President: Biden favoured to win (538), lean Biden (Cook). Senate: toss-up (Cook), Dem slightly favoured to win (538). House: lean Dem (Cook), Dem clearly favoured to win (538).
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| Democrat | Republican |
President
States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)
States in play:
| State Prob EV Polls ..D/R UVN | Dem >85% 278 |
77% 279 -7.4 51/43 |
72% 308 -4.4 49/45 15.6% |
67% 319 -3.9 49/45 20.0% |
67% 334 -2.9 49/46 20.4% |
51% 335 -1.3 47/46 41.3% |
51% 353 -0.7 47/46 44.6% |
50% 369 -0.9 48/47 42.4% |
58% 169 -1.0 48/47 59.6% |
69% 163 +1.5 47/48 34.7% |
77% 125 +4.4 46/50 |
Rep >85% 122 |
All states:
| State | 538 Prob | Cook Political | Cum. EV | Polls | Dem | Rep | UVN |
| District of Columbia | 100% | Solid D | 3 | -85.3 | 90.9 | 5.6 | |
| Delaware | 100% | Solid D | 6 | -24.8 | 58.9 | 34.1 | |
| New York | 100% | Solid D | 35 | -30.8 | 62.4 | 31.6 | |
| Maryland | 100% | Solid D | 45 | -32.3 | 62.8 | 30.5 | |
| Massachusetts | 100% | Solid D | 56 | -37.2 | 65.9 | 28.7 | |
| Illinois | 100% | Solid D | 76 | -18.2 | 56.4 | 38.2 | |
| Rhode Island | 100% | Solid D | 80 | -24.3 | 60.8 | 36.5 | |
| California | 100% | Solid D | 135 | -31.3 | 62.2 | 30.9 | |
| Connecticut | 100% | Solid D | 142 | -24.7 | 58.7 | 34.0 | |
| Washington | 99% | Solid D | 154 | -27.8 | 61.5 | 33.7 | |
| Vermont | 99% | Solid D | 157 | -31.8 | 62.1 | 30.3 | |
| Hawaii | 99% | Solid D | 161 | -30.6 | 62.3 | 31.7 | |
| Virginia | 99% | Likely D | 174 | -12.7 | 52.9 | 40.2 | |
| New Jersey | 99% | Solid D | 188 | -19.0 | 55.9 | 36.9 | |
| ME-1 | 98% | Solid D | 189 | -26.9 | 59.6 | 32.7 | |
| Oregon | 97% | Solid D | 196 | -19.3 | 57.0 | 37.7 | |
| New Mexico | 97% | Solid D | 201 | -14.0 | 54.2 | 40.2 | |
| Colorado | 94% | Likely D | 210 | -12.0 | 51.9 | 39.9 | |
| Minnesota | 92% | Lean D | 220 | -9.2 | 50.3 | 41.1 | |
| Michigan | 91% | Lean D | 236 | -8.0 | 51.2 | 43.2 | |
| Maine | 89% | Likely D | 238 | -15.3 | 54.5 | 39.2 | |
| Wisconsin | 88% | Lean D | 248 | -7.2 | 50.3 | 43.1 | |
| Pennsylvania | 87% | Lean D | 268 | -7.3 | 51.0 | 43.7 | |
| Nevada | 87% | Lean D | 274 | -6.8 | 50.1 | 43.3 | |
| New Hampshire | 86% | Lean D | 278 | -10.8 | 53.5 | 42.7 | |
| NE-2 | 77% | Lean D | 279 | -7.4 | 50.5 | 43.1 | |
| Florida | 72% | Toss-Up | 308 | -4.4 | 49.0 | 44.6 | 15.6% |
| Arizona | 67% | Lean D | 319 | -3.9 | 48.7 | 44.8 | 20.0% |
| North Carolina | 67% | Toss-Up | 334 | -2.9 | 49.0 | 46.1 | 20.4% |
| ME-2 | 51% | Toss-Up | 335 | -1.3 | 46.9 | 45.6 | 41.3% |
| Ohio | 51% | Toss-Up | 353 | -0.7 | 47.1 | 46.4 | 44.6% |
| Georgia | 50% | Toss-Up | 369 | -0.9 | 47.5 | 46.6 | 42.4% |
| Iowa | 58% | Toss-Up | 169 | -1.0 | 47.9 | 46.9 | 59.6% |
| Texas | 69% | Lean R | 163 | +1.5 | 46.8 | 48.3 | 34.7% |
| Alaska | 77% | Likely R | 125 | +4.4 | 45.7 | 50.1 | |
| Mississippi | 88% | Solid R | 122 | +12.1 | 40.9 | 53.0 | |
| South Carolina | 89% | Likely R | 116 | +5.3 | 44.6 | 49.9 | 1.8% |
| Montana | 90% | Likely R | 107 | +8.6 | 42.9 | 51.5 | |
| Missouri | 90% | Likely R | 104 | +5.5 | 45.4 | 50.9 | |
| Kansas | 93% | Likely R | 94 | +6.7 | 43.3 | 50.0 | 0.0% |
| Louisiana | 93% | Solid R | 88 | +13.8 | 39.9 | 53.7 | |
| Indiana | 94% | Likely R | 80 | +11.6 | 41.1 | 52.7 | |
| NE-1 | 94% | Solid R | 69 | +4.3 | 45.5 | 49.8 | 4.3% |
| Utah | 96% | Likely R | 68 | +12.6 | 39.1 | 51.7 | |
| Tennessee | 96% | Solid R | 62 | +13.4 | 41.1 | 54.5 | |
| South Dakota | 97% | Solid R | 51 | +19.4 | 38.3 | 57.7 | |
| Arkansas | 97% | Solid R | 48 | +15.6 | 40.1 | 55.7 | |
| Alabama | 98% | Solid R | 42 | +17.9 | 38.8 | 56.7 | |
| Kentucky | 99% | Solid R | 33 | +18.0 | 38.9 | 56.9 | |
| West Virginia | 99% | Solid R | 25 | +25.6 | 35.5 | 61.1 | |
| Nebraska | 99% | Solid R | 20 | +11.0 | 42.5 | 53.5 | |
| North Dakota | 99% | Solid R | 18 | +21.8 | 36.1 | 57.9 | |
| Oklahoma | 99% | Solid R | 15 | +23.6 | 35.2 | 58.8 | |
| Idaho | 99% | Solid R | 8 | +23.8 | 36.0 | 59.8 | |
| Wyoming | 100% | Solid R | 4 | +38.6 | 29.0 | 67.6 | |
| NE-3 | 100% | Solid R | 1 | +46.0 | 25.9 | 71.9 |
Senate
Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)
States in Play:
| State Prob Seats Polls ..D/R UVN | Dem >85% 45 |
85% 46 |
84% 47 |
83% 48 |
78% 49 |
76% 50 |
68% 51 |
61% 52 |
63% 48 |
63% 47 |
64% 46 |
66% 45 |
72% 44 |
77% 43 |
Rep >85% 42 |
All States:
| State | 538 Prob | Cook Political | Cum. Seats | Polls | Dem | Rep | UVN |
| D-cont | 100% | Solid D | 35 | nr | nr | nr | |
| MA | 100% | Solid D | 36 | ||||
| RI | 100% | Solid D | 37 | ||||
| DE | 99% | Solid D | 38 | ||||
| IL | 99% | Solid D | 39 | ||||
| NJ | 97% | Solid D | 40 | ||||
| NH | 97% | Solid D | 41 | ||||
| OR | 96% | Solid D | 42 | ||||
| VA | 96% | Solid D | 43 | ||||
| MN | 88% | Solid D | 44 | ||||
| AZ | 86% | Lean D | 45 | ||||
| NM | 85% | Solid D | 46 | ||||
| CO | 84% | Toss-Up | 47 | ||||
| MI | 83% | Lean D | 48 | ||||
| NC | 78% | Toss-Up | 49 | ||||
| ME | 76% | Toss-Up | 50 | ||||
| GA2 | 68% | Lean R | 51 | ||||
| IA | 61% | Toss-Up | 52 | ||||
| KS | 63% | Lean R | 48 | ||||
| AK | 63% | Likely R | 47 | ||||
| MT | 64% | Toss-Up | 46 | ||||
| GA1 | 66% | Toss-Up | 45 | ||||
| MS | 72% | Solid R | 44 | ||||
| SC | 77% | Lean R | 43 | ||||
| TX | 85% | Likely R | 42 | ||||
| TN | 90% | Solid R | 41 | ||||
| LA | 93% | Solid R | 40 | ||||
| AL | 94% | Lean R | 39 | ||||
| KY | 95% | Likely R | 38 | ||||
| AR | 95% | Solid R | 37 | ||||
| WV | 96% | Solid R | 36 | ||||
| NE | 96% | Solid R | 35 | ||||
| OK | 97% | Solid R | 34 | ||||
| SD | 97% | Solid R | 33 | ||||
| ID | 98% | Solid R | 32 | ||||
| WY | 99% | Solid R | 31 | ||||
| R-cont | 100% | Solid R | 30 |
House
Race classification and probabilities by 538. Majority 218.
“| Called / Solid | Likely | Ahead / Lean | Too close / Toss-Up | Ahead / Lean | Likely | Called / Solid |
| 190 seats | 221 seats | 234 seats | – seats | 187 seats | 167 seats | 117 seats |
| 190 seats | 31 seats | 13 seats | 14 seats | 20 seats | 50 seats | 117 seats |
| WA-10 100% (1) | WA-7 100% (2) | AL-7 100% (3) | CA-12 100% (4) | CA-13 100% (5) | ||||
| CA-14 100% (6) | CA-18 100% (7) | CA-29 100% (8) | CA-34 100% (9) | CA-37 100% (10) | ||||
| CA-38 100% (11) | CA-40 100% (12) | CA-43 100% (13) | CA-44 100% (14) | CA-53 100% (15) | ||||
| FL-20 100% (16) | FL-24 100% (17) | GA-4 100% (18) | GA-5 100% (19) | IL-1 100% (20) | ||||
| IL-2 100% (21) | IL-4 100% (22) | IL-7 100% (23) | LA-2 100% (24) | MA-3 100% (25) | ||||
| MA-7 100% (26) | MA-8 100% (27) | MD-4 100% (28) | MD-7 100% (29) | MI-13 100% (30) | ||||
| MI-14 100% (31) | MN-5 100% (32) | NJ-10 100% (33) | NJ-8 100% (34) | NY-10 100% (35) | ||||
| NY-12 100% (36) | NY-13 100% (37) | NY-14 100% (38) | NY-15 100% (39) | NY-5 100% (40) | ||||
| NY-7 100% (41) | NY-8 100% (42) | NY-9 100% (43) | OH-11 100% (44) | PA-2 100% (45) | ||||
| PA-3 100% (46) | RI-1 100% (47) | TN-5 100% (48) | TN-9 100% (49) | TX-30 100% (50) | ||||
| TX-9 100% (51) | WI-4 100% (52) | OR-3 100% (53) | TX-18 100% (54) | GA-13 100% (55) | ||||
| CA-15 100% (56) | CA-20 100% (57) | CA-28 100% (58) | CA-5 100% (59) | CA-17 100% (60) | ||||
| AZ-7 100% (61) | CA-11 100% (62) | WA-9 100% (63) | CA-19 100% (64) | VA-8 Called (65) | ||||
| TX-33 100% (66) | VA-3 100% (67) | IL-5 100% (68) | CA-2 100% (69) | CA-51 100% (70) | ||||
| CA-30 100% (71) | MA-5 100% (72) | OH-3 100% (73) | SC-6 100% (74) | CO-1 100% (75) | ||||
| IL-9 100% (76) | NY-16 100% (77) | CA-6 100% (78) | NY-6 100% (79) | VA-11 100% (80) | ||||
| NC-12 100% (81) | IL-8 100% (82) | MA-1 100% (83) | MD-8 100% (84) | HI-1 100% (85) | ||||
| CA-35 100% (86) | CA-33 100% (87) | TX-29 100% (88) | CA-32 100% (89) | TX-16 100% (90) | ||||
| MD-5 100% (91) | NC-4 100% (92) | CA-27 100% (93) | MS-2 100% (94) | NJ-9 100% (95) | ||||
| MN-4 100% (96) | HI-2 100% (97) | PA-5 100% (98) | WI-2 100% (99) | NJ-12 100% (100) | ||||
| MI-12 100% (101) | CA-46 100% (102) | VA-4 100% (103) | MD-3 100% (104) | PA-18 100% (105) | ||||
| OH-9 100% (106) | AZ-3 100% (107) | CA-47 100% (108) | TX-35 100% (109) | NV-1 100% (110) | ||||
| MO-1 100% (111) | FL-5 100% (112) | MD-2 100% (113) | WA-2 100% (114) | IN-7 100% (115) | ||||
| NJ-1 100% (116) | FL-10 100% (117) | FL-23 100% (118) | IL-10 100% (119) | CT-1 100% (120) | ||||
| CA-41 100% (121) | NY-26 100% (122) | KY-3 100% (123) | OR-1 100% (124) | NC-2 100% (125) | ||||
| TX-20 100% (126) | VT-1 100% (127) | NC-6 100% (128) | IL-11 100% (129) | CO-2 100% (130) | ||||
| MA-2 100% (131) | NY-25 100% (132) | PA-4 100% (133) | CT-4 100% (134) | CT-3 100% (135) | ||||
| NY-17 100% (136) | CA-16 100% (137) | WA-1 100% (138) | NJ-6 100% (139) | RI-2 100% (140) | ||||
| NY-20 100% (141) | CA-31 100% (142) | WA-6 100% (143) | TX-34 100% (144) | CA-52 100% (145) | ||||
| CA-24 100% (146) | FL-21 100% (147) | CA-9 99% (148) | TX-28 99% (149) | FL-14 99% (150) | ||||
| MD-6 99% (151) | NC-1 99% (152) | MA-4 99% (153) | CA-26 99% (154) | MA-6 99% (155) | ||||
| AZ-9 99% (156) | MI-9 99% (157) | MI-5 99% (158) | NM-1 99% (159) | DE-1 99% (160) | ||||
| OH-13 99% (161) | NY-4 99% (162) | FL-22 99% (163) | TX-15 99% (164) | IN-1 99% (165) | ||||
| GA-2 99% (166) | CO-7 99% (167) | ME-1 99% (168) | FL-9 99% (169) | CA-3 99% (170) | ||||
| MA-9 99% (171) | PA-6 98% (172) | CA-7 98% (173) | MN-3 98% (174) | ME-2 98% (175) | ||||
| MO-5 97% (176) | CO-6 97% (177) | VA-10 97% (178) | WA-8 97% (179) | CA-49 97% (180) | ||||
| NV-4 96% (181) | CT-2 96% (182) | AZ-2 96% (183) | CA-36 96% (184) | PA-7 96% (185) | ||||
| CT-5 95% (186) | OR-5 95% (187) | FL-7 95% (188) | NM-3 95% (189) | FL-13 95% (190) | ||||
| OR-4 93% (191) | KS-3 93% (192) | NY-18 93% (193) | CA-10 92% (194) | AZ-1 92% (195) | ||||
| MI-11 92% (196) | NY-3 91% (197) | NH-1 91% (198) | VA-7 91% (199) | NV-3 90% (200) | ||||
| NH-2 90% (201) | MI-8 90% (202) | CA-45 90% (203) | NY-19 89% (204) | WI-3 88% (205) | ||||
| IL-17 87% (206) | PA-8 87% (207) | PA-17 86% (208) | NJ-5 86% (209) | IL-3 85% (210) | ||||
| CA-48 85% (211) | NY-11 84% (212) | MN-2 84% (213) | NJ-11 84% (214) | FL-27 84% (215) | ||||
| TX-32 84% (216) | IA-3 82% (217) | CA-39 82% (218) | IA-1 81% (219) | VA-2 81% (220) | ||||
| FL-26 80% (221) | IL-14 74% (222) | NJ-3 74% (223) | NY-22 72% (224) | NJ-7 70% (225) | ||||
| NY-2 70% (226) | CA-21 70% (227) | IL-6 67% (228) | TX-23 66% (229) | TX-7 66% (230) | ||||
| NM-2 65% (231) | UT-4 63% (232) | NJ-2 62% (233) | SC-1 61% (234) | PA-10 58% (235) | ||||
| GA-6 56% (236) | IA-2 56% (237) | IN-5 54% (238) | OK-5 52% (239) | VA-5 52% (240) | ||||
| AK-1 51% (195) | NY-24 52% (194) | CA-25 52% (193) | MT-1 52% (192) | TX-24 52% (191) | ||||
| TX-22 58% (190) | IL-13 58% (189) | MI-6 59% (188) | NC-9 60% (187) | NC-8 60% (186) | ||||
| AR-2 61% (185) | CO-3 61% (184) | NE-2 62% (183) | GA-7 62% (182) | KY-6 62% (181) | ||||
| NC-11 63% (180) | WA-3 64% (179) | AZ-6 64% (178) | MO-2 65% (177) | MI-3 65% (176) | ||||
| OH-1 65% (175) | MN-1 68% (174) | CA-50 69% (173) | VA-1 70% (172) | NY-21 71% (171) | ||||
| FL-18 72% (170) | FL-15 74% (169) | NY-1 74% (168) | MN-7 75% (167) | KS-2 75% (166) | ||||
| TX-21 76% (165) | MN-8 77% (164) | OH-10 77% (163) | MI-7 78% (162) | WA-5 78% (161) | ||||
| CA-8 78% (160) | PA-1 78% (159) | OH-14 80% (158) | TX-17 80% (157) | TX-10 80% (156) | ||||
| TX-25 82% (155) | CA-22 82% (154) | TX-6 83% (153) | CA-4 83% (152) | FL-16 84% (151) | ||||
| OH-12 85% (150) | TX-3 85% (149) | FL-3 85% (148) | TX-31 86% (147) | CA-1 86% (146) | ||||
| MI-1 86% (145) | OH-15 87% (144) | OR-2 87% (143) | WI-1 87% (142) | NV-2 87% (141) | ||||
| IL-12 87% (140) | MI-2 87% (139) | PA-16 87% (138) | NY-27 88% (137) | NY-23 89% (136) | ||||
| OH-16 90% (135) | MI-10 91% (134) | MI-4 91% (133) | CA-42 91% (132) | NC-7 91% (131) | ||||
| OH-2 91% (130) | NJ-4 91% (129) | LA-5 92% (128) | SC-7 92% (127) | SC-5 93% (126) | ||||
| WI-8 93% (125) | WI-6 94% (124) | TX-2 94% (123) | IL-16 94% (122) | WI-7 94% (121) | ||||
| UT-2 94% (120) | FL-6 94% (119) | KS-4 94% (118) | WI-5 95% (117) | LA-4 95% (116) | ||||
| FL-19 95% (115) | VA-6 95% (114) | WA-4 95% (113) | FL-12 95% (112) | SC-2 95% (111) | ||||
| MS-3 95% (110) | AL-1 96% (109) | NC-3 96% (108) | IN-2 96% (107) | IA-4 96% (106) | ||||
| GA-1 96% (105) | NE-1 96% (104) | GA-12 96% (103) | MO-4 97% (102) | AL-2 97% (101) | ||||
| OH-5 97% (100) | AZ-8 97% (99) | MO-6 97% (98) | AZ-5 97% (97) | TX-14 97% (96) | ||||
| FL-8 97% (95) | MN-6 98% (94) | UT-1 98% (93) | CO-4 98% (92) | IN-9 98% (91) | ||||
| OH-7 98% (90) | OK-1 98% (89) | WV-2 98% (88) | CO-5 99% (87) | CA-23 99% (86) | ||||
| UT-3 99% (85) | MS-1 99% (84) | PA-11 99% (83) | ID-2 99% (82) | FL-4 99% (81) | ||||
| PA-14 99% (80) | TX-27 99% (79) | MO-3 99% (78) | AR-4 99% (77) | SC-4 99% (76) | ||||
| FL-17 99% (75) | IN-8 99% (74) | OH-4 99% (73) | KY-4 99% (72) | AL-3 99% (71) | ||||
| PA-9 99% (70) | MD-1 99% (69) | WV-1 99% (68) | MO-7 99% (67) | IL-18 99% (66) | ||||
| AR-3 99% (65) | NC-5 99% (64) | GA-10 99% (63) | IN-4 100% (62) | KY-2 100% (61) | ||||
| TX-5 100% (60) | OK-4 100% (59) | KS-1 100% (58) | TX-26 100% (57) | OH-6 100% (56) | ||||
| NC-13 100% (55) | IN-3 100% (54) | PA-12 100% (53) | NC-10 100% (52) | ND-1 100% (51) | ||||
| FL-11 100% (50) | IN-6 100% (49) | TN-3 100% (48) | OH-8 100% (47) | LA-6 100% (46) | ||||
| GA-11 100% (45) | GA-8 100% (44) | TN-8 100% (43) | MO-8 100% (42) | TX-12 100% (41) | ||||
| IL-15 100% (40) | WV-3 100% (39) | ID-1 100% (38) | SC-3 100% (37) | GA-3 100% (36) | ||||
| TN-4 100% (35) | TN-7 100% (34) | TN-2 100% (33) | KY-1 100% (32) | PA-15 100% (31) | ||||
| OK-2 100% (30) | AZ-4 100% (29) | WY-1 100% (28) | LA-1 100% (27) | LA-3 100% (26) | ||||
| PA-13 100% (25) | FL-1 100% (24) | TN-6 100% (23) | TX-4 100% (22) | TN-1 100% (21) | ||||
| TX-1 100% (20) | OK-3 100% (19) | KY-5 100% (18) | TX-36 100% (17) | TX-19 100% (16) | ||||
| TX-8 100% (15) | AL-6 100% (14) | FL-2 100% (13) | VA-9 100% (12) | SD-1 100% (11) | ||||
| NE-3 100% (10) | GA-9 100% (9) | AL-4 100% (8) | TX-13 100% (7) | TX-11 100% (6) | ||||
| AL-5 100% (5) | AR-1 100% (4) | FL-25 100% (3) | GA-14 100% (2) | MS-4 Called (1) |