Data Art by dmuller

Numbers and data made meaningful

Menu
  • Tour de France 2020
  • US Elections 2020
  • About
Menu

02/10: President: Biden 80% | Senate: Dem 64% | House: lean Dem

Posted on October 3, 2020October 3, 2020 by data-art

President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook).

Back to the US Election 2020 landing page

DemocratRepublican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
238
NV
84%
244
-6.9
49/42
10.3%
WI
83%
254
-7.1
51/44
PA
81%
274
-5.8
50/44
NH
79%
278
-9.2
53/44
NE2
68%
279
-6.0
50/44
7.1%
AZ
63%
290
-3.8
49/45
18.3%
FL
60%
319
-2.3
48/46
30.5%
NC
54%
334
-1.2
48/47
39.7%
OH
54%
352
-1.4
48/47
36.0%
ME2
53%
353
-3.7
48/45
23.2%
GA
57%
185
-0.5
47/47
54.0%
IA
62%
169
+0.4
46/47
47.2%
TX
70%
163
+1.6
46/48
37.1%
AK
78%
125
+4.0
46/50
10.0%
Rep
>85%
122

All states:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
EV
PollsDemRepUVN
District of Columbia100%Solid D3-85.390.95.6
New York100%Solid D32-28.460.632.2
Delaware100%Solid D35-20.157.837.7
Maryland100%Solid D45-28.961.332.4
Massachusetts100%Solid D56-34.964.329.4
California100%Solid D111-30.661.631.0
Illinois99%Solid D131-13.353.039.7
Rhode Island99%Solid D135-25.562.136.6
Connecticut99%Solid D142-21.655.533.9
Washington99%Solid D154-25.159.534.4
Hawaii99%Solid D158-26.357.230.9
Vermont99%Solid D161-23.655.932.3
New Jersey98%Solid D175-19.955.936.0
ME-197%Solid D176-24.558.333.8
Virginia97%Likely D189-10.651.440.8
New Mexico96%Solid D194-13.454.541.1
Oregon94%Solid D201-15.354.138.8
Minnesota89%Lean D211-9.251.041.8
Colorado89%Likely D220-10.751.540.8
Maine89%Likely D222-14.954.139.2
Michigan87%Lean D238-7.250.243.0
Nevada84%Lean D244-6.949.142.210.3%
Wisconsin83%Lean D254-7.150.743.6
Pennsylvania81%Lean D274-5.850.144.3
New Hampshire79%Lean D278-9.252.743.5
NE-268%Lean D279-6.049.543.57.1%
Arizona63%Lean D290-3.848.945.118.3%
Florida60%Toss-Up319-2.348.245.930.5%
North Carolina54%Toss-Up334-1.247.746.539.7%
Ohio54%Toss-Up352-1.448.246.836.0%
ME-253%Toss-Up353-3.748.444.723.2%
Georgia57%Toss-Up185-0.547.146.654.0%
Iowa62%Toss-Up169+0.446.246.647.2%
Texas70%Lean R163+1.646.147.737.1%
Alaska78%Likely R125+4.045.549.510.0%
Mississippi86%Solid R122+11.341.052.3
South Carolina86%Likely R116+5.744.450.1
Montana87%Likely R107+7.743.150.8
Louisiana90%Solid R104+10.240.750.9
Missouri90%Likely R96+6.344.250.5
Arkansas94%Solid R86+2.645.448.030.3%
Kansas94%Likely R80+8.641.950.5
NE-195%Solid R74+5.245.050.2
Tennessee96%Solid R73+11.941.153.0
Indiana96%Likely R62+14.039.253.2
Utah96%Likely R51+11.937.349.25.9%
Alabama97%Solid R45+14.640.354.9
South Dakota97%Solid R36+19.239.758.9
Kentucky99%Solid R33+18.538.456.9
Nebraska99%Solid R25+19.039.658.6
North Dakota99%Solid R23+16.838.255.0
West Virginia99%Solid R20+28.833.962.7
Oklahoma99%Solid R15+23.134.757.8
Idaho100%Solid R8+24.434.959.3
Wyoming100%Solid R4+39.228.868.0
NE-3100%Solid R1+46.225.872.0

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State
Prob
Seats
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
45
AZ
84%
46
MI
81%
47
CO
77%
48
NC
75%
49
ME
74%
50
IA
58%
51
MT
59%
49
GA2
63%
48
GA1
68%
47
KS
69%
46
AK
72%
45
SC
74%
44
MS
74%
43
Rep
>85%
42

All States:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
Seats
PollsDemRepUVN
D-cont100%Solid D35nrnrnr
MA99%Solid D36+0.00.00.050.0%
RI99%Solid D37+0.00.00.050.0%
DE98%Solid D38+0.00.00.050.0%
IL98%Solid D39+0.00.00.050.0%
VA97%Solid D40+0.00.00.050.0%
NJ97%Solid D41+0.00.00.050.0%
NH96%Solid D42+0.00.00.050.0%
OR95%Solid D43+0.00.00.050.0%
MN89%Solid D44+0.00.00.050.0%
NM86%Solid D45+0.00.00.050.0%
AZ84%Lean D46+0.00.00.050.0%
MI81%Lean D47+0.00.00.050.0%
CO77%Toss-Up48+0.00.00.050.0%
NC75%Toss-Up49+0.00.00.050.0%
ME74%Toss-Up50+0.00.00.050.0%
IA58%Toss-Up51+0.00.00.050.0%
MT59%Toss-Up49+0.00.00.050.0%
GA263%Lean R48+0.00.00.050.0%
GA168%Toss-Up47+0.00.00.050.0%
KS69%Lean R46+0.00.00.050.0%
AK72%Likely R45+0.00.00.050.0%
SC74%Lean R44+0.00.00.050.0%
MS74%Solid R43+0.00.00.050.0%
TX85%Likely R42+0.00.00.050.0%
TN88%Solid R41+0.00.00.050.0%
LA93%Solid R40+0.00.00.050.0%
AL94%Lean R39+0.00.00.050.0%
KY95%Likely R38+0.00.00.050.0%
NE96%Solid R37+0.00.00.050.0%
SD97%Solid R36+0.00.00.050.0%
OK97%Solid R35+0.00.00.050.0%
ID97%Solid R34+0.00.00.050.0%
WV98%Solid R33+0.00.00.050.0%
WY99%Solid R32+0.00.00.050.0%
AR100%Solid R31+0.00.00.050.0%
R-cont100%Solid R30+0.00.00.050.0%

House

Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.

SolidLikelyLeanToss-UpLeanLikelySolid
190207224185170154
190
seats
17
seats
17
seats
26
seats
15
seats
16
seats
154
seats

Recent Posts

  • Grimsel Tunnel (proposed)
  • With results: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%
  • Final: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%
  • 30/10: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 77% | House: Dem 98%
  • 27/10: President: Biden 88% | Senate: Dem 74% | House: Dem 96%

Archives

  • March 2021
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • January 2020
  • March 2012
  • March 2000
  • January 2000
  • November 1982
  • July 1973
  • January 200
©2021 Data Art by dmuller | Design: Newspaperly WordPress Theme