100%	Solid D	3	-85.3	90.9	5.6
New York	100%	Solid D	32	-26.8	60.2	33.4
Delaware	100%	Solid D	35	-19.3	57.4	38.1
Maryland	100%	Solid D	45	-26.0	60.3	34.3
Massachusetts	100%	Solid D	56	-34.1	63.9	29.8
California	100%	Solid D	111	-31.6	61.9	30.3
Rhode Island	99%	Solid D	115	-25.5	62.0	36.5
Illinois	99%	Solid D	135	-22.4	60.4	38.0
Connecticut	99%	Solid D	142	-20.8	55.0	34.2
Washington	99%	Solid D	154	-26.2	59.5	33.3
Hawaii	99%	Solid D	158	-25.7	56.6	30.9
Vermont	99%	Solid D	161	-36.9	67.1	30.2
New Jersey	98%	Solid D	175	-19.5	55.9	36.4
ME-1	97%	Solid D	176	-23.0	56.8	33.8
Virginia	96%	Likely D	189	-11.0	51.6	40.6
New Mexico	95%	Solid D	194	-13.1	54.2	41.1
Oregon	93%	Solid D	201	-16.4	57.0	40.6
Maine	88%	Likely D	203	-15.3	54.3	39.0
Minnesota	88%	Lean D	213	-8.7	50.7	42.0
Colorado	88%	Likely D	222	-9.9	51.1	41.2
Michigan	86%	Lean D	238	-6.9	49.9	43.0	1.4%
Nevada	82%	Lean D	244	-6.4	48.8	42.4	13.6%
Wisconsin	81%	Lean D	254	-6.5	50.4	43.9
Pennsylvania	79%	Lean D	274	-5.5	49.9	44.4	1.8%
New Hampshire	74%	Lean D	278	-6.8	49.7	42.9	4.1%
NE-2	66%	Lean D	279	-5.4	49.2	43.8	11.4%
Arizona	64%	Lean D	290	-3.6	48.5	44.9	22.7%
Florida	58%	Toss-Up	319	-1.7	47.8	46.1	36.1%
North Carolina	54%	Toss-Up	334	-1.1	47.5	46.4	41.0%
ME-2	53%	Toss-Up	335	-3.5	48.3	44.8	24.6%
Ohio	52%	Lean R	353	-1.0	48.0	47.0	40.0%
Iowa	63%	Lean R	185	+0.8	45.8	46.6	44.7%
Georgia	64%	Toss-Up	179	+1.2	45.9	47.1	41.4%
Texas	71%	Lean R	163	+1.9	45.8	47.7	35.4%
Alaska	79%	Likely R	125	+5.8	44.9	50.7
Mississippi	87%	Solid R	122	+12.2	41.2	53.4
Montana	87%	Likely R	116	+8.4	43.4	51.8
South Carolina	89%	Likely R	113	+6.9	43.9	50.8
Louisiana	91%	Solid R	104	+13.5	39.6	53.1
Missouri	91%	Likely R	96	+6.4	43.7	50.1
Kansas	94%	Likely R	86	+9.1	41.4	50.5
Arkansas	94%	Solid R	80	+2.8	45.2	48.0	29.4%
NE-1	95%	Solid R	74	+5.6	44.7	50.3
Tennessee	96%	Solid R	73	+12.1	41.0	53.1
Indiana	97%	Likely R	62	+14.2	39.0	53.2
Utah	97%	Likely R	51	+11.6	36.9	48.5	10.3%
Alabama	97%	Solid R	45	+18.6	38.7	57.3
South Dakota	97%	Solid R	36	+19.3	39.6	58.9
Kentucky	99%	Solid R	33	+16.2	39.7	55.9
Nebraska	99%	Solid R	25	+19.2	39.5	58.7
North Dakota	99%	Solid R	23	+14.7	39.2	53.9
West Virginia	99%	Solid R	20	+29.2	33.4	62.6
Oklahoma	99%	Solid R	15	+23.1	35.0	58.1
Idaho	100%	Solid R	8	+27.1	34.9	62.0
Wyoming	100%	Solid R	4	+39.4	28.6	68.0
NE-3	100%	Solid R	1	+46.4	25.6	72.0

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State Prob Seats Polls ..D/R UVN

Dem >85% 45

AZ 84% 46

MI 80% 47

CO 77% 48

ME 74% 49

NC 73% 50

IA 53% 51

MT 59% 49

KS 70% 48

SC 72% 47

GA1 72% 46

AK 72% 45

GA2 74% 44

MS 74% 43

TX 83% 42

Rep >85% 41

All States:

State

538 Prob

Cook Political

Cum. Seats

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN

D-cont	100%	Solid D	35	nr	nr	nr
RI	99%	Solid D	36	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MA	99%	Solid D	37	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
DE	98%	Solid D	38	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
IL	98%	Solid D	39	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
VA	97%	Solid D	40	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NJ	96%	Solid D	41	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
OR	96%	Solid D	42	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NH	92%	Solid D	43	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MN	89%	Solid D	44	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NM	87%	Solid D	45	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AZ	84%	Lean D	46	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MI	80%	Lean D	47	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
CO	77%	Toss-Up	48	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
ME	74%	Toss-Up	49	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NC	73%	Toss-Up	50	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
IA	53%	Toss-Up	51	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MT	59%	Toss-Up	49	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
KS	70%	Lean R	48	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
SC	72%	Lean R	47	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
GA1	72%	Toss-Up	46	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AK	72%	Likely R	45	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
GA2	74%	Lean R	44	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MS	74%	Solid R	43	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
TX	83%	Likely R	42	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
TN	88%	Solid R	41	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
LA	93%	Solid R	40	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AL	94%	Lean R	39	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
KY	95%	Likely R	38	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NE	96%	Solid R	37	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
SD	97%	Solid R	36	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
OK	97%	Solid R	35	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
ID	97%	Solid R	34	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
WV	98%	Solid R	33	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
WY	98%	Solid R	32	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AR	100%	Solid R	31	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
R-cont	100%	Solid R	30	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%

House

Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.

Solid	Likely	Lean	Toss-Up	Lean	Likely	Solid
190	207	222		185	171	154
190 seats	17 seats	15 seats	28 seats	14 seats	17 seats	154 seats