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29/09: President: Biden 78% | Senate: Dem 61% | House: lean Dem

Posted on September 29, 2020September 29, 2020 by data-art

President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook).

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DemocratRepublican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
238
NV
82%
244
-6.4
49/42
13.6%
WI
81%
254
-6.5
50/44
PA
79%
274
-5.5
50/44
1.8%
NH
74%
278
-6.8
50/43
4.1%
NE2
66%
279
-5.4
49/44
11.4%
AZ
64%
290
-3.6
49/45
22.7%
FL
58%
319
-1.7
48/46
36.1%
NC
54%
334
-1.1
48/46
41.0%
ME2
53%
335
-3.5
48/45
24.6%
OH
52%
353
-1.0
48/47
40.0%
IA
63%
185
+0.8
46/47
44.7%
GA
64%
179
+1.2
46/47
41.4%
TX
71%
163
+1.9
46/48
35.4%
AK
79%
125
+5.8
45/51
Rep
>85%
122

All states:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
EV
PollsDemRepUVN
District of Columbia100%Solid D3-85.390.95.6
New York100%Solid D32-26.860.233.4
Delaware100%Solid D35-19.357.438.1
Maryland100%Solid D45-26.060.334.3
Massachusetts100%Solid D56-34.163.929.8
California100%Solid D111-31.661.930.3
Rhode Island99%Solid D115-25.562.036.5
Illinois99%Solid D135-22.460.438.0
Connecticut99%Solid D142-20.855.034.2
Washington99%Solid D154-26.259.533.3
Hawaii99%Solid D158-25.756.630.9
Vermont99%Solid D161-36.967.130.2
New Jersey98%Solid D175-19.555.936.4
ME-197%Solid D176-23.056.833.8
Virginia96%Likely D189-11.051.640.6
New Mexico95%Solid D194-13.154.241.1
Oregon93%Solid D201-16.457.040.6
Maine88%Likely D203-15.354.339.0
Minnesota88%Lean D213-8.750.742.0
Colorado88%Likely D222-9.951.141.2
Michigan86%Lean D238-6.949.943.01.4%
Nevada82%Lean D244-6.448.842.413.6%
Wisconsin81%Lean D254-6.550.443.9
Pennsylvania79%Lean D274-5.549.944.41.8%
New Hampshire74%Lean D278-6.849.742.94.1%
NE-266%Lean D279-5.449.243.811.4%
Arizona64%Lean D290-3.648.544.922.7%
Florida58%Toss-Up319-1.747.846.136.1%
North Carolina54%Toss-Up334-1.147.546.441.0%
ME-253%Toss-Up335-3.548.344.824.6%
Ohio52%Lean R353-1.048.047.040.0%
Iowa63%Lean R185+0.845.846.644.7%
Georgia64%Toss-Up179+1.245.947.141.4%
Texas71%Lean R163+1.945.847.735.4%
Alaska79%Likely R125+5.844.950.7
Mississippi87%Solid R122+12.241.253.4
Montana87%Likely R116+8.443.451.8
South Carolina89%Likely R113+6.943.950.8
Louisiana91%Solid R104+13.539.653.1
Missouri91%Likely R96+6.443.750.1
Kansas94%Likely R86+9.141.450.5
Arkansas94%Solid R80+2.845.248.029.4%
NE-195%Solid R74+5.644.750.3
Tennessee96%Solid R73+12.141.053.1
Indiana97%Likely R62+14.239.053.2
Utah97%Likely R51+11.636.948.510.3%
Alabama97%Solid R45+18.638.757.3
South Dakota97%Solid R36+19.339.658.9
Kentucky99%Solid R33+16.239.755.9
Nebraska99%Solid R25+19.239.558.7
North Dakota99%Solid R23+14.739.253.9
West Virginia99%Solid R20+29.233.462.6
Oklahoma99%Solid R15+23.135.058.1
Idaho100%Solid R8+27.134.962.0
Wyoming100%Solid R4+39.428.668.0
NE-3100%Solid R1+46.425.672.0

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State
Prob
Seats
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
45
AZ
84%
46
MI
80%
47
CO
77%
48
ME
74%
49
NC
73%
50
IA
53%
51
MT
59%
49
KS
70%
48
SC
72%
47
GA1
72%
46
AK
72%
45
GA2
74%
44
MS
74%
43
TX
83%
42
Rep
>85%
41

All States:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
Seats
PollsDemRepUVN
D-cont100%Solid D35nrnrnr
RI99%Solid D36+0.00.00.050.0%
MA99%Solid D37+0.00.00.050.0%
DE98%Solid D38+0.00.00.050.0%
IL98%Solid D39+0.00.00.050.0%
VA97%Solid D40+0.00.00.050.0%
NJ96%Solid D41+0.00.00.050.0%
OR96%Solid D42+0.00.00.050.0%
NH92%Solid D43+0.00.00.050.0%
MN89%Solid D44+0.00.00.050.0%
NM87%Solid D45+0.00.00.050.0%
AZ84%Lean D46+0.00.00.050.0%
MI80%Lean D47+0.00.00.050.0%
CO77%Toss-Up48+0.00.00.050.0%
ME74%Toss-Up49+0.00.00.050.0%
NC73%Toss-Up50+0.00.00.050.0%
IA53%Toss-Up51+0.00.00.050.0%
MT59%Toss-Up49+0.00.00.050.0%
KS70%Lean R48+0.00.00.050.0%
SC72%Lean R47+0.00.00.050.0%
GA172%Toss-Up46+0.00.00.050.0%
AK72%Likely R45+0.00.00.050.0%
GA274%Lean R44+0.00.00.050.0%
MS74%Solid R43+0.00.00.050.0%
TX83%Likely R42+0.00.00.050.0%
TN88%Solid R41+0.00.00.050.0%
LA93%Solid R40+0.00.00.050.0%
AL94%Lean R39+0.00.00.050.0%
KY95%Likely R38+0.00.00.050.0%
NE96%Solid R37+0.00.00.050.0%
SD97%Solid R36+0.00.00.050.0%
OK97%Solid R35+0.00.00.050.0%
ID97%Solid R34+0.00.00.050.0%
WV98%Solid R33+0.00.00.050.0%
WY98%Solid R32+0.00.00.050.0%
AR100%Solid R31+0.00.00.050.0%
R-cont100%Solid R30+0.00.00.050.0%

House

Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.

SolidLikelyLeanToss-UpLeanLikelySolid
190207222185171154
190
seats
17
seats
15
seats
28
seats
14
seats
17
seats
154
seats

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