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15/10: President: Biden 87% | Senate: Dem 73% | House: Dem 96%

Posted on October 16, 2020October 16, 2020 by data-art

President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook), Dem clearly favoured to win (538).

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DemocratRepublican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
278
NE2
77%
279
-7.4
51/43
FL
72%
308
-4.4
49/45
15.6%
AZ
67%
319
-3.9
49/45
20.0%
NC
67%
334
-2.9
49/46
20.4%
ME2
51%
335
-1.3
47/46
41.3%
OH
51%
353
-0.7
47/46
44.6%
GA
50%
369
-0.9
48/47
42.4%
IA
58%
169
-1.0
48/47
59.6%
TX
69%
163
+1.5
47/48
34.7%
AK
77%
125
+4.4
46/50
Rep
>85%
122

All states:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
EV
PollsDemRepUVN
District of Columbia100%Solid D3-85.390.95.6
Delaware100%Solid D6-24.858.934.1
New York100%Solid D35-30.862.431.6
Maryland100%Solid D45-32.362.830.5
Massachusetts100%Solid D56-37.265.928.7
Illinois100%Solid D76-18.256.438.2
Rhode Island100%Solid D80-24.360.836.5
California100%Solid D135-31.362.230.9
Connecticut100%Solid D142-24.758.734.0
Washington99%Solid D154-27.861.533.7
Vermont99%Solid D157-31.862.130.3
Hawaii99%Solid D161-30.662.331.7
Virginia99%Likely D174-12.752.940.2
New Jersey99%Solid D188-19.055.936.9
ME-198%Solid D189-26.959.632.7
Oregon97%Solid D196-19.357.037.7
New Mexico97%Solid D201-14.054.240.2
Colorado94%Likely D210-12.051.939.9
Minnesota92%Lean D220-9.250.341.1
Michigan91%Lean D236-8.051.243.2
Maine89%Likely D238-15.354.539.2
Wisconsin88%Lean D248-7.250.343.1
Pennsylvania87%Lean D268-7.351.043.7
Nevada87%Lean D274-6.850.143.3
New Hampshire86%Lean D278-10.853.542.7
NE-277%Lean D279-7.450.543.1
Florida72%Toss-Up308-4.449.044.615.6%
Arizona67%Lean D319-3.948.744.820.0%
North Carolina67%Toss-Up334-2.949.046.120.4%
ME-251%Toss-Up335-1.346.945.641.3%
Ohio51%Toss-Up353-0.747.146.444.6%
Georgia50%Toss-Up369-0.947.546.642.4%
Iowa58%Toss-Up169-1.047.946.959.6%
Texas69%Lean R163+1.546.848.334.7%
Alaska77%Likely R125+4.445.750.1
Mississippi88%Solid R122+12.140.953.0
South Carolina89%Likely R116+5.344.649.91.8%
Montana90%Likely R107+8.642.951.5
Missouri90%Likely R104+5.545.450.9
Kansas93%Likely R94+6.743.350.00.0%
Louisiana93%Solid R88+13.839.953.7
Indiana94%Likely R80+11.641.152.7
NE-194%Solid R69+4.345.549.84.3%
Utah96%Likely R68+12.639.151.7
Tennessee96%Solid R62+13.441.154.5
South Dakota97%Solid R51+19.438.357.7
Arkansas97%Solid R48+15.640.155.7
Alabama98%Solid R42+17.938.856.7
Kentucky99%Solid R33+18.038.956.9
West Virginia99%Solid R25+25.635.561.1
Nebraska99%Solid R20+11.042.553.5
North Dakota99%Solid R18+21.836.157.9
Oklahoma99%Solid R15+23.635.258.8
Idaho99%Solid R8+23.836.059.8
Wyoming100%Solid R4+38.629.067.6
NE-3100%Solid R1+46.025.971.9

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State
Prob
Seats
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
45
NM
85%
46
CO
84%
47
MI
83%
48
NC
78%
49
ME
76%
50
GA2
68%
51
IA
61%
52
KS
63%
48
AK
63%
47
MT
64%
46
GA1
66%
45
MS
72%
44
SC
77%
43
Rep
>85%
42

All States:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
Seats
PollsDemRepUVN
D-cont100%Solid D35nrnrnr
MA100%Solid D36    
RI100%Solid D37    
DE99%Solid D38    
IL99%Solid D39    
NJ97%Solid D40    
NH97%Solid D41    
OR96%Solid D42    
VA96%Solid D43    
MN88%Solid D44    
AZ86%Lean D45    
NM85%Solid D46    
CO84%Toss-Up47    
MI83%Lean D48    
NC78%Toss-Up49    
ME76%Toss-Up50    
GA268%Lean R51    
IA61%Toss-Up52    
KS63%Lean R48    
AK63%Likely R47    
MT64%Toss-Up46    
GA166%Toss-Up45    
MS72%Solid R44    
SC77%Lean R43    
TX85%Likely R42    
TN90%Solid R41    
LA93%Solid R40    
AL94%Lean R39    
KY95%Likely R38    
AR95%Solid R37    
WV96%Solid R36    
NE96%Solid R35    
OK97%Solid R34    
SD97%Solid R33    
ID98%Solid R32    
WY99%Solid R31    
R-cont100%Solid R30    

House

Race classification and probabilities by 538. Majority 218.

“
Called /
Solid
LikelyAhead /
Lean
Too close /
Toss-Up
Ahead /
Lean
LikelyCalled /
Solid
190
seats
221
seats
234
seats
–
seats
187
seats
167
seats
117
seats
190
seats
31
seats
13
seats
14
seats
20
seats
50
seats
117
seats
”
WA-10 100% (1)   WA-7 100% (2)   AL-7 100% (3)   CA-12 100% (4)   CA-13 100% (5)
CA-14 100% (6)   CA-18 100% (7)   CA-29 100% (8)   CA-34 100% (9)   CA-37 100% (10)
CA-38 100% (11)   CA-40 100% (12)   CA-43 100% (13)   CA-44 100% (14)   CA-53 100% (15)
FL-20 100% (16)   FL-24 100% (17)   GA-4 100% (18)   GA-5 100% (19)   IL-1 100% (20)
IL-2 100% (21)   IL-4 100% (22)   IL-7 100% (23)   LA-2 100% (24)   MA-3 100% (25)
MA-7 100% (26)   MA-8 100% (27)   MD-4 100% (28)   MD-7 100% (29)   MI-13 100% (30)
MI-14 100% (31)   MN-5 100% (32)   NJ-10 100% (33)   NJ-8 100% (34)   NY-10 100% (35)
NY-12 100% (36)   NY-13 100% (37)   NY-14 100% (38)   NY-15 100% (39)   NY-5 100% (40)
NY-7 100% (41)   NY-8 100% (42)   NY-9 100% (43)   OH-11 100% (44)   PA-2 100% (45)
PA-3 100% (46)   RI-1 100% (47)   TN-5 100% (48)   TN-9 100% (49)   TX-30 100% (50)
TX-9 100% (51)   WI-4 100% (52)   OR-3 100% (53)   TX-18 100% (54)   GA-13 100% (55)
CA-15 100% (56)   CA-20 100% (57)   CA-28 100% (58)   CA-5 100% (59)   CA-17 100% (60)
AZ-7 100% (61)   CA-11 100% (62)   WA-9 100% (63)   CA-19 100% (64)   VA-8 Called (65)
TX-33 100% (66)   VA-3 100% (67)   IL-5 100% (68)   CA-2 100% (69)   CA-51 100% (70)
CA-30 100% (71)   MA-5 100% (72)   OH-3 100% (73)   SC-6 100% (74)   CO-1 100% (75)
IL-9 100% (76)   NY-16 100% (77)   CA-6 100% (78)   NY-6 100% (79)   VA-11 100% (80)
NC-12 100% (81)   IL-8 100% (82)   MA-1 100% (83)   MD-8 100% (84)   HI-1 100% (85)
CA-35 100% (86)   CA-33 100% (87)   TX-29 100% (88)   CA-32 100% (89)   TX-16 100% (90)
MD-5 100% (91)   NC-4 100% (92)   CA-27 100% (93)   MS-2 100% (94)   NJ-9 100% (95)
MN-4 100% (96)   HI-2 100% (97)   PA-5 100% (98)   WI-2 100% (99)   NJ-12 100% (100)
MI-12 100% (101)   CA-46 100% (102)   VA-4 100% (103)   MD-3 100% (104)   PA-18 100% (105)
OH-9 100% (106)   AZ-3 100% (107)   CA-47 100% (108)   TX-35 100% (109)   NV-1 100% (110)
MO-1 100% (111)   FL-5 100% (112)   MD-2 100% (113)   WA-2 100% (114)   IN-7 100% (115)
NJ-1 100% (116)   FL-10 100% (117)   FL-23 100% (118)   IL-10 100% (119)   CT-1 100% (120)
CA-41 100% (121)   NY-26 100% (122)   KY-3 100% (123)   OR-1 100% (124)   NC-2 100% (125)
TX-20 100% (126)   VT-1 100% (127)   NC-6 100% (128)   IL-11 100% (129)   CO-2 100% (130)
MA-2 100% (131)   NY-25 100% (132)   PA-4 100% (133)   CT-4 100% (134)   CT-3 100% (135)
NY-17 100% (136)   CA-16 100% (137)   WA-1 100% (138)   NJ-6 100% (139)   RI-2 100% (140)
NY-20 100% (141)   CA-31 100% (142)   WA-6 100% (143)   TX-34 100% (144)   CA-52 100% (145)
CA-24 100% (146)   FL-21 100% (147)   CA-9 99% (148)   TX-28 99% (149)   FL-14 99% (150)
MD-6 99% (151)   NC-1 99% (152)   MA-4 99% (153)   CA-26 99% (154)   MA-6 99% (155)
AZ-9 99% (156)   MI-9 99% (157)   MI-5 99% (158)   NM-1 99% (159)   DE-1 99% (160)
OH-13 99% (161)   NY-4 99% (162)   FL-22 99% (163)   TX-15 99% (164)   IN-1 99% (165)
GA-2 99% (166)   CO-7 99% (167)   ME-1 99% (168)   FL-9 99% (169)   CA-3 99% (170)
MA-9 99% (171)   PA-6 98% (172)   CA-7 98% (173)   MN-3 98% (174)   ME-2 98% (175)
MO-5 97% (176)   CO-6 97% (177)   VA-10 97% (178)   WA-8 97% (179)   CA-49 97% (180)
NV-4 96% (181)   CT-2 96% (182)   AZ-2 96% (183)   CA-36 96% (184)   PA-7 96% (185)
CT-5 95% (186)   OR-5 95% (187)   FL-7 95% (188)   NM-3 95% (189)   FL-13 95% (190)
OR-4 93% (191)   KS-3 93% (192)   NY-18 93% (193)   CA-10 92% (194)   AZ-1 92% (195)
MI-11 92% (196)   NY-3 91% (197)   NH-1 91% (198)   VA-7 91% (199)   NV-3 90% (200)
NH-2 90% (201)   MI-8 90% (202)   CA-45 90% (203)   NY-19 89% (204)   WI-3 88% (205)
IL-17 87% (206)   PA-8 87% (207)   PA-17 86% (208)   NJ-5 86% (209)   IL-3 85% (210)
CA-48 85% (211)   NY-11 84% (212)   MN-2 84% (213)   NJ-11 84% (214)   FL-27 84% (215)
TX-32 84% (216)   IA-3 82% (217)   CA-39 82% (218)   IA-1 81% (219)   VA-2 81% (220)
FL-26 80% (221)   IL-14 74% (222)   NJ-3 74% (223)   NY-22 72% (224)   NJ-7 70% (225)
NY-2 70% (226)   CA-21 70% (227)   IL-6 67% (228)   TX-23 66% (229)   TX-7 66% (230)
NM-2 65% (231)   UT-4 63% (232)   NJ-2 62% (233)   SC-1 61% (234)   PA-10 58% (235)
GA-6 56% (236)   IA-2 56% (237)   IN-5 54% (238)   OK-5 52% (239)   VA-5 52% (240)
AK-1 51% (195)   NY-24 52% (194)   CA-25 52% (193)   MT-1 52% (192)   TX-24 52% (191)
TX-22 58% (190)   IL-13 58% (189)   MI-6 59% (188)   NC-9 60% (187)   NC-8 60% (186)
AR-2 61% (185)   CO-3 61% (184)   NE-2 62% (183)   GA-7 62% (182)   KY-6 62% (181)
NC-11 63% (180)   WA-3 64% (179)   AZ-6 64% (178)   MO-2 65% (177)   MI-3 65% (176)
OH-1 65% (175)   MN-1 68% (174)   CA-50 69% (173)   VA-1 70% (172)   NY-21 71% (171)
FL-18 72% (170)   FL-15 74% (169)   NY-1 74% (168)   MN-7 75% (167)   KS-2 75% (166)
TX-21 76% (165)   MN-8 77% (164)   OH-10 77% (163)   MI-7 78% (162)   WA-5 78% (161)
CA-8 78% (160)   PA-1 78% (159)   OH-14 80% (158)   TX-17 80% (157)   TX-10 80% (156)
TX-25 82% (155)   CA-22 82% (154)   TX-6 83% (153)   CA-4 83% (152)   FL-16 84% (151)
OH-12 85% (150)   TX-3 85% (149)   FL-3 85% (148)   TX-31 86% (147)   CA-1 86% (146)
MI-1 86% (145)   OH-15 87% (144)   OR-2 87% (143)   WI-1 87% (142)   NV-2 87% (141)
IL-12 87% (140)   MI-2 87% (139)   PA-16 87% (138)   NY-27 88% (137)   NY-23 89% (136)
OH-16 90% (135)   MI-10 91% (134)   MI-4 91% (133)   CA-42 91% (132)   NC-7 91% (131)
OH-2 91% (130)   NJ-4 91% (129)   LA-5 92% (128)   SC-7 92% (127)   SC-5 93% (126)
WI-8 93% (125)   WI-6 94% (124)   TX-2 94% (123)   IL-16 94% (122)   WI-7 94% (121)
UT-2 94% (120)   FL-6 94% (119)   KS-4 94% (118)   WI-5 95% (117)   LA-4 95% (116)
FL-19 95% (115)   VA-6 95% (114)   WA-4 95% (113)   FL-12 95% (112)   SC-2 95% (111)
MS-3 95% (110)   AL-1 96% (109)   NC-3 96% (108)   IN-2 96% (107)   IA-4 96% (106)
GA-1 96% (105)   NE-1 96% (104)   GA-12 96% (103)   MO-4 97% (102)   AL-2 97% (101)
OH-5 97% (100)   AZ-8 97% (99)   MO-6 97% (98)   AZ-5 97% (97)   TX-14 97% (96)
FL-8 97% (95)   MN-6 98% (94)   UT-1 98% (93)   CO-4 98% (92)   IN-9 98% (91)
OH-7 98% (90)   OK-1 98% (89)   WV-2 98% (88)   CO-5 99% (87)   CA-23 99% (86)
UT-3 99% (85)   MS-1 99% (84)   PA-11 99% (83)   ID-2 99% (82)   FL-4 99% (81)
PA-14 99% (80)   TX-27 99% (79)   MO-3 99% (78)   AR-4 99% (77)   SC-4 99% (76)
FL-17 99% (75)   IN-8 99% (74)   OH-4 99% (73)   KY-4 99% (72)   AL-3 99% (71)
PA-9 99% (70)   MD-1 99% (69)   WV-1 99% (68)   MO-7 99% (67)   IL-18 99% (66)
AR-3 99% (65)   NC-5 99% (64)   GA-10 99% (63)   IN-4 100% (62)   KY-2 100% (61)
TX-5 100% (60)   OK-4 100% (59)   KS-1 100% (58)   TX-26 100% (57)   OH-6 100% (56)
NC-13 100% (55)   IN-3 100% (54)   PA-12 100% (53)   NC-10 100% (52)   ND-1 100% (51)
FL-11 100% (50)   IN-6 100% (49)   TN-3 100% (48)   OH-8 100% (47)   LA-6 100% (46)
GA-11 100% (45)   GA-8 100% (44)   TN-8 100% (43)   MO-8 100% (42)   TX-12 100% (41)
IL-15 100% (40)   WV-3 100% (39)   ID-1 100% (38)   SC-3 100% (37)   GA-3 100% (36)
TN-4 100% (35)   TN-7 100% (34)   TN-2 100% (33)   KY-1 100% (32)   PA-15 100% (31)
OK-2 100% (30)   AZ-4 100% (29)   WY-1 100% (28)   LA-1 100% (27)   LA-3 100% (26)
PA-13 100% (25)   FL-1 100% (24)   TN-6 100% (23)   TX-4 100% (22)   TN-1 100% (21)
TX-1 100% (20)   OK-3 100% (19)   KY-5 100% (18)   TX-36 100% (17)   TX-19 100% (16)
TX-8 100% (15)   AL-6 100% (14)   FL-2 100% (13)   VA-9 100% (12)   SD-1 100% (11)
NE-3 100% (10)   GA-9 100% (9)   AL-4 100% (8)   TX-13 100% (7)   TX-11 100% (6)
AL-5 100% (5)   AR-1 100% (4)   FL-25 100% (3)   GA-14 100% (2)   MS-4 Called (1)

Recent Posts

  • With results: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%
  • Final: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%
  • 30/10: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 77% | House: Dem 98%
  • 27/10: President: Biden 88% | Senate: Dem 74% | House: Dem 96%
  • 21/10: President: Biden 87% | Senate: Dem 74% | House: Dem 96%

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