02/10: President: Biden 80% | Senate: Dem 64% | House: lean Dem

President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook).

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Democrat

Republican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State Prob EV Polls ..D/R UVN

Dem >85% 238

NV 84% 244 -6.9 49/42 10.3%

WI 83% 254 -7.1 51/44

PA 81% 274 -5.8 50/44

NH 79% 278 -9.2 53/44

NE2 68% 279 -6.0 50/44 7.1%

AZ 63% 290 -3.8 49/45 18.3%

FL 60% 319 -2.3 48/46 30.5%

NC 54% 334 -1.2 48/47 39.7%

OH 54% 352 -1.4 48/47 36.0%

ME2 53% 353 -3.7 48/45 23.2%

GA 57% 185 -0.5 47/47 54.0%

IA 62% 169 +0.4 46/47 47.2%

TX 70% 163 +1.6 46/48 37.1%

AK 78% 125 +4.0 46/50 10.0%

Rep >85% 122

All states:

State

538 Prob

Cook Political

Cum. EV

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN

District of Columbia	100%	Solid D	3	-85.3	90.9	5.6
New York	100%	Solid D	32	-28.4	60.6	32.2
Delaware	100%	Solid D	35	-20.1	57.8	37.7
Maryland	100%	Solid D	45	-28.9	61.3	32.4
Massachusetts	100%	Solid D	56	-34.9	64.3	29.4
California	100%	Solid D	111	-30.6	61.6	31.0
Illinois	99%	Solid D	131	-13.3	53.0	39.7
Rhode Island	99%	Solid D	135	-25.5	62.1	36.6
Connecticut	99%	Solid D	142	-21.6	55.5	33.9
Washington	99%	Solid D	154	-25.1	59.5	34.4
Hawaii	99%	Solid D	158	-26.3	57.2	30.9
Vermont	99%	Solid D	161	-23.6	55.9	32.3
New Jersey	98%	Solid D	175	-19.9	55.9	36.0
ME-1	97%	Solid D	176	-24.5	58.3	33.8
Virginia	97%	Likely D	189	-10.6	51.4	40.8
New Mexico	96%	Solid D	194	-13.4	54.5	41.1
Oregon	94%	Solid D	201	-15.3	54.1	38.8
Minnesota	89%	Lean D	211	-9.2	51.0	41.8
Colorado	89%	Likely D	220	-10.7	51.5	40.8
Maine	89%	Likely D	222	-14.9	54.1	39.2
Michigan	87%	Lean D	238	-7.2	50.2	43.0
Nevada	84%	Lean D	244	-6.9	49.1	42.2	10.3%
Wisconsin	83%	Lean D	254	-7.1	50.7	43.6
Pennsylvania	81%	Lean D	274	-5.8	50.1	44.3
New Hampshire	79%	Lean D	278	-9.2	52.7	43.5
NE-2	68%	Lean D	279	-6.0	49.5	43.5	7.1%
Arizona	63%	Lean D	290	-3.8	48.9	45.1	18.3%
Florida	60%	Toss-Up	319	-2.3	48.2	45.9	30.5%
North Carolina	54%	Toss-Up	334	-1.2	47.7	46.5	39.7%
Ohio	54%	Toss-Up	352	-1.4	48.2	46.8	36.0%
ME-2	53%	Toss-Up	353	-3.7	48.4	44.7	23.2%
Georgia	57%	Toss-Up	185	-0.5	47.1	46.6	54.0%
Iowa	62%	Toss-Up	169	+0.4	46.2	46.6	47.2%
Texas	70%	Lean R	163	+1.6	46.1	47.7	37.1%
Alaska	78%	Likely R	125	+4.0	45.5	49.5	10.0%
Mississippi	86%	Solid R	122	+11.3	41.0	52.3
South Carolina	86%	Likely R	116	+5.7	44.4	50.1
Montana	87%	Likely R	107	+7.7	43.1	50.8
Louisiana	90%	Solid R	104	+10.2	40.7	50.9
Missouri	90%	Likely R	96	+6.3	44.2	50.5
Arkansas	94%	Solid R	86	+2.6	45.4	48.0	30.3%
Kansas	94%	Likely R	80	+8.6	41.9	50.5
NE-1	95%	Solid R	74	+5.2	45.0	50.2
Tennessee	96%	Solid R	73	+11.9	41.1	53.0
Indiana	96%	Likely R	62	+14.0	39.2	53.2
Utah	96%	Likely R	51	+11.9	37.3	49.2	5.9%
Alabama	97%	Solid R	45	+14.6	40.3	54.9
South Dakota	97%	Solid R	36	+19.2	39.7	58.9
Kentucky	99%	Solid R	33	+18.5	38.4	56.9
Nebraska	99%	Solid R	25	+19.0	39.6	58.6
North Dakota	99%	Solid R	23	+16.8	38.2	55.0
West Virginia	99%	Solid R	20	+28.8	33.9	62.7
Oklahoma	99%	Solid R	15	+23.1	34.7	57.8
Idaho	100%	Solid R	8	+24.4	34.9	59.3
Wyoming	100%	Solid R	4	+39.2	28.8	68.0
NE-3	100%	Solid R	1	+46.2	25.8	72.0

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State Prob Seats Polls ..D/R UVN

Dem >85% 45

AZ 84% 46

MI 81% 47

CO 77% 48

NC 75% 49

ME 74% 50

IA 58% 51

MT 59% 49

GA2 63% 48

GA1 68% 47

KS 69% 46

AK 72% 45

SC 74% 44

MS 74% 43

Rep >85% 42

All States:

State

538 Prob

Cook Political

Cum. Seats

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN

D-cont	100%	Solid D	35	nr	nr	nr
MA	99%	Solid D	36	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
RI	99%	Solid D	37	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
DE	98%	Solid D	38	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
IL	98%	Solid D	39	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
VA	97%	Solid D	40	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NJ	97%	Solid D	41	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NH	96%	Solid D	42	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
OR	95%	Solid D	43	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MN	89%	Solid D	44	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NM	86%	Solid D	45	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AZ	84%	Lean D	46	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MI	81%	Lean D	47	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
CO	77%	Toss-Up	48	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NC	75%	Toss-Up	49	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
ME	74%	Toss-Up	50	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
IA	58%	Toss-Up	51	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MT	59%	Toss-Up	49	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
GA2	63%	Lean R	48	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
GA1	68%	Toss-Up	47	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
KS	69%	Lean R	46	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AK	72%	Likely R	45	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
SC	74%	Lean R	44	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
MS	74%	Solid R	43	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
TX	85%	Likely R	42	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
TN	88%	Solid R	41	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
LA	93%	Solid R	40	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AL	94%	Lean R	39	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
KY	95%	Likely R	38	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
NE	96%	Solid R	37	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
SD	97%	Solid R	36	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
OK	97%	Solid R	35	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
ID	97%	Solid R	34	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
WV	98%	Solid R	33	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
WY	99%	Solid R	32	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
AR	100%	Solid R	31	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%
R-cont	100%	Solid R	30	+0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%

House

Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.

Solid	Likely	Lean	Toss-Up	Lean	Likely	Solid
190	207	224		185	170	154
190 seats	17 seats	17 seats	26 seats	15 seats	16 seats	154 seats