President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook).
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Democrat | Republican |
President
States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)
States in play:
State Prob EV Polls ..D/R UVN | Dem >85% 238 |
84% 244 -6.9 49/42 10.3% |
83% 254 -7.1 51/44 |
81% 274 -5.8 50/44 |
79% 278 -9.2 53/44 |
68% 279 -6.0 50/44 7.1% |
63% 290 -3.8 49/45 18.3% |
60% 319 -2.3 48/46 30.5% |
54% 334 -1.2 48/47 39.7% |
54% 352 -1.4 48/47 36.0% |
53% 353 -3.7 48/45 23.2% |
57% 185 -0.5 47/47 54.0% |
62% 169 +0.4 46/47 47.2% |
70% 163 +1.6 46/48 37.1% |
78% 125 +4.0 46/50 10.0% |
Rep >85% 122 |
All states:
State | 538 Prob | Cook Political | Cum. EV | Polls | Dem | Rep | UVN |
District of Columbia | 100% | Solid D | 3 | -85.3 | 90.9 | 5.6 | |
New York | 100% | Solid D | 32 | -28.4 | 60.6 | 32.2 | |
Delaware | 100% | Solid D | 35 | -20.1 | 57.8 | 37.7 | |
Maryland | 100% | Solid D | 45 | -28.9 | 61.3 | 32.4 | |
Massachusetts | 100% | Solid D | 56 | -34.9 | 64.3 | 29.4 | |
California | 100% | Solid D | 111 | -30.6 | 61.6 | 31.0 | |
Illinois | 99% | Solid D | 131 | -13.3 | 53.0 | 39.7 | |
Rhode Island | 99% | Solid D | 135 | -25.5 | 62.1 | 36.6 | |
Connecticut | 99% | Solid D | 142 | -21.6 | 55.5 | 33.9 | |
Washington | 99% | Solid D | 154 | -25.1 | 59.5 | 34.4 | |
Hawaii | 99% | Solid D | 158 | -26.3 | 57.2 | 30.9 | |
Vermont | 99% | Solid D | 161 | -23.6 | 55.9 | 32.3 | |
New Jersey | 98% | Solid D | 175 | -19.9 | 55.9 | 36.0 | |
ME-1 | 97% | Solid D | 176 | -24.5 | 58.3 | 33.8 | |
Virginia | 97% | Likely D | 189 | -10.6 | 51.4 | 40.8 | |
New Mexico | 96% | Solid D | 194 | -13.4 | 54.5 | 41.1 | |
Oregon | 94% | Solid D | 201 | -15.3 | 54.1 | 38.8 | |
Minnesota | 89% | Lean D | 211 | -9.2 | 51.0 | 41.8 | |
Colorado | 89% | Likely D | 220 | -10.7 | 51.5 | 40.8 | |
Maine | 89% | Likely D | 222 | -14.9 | 54.1 | 39.2 | |
Michigan | 87% | Lean D | 238 | -7.2 | 50.2 | 43.0 | |
Nevada | 84% | Lean D | 244 | -6.9 | 49.1 | 42.2 | 10.3% |
Wisconsin | 83% | Lean D | 254 | -7.1 | 50.7 | 43.6 | |
Pennsylvania | 81% | Lean D | 274 | -5.8 | 50.1 | 44.3 | |
New Hampshire | 79% | Lean D | 278 | -9.2 | 52.7 | 43.5 | |
NE-2 | 68% | Lean D | 279 | -6.0 | 49.5 | 43.5 | 7.1% |
Arizona | 63% | Lean D | 290 | -3.8 | 48.9 | 45.1 | 18.3% |
Florida | 60% | Toss-Up | 319 | -2.3 | 48.2 | 45.9 | 30.5% |
North Carolina | 54% | Toss-Up | 334 | -1.2 | 47.7 | 46.5 | 39.7% |
Ohio | 54% | Toss-Up | 352 | -1.4 | 48.2 | 46.8 | 36.0% |
ME-2 | 53% | Toss-Up | 353 | -3.7 | 48.4 | 44.7 | 23.2% |
Georgia | 57% | Toss-Up | 185 | -0.5 | 47.1 | 46.6 | 54.0% |
Iowa | 62% | Toss-Up | 169 | +0.4 | 46.2 | 46.6 | 47.2% |
Texas | 70% | Lean R | 163 | +1.6 | 46.1 | 47.7 | 37.1% |
Alaska | 78% | Likely R | 125 | +4.0 | 45.5 | 49.5 | 10.0% |
Mississippi | 86% | Solid R | 122 | +11.3 | 41.0 | 52.3 | |
South Carolina | 86% | Likely R | 116 | +5.7 | 44.4 | 50.1 | |
Montana | 87% | Likely R | 107 | +7.7 | 43.1 | 50.8 | |
Louisiana | 90% | Solid R | 104 | +10.2 | 40.7 | 50.9 | |
Missouri | 90% | Likely R | 96 | +6.3 | 44.2 | 50.5 | |
Arkansas | 94% | Solid R | 86 | +2.6 | 45.4 | 48.0 | 30.3% |
Kansas | 94% | Likely R | 80 | +8.6 | 41.9 | 50.5 | |
NE-1 | 95% | Solid R | 74 | +5.2 | 45.0 | 50.2 | |
Tennessee | 96% | Solid R | 73 | +11.9 | 41.1 | 53.0 | |
Indiana | 96% | Likely R | 62 | +14.0 | 39.2 | 53.2 | |
Utah | 96% | Likely R | 51 | +11.9 | 37.3 | 49.2 | 5.9% |
Alabama | 97% | Solid R | 45 | +14.6 | 40.3 | 54.9 | |
South Dakota | 97% | Solid R | 36 | +19.2 | 39.7 | 58.9 | |
Kentucky | 99% | Solid R | 33 | +18.5 | 38.4 | 56.9 | |
Nebraska | 99% | Solid R | 25 | +19.0 | 39.6 | 58.6 | |
North Dakota | 99% | Solid R | 23 | +16.8 | 38.2 | 55.0 | |
West Virginia | 99% | Solid R | 20 | +28.8 | 33.9 | 62.7 | |
Oklahoma | 99% | Solid R | 15 | +23.1 | 34.7 | 57.8 | |
Idaho | 100% | Solid R | 8 | +24.4 | 34.9 | 59.3 | |
Wyoming | 100% | Solid R | 4 | +39.2 | 28.8 | 68.0 | |
NE-3 | 100% | Solid R | 1 | +46.2 | 25.8 | 72.0 |
Senate
Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)
States in Play:
State Prob Seats Polls ..D/R UVN | Dem >85% 45 |
84% 46 |
81% 47 |
77% 48 |
75% 49 |
74% 50 |
58% 51 |
59% 49 |
63% 48 |
68% 47 |
69% 46 |
72% 45 |
74% 44 |
74% 43 |
Rep >85% 42 |
All States:
State | 538 Prob | Cook Political | Cum. Seats | Polls | Dem | Rep | UVN |
D-cont | 100% | Solid D | 35 | nr | nr | nr | |
MA | 99% | Solid D | 36 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
RI | 99% | Solid D | 37 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
DE | 98% | Solid D | 38 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
IL | 98% | Solid D | 39 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
VA | 97% | Solid D | 40 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
NJ | 97% | Solid D | 41 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
NH | 96% | Solid D | 42 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
OR | 95% | Solid D | 43 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
MN | 89% | Solid D | 44 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
NM | 86% | Solid D | 45 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
AZ | 84% | Lean D | 46 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
MI | 81% | Lean D | 47 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
CO | 77% | Toss-Up | 48 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
NC | 75% | Toss-Up | 49 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
ME | 74% | Toss-Up | 50 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
IA | 58% | Toss-Up | 51 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
MT | 59% | Toss-Up | 49 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
GA2 | 63% | Lean R | 48 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
GA1 | 68% | Toss-Up | 47 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
KS | 69% | Lean R | 46 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
AK | 72% | Likely R | 45 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
SC | 74% | Lean R | 44 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
MS | 74% | Solid R | 43 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
TX | 85% | Likely R | 42 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
TN | 88% | Solid R | 41 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
LA | 93% | Solid R | 40 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
AL | 94% | Lean R | 39 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
KY | 95% | Likely R | 38 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
NE | 96% | Solid R | 37 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
SD | 97% | Solid R | 36 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
OK | 97% | Solid R | 35 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
ID | 97% | Solid R | 34 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
WV | 98% | Solid R | 33 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
WY | 99% | Solid R | 32 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
AR | 100% | Solid R | 31 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
R-cont | 100% | Solid R | 30 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
House
Race classification by Cook Political Report. Majority 218.
Solid | Likely | Lean | Toss-Up | Lean | Likely | Solid |
190 | 207 | 224 | 185 | 170 | 154 | |
190 seats | 17 seats | 17 seats | 26 seats | 15 seats | 16 seats | 154 seats |