| Called / Solid | Likely | Ahead / Lean | Too close / Toss-up | Ahead / Lean | Likely | Called / Solid | |
| President | 210 | 278 | 290 | 85 | 163 | 122 | 80 |
| Senate | 43 | 47 | 51 | 3 | 46 | 42 | 38 |
| House | 188 | 221 | 233 | 18 | 184 | 164 | 110 |
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| Democrat | Republican |
President
States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)
States in play:
| State Prob EV Polls ..D/R UVN | Dem >85% 278 |
78% 279 -6.5 51/44 |
67% 290 -2.9 49/46 22.6% |
64% 319 -1.9 49/47 27.9% |
63% 334 -2.0 49/47 23.7% |
54% 335 -2.9 47/44 34.7% |
52% 351 -1.1 48/47 39.2% |
51% 357 -1.7 48/46 35.6% |
58% 181 +1.7 46/48 34.5% |
68% 163 +1.4 47/48 37.5% |
82% 125 +4.4 46/50 |
Rep >85% 122 |
All states:
| State | 538 Prob | Rating | Cum. EV | Polls | Dem | Rep | UVN |
| District of Columbia | 100% | Solid D | 3 | -75.7 | 86.3 | 10.6 | |
| Delaware | 100% | Solid D | 6 | -24.8 | 58.9 | 34.1 | |
| New York | 100% | Solid D | 35 | -30.8 | 62.4 | 31.6 | |
| Massachusetts | 100% | Solid D | 46 | -37.2 | 65.9 | 28.7 | |
| Maryland | 100% | Solid D | 56 | -32.3 | 62.8 | 30.5 | |
| Illinois | 100% | Solid D | 76 | -18.2 | 56.4 | 38.2 | |
| Rhode Island | 100% | Solid D | 80 | -24.3 | 60.8 | 36.5 | |
| Connecticut | 100% | Solid D | 87 | -24.7 | 58.7 | 34.0 | |
| California | 100% | Solid D | 142 | -31.3 | 62.2 | 30.9 | |
| Vermont | 99% | Solid D | 145 | -31.8 | 62.1 | 30.3 | |
| Hawaii | 99% | Solid D | 149 | -30.6 | 62.3 | 31.7 | |
| Washington | 99% | Solid D | 161 | -27.8 | 61.5 | 33.7 | |
| Virginia | 99% | Solid D | 174 | -12.7 | 52.9 | 40.2 | |
| New Jersey | 99% | Solid D | 188 | -19.0 | 55.9 | 36.9 | |
| ME-1 | 98% | Solid D | 189 | -26.9 | 59.6 | 32.7 | |
| Oregon | 98% | Solid D | 196 | -19.3 | 57.0 | 37.7 | |
| New Mexico | 97% | Solid D | 201 | -14.0 | 54.2 | 40.2 | |
| Colorado | 96% | Solid D | 210 | -12.0 | 51.9 | 39.9 | |
| Michigan | 94% | Likely D | 226 | -8.0 | 50.8 | 42.8 | |
| Minnesota | 94% | Likely D | 236 | -9.2 | 51.1 | 41.9 | |
| Wisconsin | 94% | Likely D | 246 | -9.0 | 52.4 | 43.4 | |
| Maine | 90% | Likely D | 248 | -14.6 | 53.8 | 39.2 | |
| Nevada | 90% | Likely D | 254 | -6.4 | 49.8 | 43.4 | 2.9% |
| New Hampshire | 88% | Likely D | 258 | -11.2 | 53.7 | 42.5 | |
| Pennsylvania | 86% | Likely D | 278 | -5.3 | 50.2 | 44.9 | |
| NE-2 | 78% | Lean D | 279 | -6.5 | 50.5 | 44.0 | |
| Arizona | 67% | Lean D | 290 | -2.9 | 48.8 | 45.9 | 22.6% |
| Florida | 64% | Toss-up | 319 | -1.9 | 48.8 | 46.9 | 27.9% |
| North Carolina | 63% | Toss-up | 334 | -2.0 | 49.1 | 47.1 | 23.7% |
| ME-2 | 54% | Toss-up | 335 | -2.9 | 46.7 | 43.8 | 34.7% |
| Georgia | 52% | Toss-up | 351 | -1.1 | 48.0 | 46.9 | 39.2% |
| Iowa | 51% | Toss-up | 357 | -1.7 | 47.9 | 46.2 | 35.6% |
| Ohio | 58% | Toss-up | 181 | +1.7 | 46.4 | 48.1 | 34.5% |
| Texas | 68% | Lean R | 163 | +1.4 | 46.5 | 47.9 | 37.5% |
| Alaska | 82% | Lean R | 125 | +4.4 | 45.7 | 50.1 | |
| Montana | 86% | Likely R | 122 | +8.6 | 42.9 | 51.5 | |
| Mississippi | 91% | Likely R | 119 | +12.1 | 40.9 | 53.0 | |
| South Carolina | 91% | Likely R | 113 | +7.7 | 43.4 | 51.1 | |
| Missouri | 92% | Likely R | 104 | +5.5 | 45.4 | 50.9 | |
| South Dakota | 94% | Likely R | 94 | +19.4 | 38.3 | 57.7 | |
| Indiana | 94% | Likely R | 91 | +11.6 | 41.1 | 52.7 | |
| NE-1 | 96% | Solid R | 80 | +4.3 | 45.5 | 49.8 | 4.3% |
| Utah | 96% | Solid R | 79 | +12.6 | 39.1 | 51.7 | |
| Louisiana | 96% | Solid R | 73 | +13.8 | 39.9 | 53.7 | |
| Kansas | 96% | Solid R | 65 | +6.7 | 43.3 | 50.0 | 0.0% |
| Tennessee | 97% | Solid R | 59 | +13.4 | 41.1 | 54.5 | |
| Alabama | 98% | Solid R | 48 | +17.9 | 38.8 | 56.7 | |
| North Dakota | 98% | Solid R | 39 | +21.8 | 36.1 | 57.9 | |
| Arkansas | 99% | Solid R | 36 | +15.6 | 40.1 | 55.7 | |
| Kentucky | 99% | Solid R | 30 | +18.0 | 38.9 | 56.9 | |
| West Virginia | 99% | Solid R | 22 | +25.6 | 35.5 | 61.1 | |
| Nebraska | 99% | Solid R | 17 | +11.0 | 42.5 | 53.5 | |
| Oklahoma | 99% | Solid R | 15 | +23.6 | 35.2 | 58.8 | |
| Idaho | 99% | Solid R | 8 | +23.8 | 36.0 | 59.8 | |
| Wyoming | 100% | Solid R | 4 | +38.6 | 29.0 | 67.6 | |
| NE-3 | 100% | Solid R | 1 | +46.0 | 25.9 | 71.9 |
Senate
Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)
States in Play:
| State Prob Seats | Dem >85% 46 |
84% 47 |
82% 48 |
75% 49 |
73% 50 |
72% 51 |
58% 52 |
58% 48 |
64% 47 |
66% 46 |
71% 45 |
78% 44 |
80% 43 |
Rep >85% 42 |
All States:
| State | 538 Prob | Cook Political | Cum. Seats | Polls | Dem | Rep | UVN |
| D-cont | 100% | D-called | 35 | ||||
| MA | 100% | Solid D | 36 | ||||
| RI | 100% | Solid D | 37 | ||||
| NJ | 99% | Solid D | 38 | ||||
| DE | 99% | Solid D | 39 | ||||
| VA | 99% | Solid D | 40 | ||||
| IL | 99% | Solid D | 41 | ||||
| NH | 98% | Solid D | 42 | ||||
| OR | 97% | Solid D | 43 | ||||
| CO | 87% | Likely D | 44 | ||||
| MI | 87% | Likely D | 45 | ||||
| MN | 87% | Likely D | 46 | ||||
| AZ | 84% | Likely D | 47 | ||||
| NM | 82% | Lean D | 48 | ||||
| ME | 75% | Lean D | 49 | ||||
| GA2 | 73% | Lean D | 50 | ||||
| NC | 72% | Lean D | 51 | ||||
| IA | 58% | Toss-up | 52 | ||||
| GA1 | 58% | Toss-up | 48 | ||||
| MT | 64% | Toss-up | 47 | ||||
| KS | 66% | Lean R | 46 | ||||
| AK | 71% | Lean R | 45 | ||||
| SC | 78% | Lean R | 44 | ||||
| MS | 80% | Lean R | 43 | ||||
| TX | 87% | Likely R | 42 | ||||
| KY | 92% | Likely R | 41 | ||||
| AL | 93% | Likely R | 40 | ||||
| LA | 94% | Likely R | 39 | ||||
| WV | 96% | Solid R | 38 | ||||
| TN | 96% | Solid R | 37 | ||||
| OK | 97% | Solid R | 36 | ||||
| ID | 98% | Solid R | 35 | ||||
| SD | 98% | Solid R | 34 | ||||
| NE | 99% | Solid R | 33 | ||||
| WY | 99% | Solid R | 32 | ||||
| AR | 100% | Solid R | 31 | ||||
| R-cont | 100% | R-called | 30 |
House
Race classification and probabilities by 538. Majority 218.
“| Called / Solid | Likely | Ahead / Lean | Too close / Toss-Up | Ahead / Lean | Likely | Called / Solid |
| 188 seats | 221 seats | 233 seats | – seats | 184 seats | 164 seats | 110 seats |
| 188 seats | 33 seats | 12 seats | 18 seats | 20 seats | 54 seats | 110 seats |
| WA-10 100% (1) | WA-7 100% (2) | AL-7 100% (3) | CA-12 100% (4) | CA-13 100% (5) | ||||
| CA-14 100% (6) | CA-18 100% (7) | CA-29 100% (8) | CA-34 100% (9) | CA-37 100% (10) | ||||
| CA-38 100% (11) | CA-40 100% (12) | CA-43 100% (13) | CA-44 100% (14) | CA-53 100% (15) | ||||
| FL-20 100% (16) | FL-24 100% (17) | GA-4 100% (18) | GA-5 100% (19) | IL-2 100% (20) | ||||
| IL-4 100% (21) | IL-7 100% (22) | LA-2 100% (23) | MA-3 100% (24) | MA-7 100% (25) | ||||
| MA-8 100% (26) | MD-4 100% (27) | MD-7 100% (28) | MI-13 100% (29) | MI-14 100% (30) | ||||
| MN-5 100% (31) | NJ-10 100% (32) | NY-10 100% (33) | NY-12 100% (34) | NY-13 100% (35) | ||||
| NY-14 100% (36) | NY-15 100% (37) | NY-5 100% (38) | NY-7 100% (39) | NY-8 100% (40) | ||||
| NY-9 100% (41) | OH-11 100% (42) | PA-2 100% (43) | PA-3 100% (44) | RI-1 100% (45) | ||||
| TN-5 100% (46) | TN-9 100% (47) | TX-30 100% (48) | TX-9 100% (49) | TX-18 100% (50) | ||||
| CA-5 100% (51) | MO-1 100% (52) | NJ-8 100% (53) | GA-13 100% (54) | CA-15 100% (55) | ||||
| WA-9 100% (56) | CA-19 100% (57) | CA-6 100% (58) | CA-11 100% (59) | CA-2 100% (60) | ||||
| CA-51 100% (61) | SC-6 100% (62) | VA-8 Called (63) | WI-4 100% (64) | AZ-7 100% (65) | ||||
| TX-33 100% (66) | CA-30 100% (67) | NC-12 100% (68) | OR-3 100% (69) | CA-20 100% (70) | ||||
| CA-17 100% (71) | IL-5 100% (72) | VA-3 100% (73) | IL-1 100% (74) | CA-28 100% (75) | ||||
| VA-11 100% (76) | IL-8 100% (77) | OH-3 100% (78) | NY-16 100% (79) | MA-5 100% (80) | ||||
| MA-1 100% (81) | MS-2 100% (82) | CO-1 100% (83) | NY-6 100% (84) | TX-29 100% (85) | ||||
| CA-35 100% (86) | CA-32 100% (87) | HI-1 100% (88) | IL-9 100% (89) | MD-5 100% (90) | ||||
| MI-12 100% (91) | CA-33 100% (92) | WI-2 100% (93) | NC-4 100% (94) | CA-27 100% (95) | ||||
| TX-16 100% (96) | MD-8 100% (97) | MN-4 100% (98) | CA-46 100% (99) | NJ-12 100% (100) | ||||
| PA-5 100% (101) | NJ-9 100% (102) | MD-3 100% (103) | HI-2 100% (104) | NV-1 100% (105) | ||||
| TX-35 100% (106) | PA-18 100% (107) | MD-2 100% (108) | VA-4 100% (109) | AZ-3 100% (110) | ||||
| CA-47 100% (111) | FL-5 100% (112) | OH-9 100% (113) | WA-2 100% (114) | NJ-1 100% (115) | ||||
| IN-7 100% (116) | CT-1 100% (117) | FL-10 100% (118) | CA-41 100% (119) | IL-10 100% (120) | ||||
| FL-23 100% (121) | KY-3 100% (122) | VT-1 100% (123) | NY-26 100% (124) | NC-2 100% (125) | ||||
| TX-20 100% (126) | IL-11 100% (127) | OR-1 100% (128) | NC-6 100% (129) | CO-2 100% (130) | ||||
| WA-1 100% (131) | NY-25 100% (132) | MA-2 100% (133) | PA-4 100% (134) | CT-4 100% (135) | ||||
| NY-17 100% (136) | CT-3 100% (137) | FL-21 100% (138) | NY-20 100% (139) | CA-16 99% (140) | ||||
| RI-2 99% (141) | CA-52 99% (142) | NJ-6 99% (143) | TX-34 99% (144) | NC-1 99% (145) | ||||
| TX-28 99% (146) | CA-24 99% (147) | WA-6 99% (148) | CA-31 99% (149) | CA-26 99% (150) | ||||
| MD-6 99% (151) | MA-6 99% (152) | CA-9 99% (153) | MA-4 99% (154) | FL-14 99% (155) | ||||
| ME-1 99% (156) | DE-1 99% (157) | MO-5 99% (158) | MI-9 99% (159) | AZ-9 99% (160) | ||||
| NM-1 99% (161) | MI-5 99% (162) | OH-13 99% (163) | GA-2 99% (164) | IN-1 99% (165) | ||||
| TX-15 99% (166) | FL-22 99% (167) | NY-4 99% (168) | CA-3 99% (169) | MA-9 98% (170) | ||||
| CO-7 98% (171) | ME-2 98% (172) | FL-9 98% (173) | PA-6 98% (174) | MN-3 98% (175) | ||||
| CA-7 97% (176) | VA-10 97% (177) | NV-4 97% (178) | CA-49 97% (179) | CO-6 97% (180) | ||||
| WA-8 96% (181) | CT-2 96% (182) | CA-36 96% (183) | AZ-2 95% (184) | NM-3 95% (185) | ||||
| PA-7 95% (186) | CT-5 95% (187) | FL-13 95% (188) | OR-5 94% (189) | FL-7 94% (190) | ||||
| KS-3 93% (191) | OR-4 93% (192) | CA-10 92% (193) | AZ-1 92% (194) | NY-3 91% (195) | ||||
| NV-3 90% (196) | MI-11 90% (197) | VA-7 90% (198) | MI-8 89% (199) | IL-17 89% (200) | ||||
| NY-19 89% (201) | WI-3 89% (202) | IA-3 89% (203) | CA-45 89% (204) | NY-18 88% (205) | ||||
| MN-2 88% (206) | IA-1 88% (207) | NH-2 88% (208) | NH-1 88% (209) | PA-17 86% (210) | ||||
| IL-3 85% (211) | NJ-5 85% (212) | CA-48 84% (213) | IA-2 84% (214) | NJ-11 82% (215) | ||||
| TX-32 82% (216) | PA-8 81% (217) | FL-26 80% (218) | FL-27 79% (219) | VA-2 79% (220) | ||||
| CA-39 77% (221) | NJ-3 74% (222) | IL-14 74% (223) | NY-22 73% (224) | NJ-7 70% (225) | ||||
| CA-21 70% (226) | TX-7 69% (227) | TX-23 68% (228) | NM-2 66% (229) | NY-2 66% (230) | ||||
| IL-6 66% (231) | SC-1 64% (232) | NJ-2 64% (233) | GA-6 56% (234) | PA-10 56% (235) | ||||
| IN-5 55% (236) | UT-4 51% (237) | TX-24 51% (198) | CA-25 51% (197) | VA-5 52% (196) | ||||
| OK-5 54% (195) | MI-3 54% (194) | TX-22 56% (193) | IL-13 56% (192) | MI-6 57% (191) | ||||
| NY-11 58% (190) | AR-2 58% (189) | NY-24 58% (188) | NC-9 58% (187) | KY-6 59% (186) | ||||
| NC-8 59% (185) | NE-2 61% (184) | CO-3 61% (183) | GA-7 61% (182) | AZ-6 63% (181) | ||||
| AK-1 63% (180) | NC-11 63% (179) | MT-1 64% (178) | OH-1 65% (177) | MN-1 66% (176) | ||||
| NY-21 66% (175) | VA-1 66% (174) | WA-3 67% (173) | MO-2 70% (172) | FL-18 71% (171) | ||||
| TX-21 72% (170) | MN-8 72% (169) | MN-7 73% (168) | NY-1 74% (167) | KS-2 74% (166) | ||||
| MI-7 74% (165) | OH-10 75% (164) | WA-5 76% (163) | CA-8 77% (162) | PA-1 78% (161) | ||||
| OH-14 78% (160) | TX-3 78% (159) | TX-17 79% (158) | OH-12 79% (157) | TX-10 79% (156) | ||||
| TX-25 80% (155) | FL-15 80% (154) | CA-22 81% (153) | FL-16 82% (152) | CA-4 83% (151) | ||||
| NV-2 83% (150) | TX-6 83% (149) | FL-3 83% (148) | MI-1 84% (147) | OH-15 84% (146) | ||||
| IL-12 85% (145) | TX-31 85% (144) | CA-1 85% (143) | OR-2 85% (142) | PA-16 86% (141) | ||||
| WI-1 86% (140) | MI-2 87% (139) | NY-27 87% (138) | NY-23 87% (137) | IA-4 88% (136) | ||||
| MI-4 88% (135) | OH-16 89% (134) | CA-50 89% (133) | MI-10 90% (132) | OH-2 90% (131) | ||||
| NC-7 90% (130) | CA-42 90% (129) | NJ-4 90% (128) | SC-7 91% (127) | LA-5 91% (126) | ||||
| SC-5 91% (125) | WI-8 91% (124) | WI-6 92% (123) | IL-16 92% (122) | WI-7 92% (121) | ||||
| FL-6 93% (120) | UT-2 93% (119) | TX-2 93% (118) | VA-6 93% (117) | KS-4 94% (116) | ||||
| WI-5 94% (115) | SC-2 94% (114) | WA-4 94% (113) | FL-12 94% (112) | FL-19 94% (111) | ||||
| MS-3 95% (110) | AL-1 95% (109) | LA-4 95% (108) | NC-3 95% (107) | IN-2 95% (106) | ||||
| NE-1 95% (105) | GA-1 95% (104) | GA-12 95% (103) | AL-2 96% (102) | OH-5 96% (101) | ||||
| TX-14 97% (100) | MN-6 97% (99) | FL-8 97% (98) | AZ-5 97% (97) | AZ-8 97% (96) | ||||
| CO-4 97% (95) | IN-9 97% (94) | UT-1 97% (93) | OH-7 98% (92) | WV-2 98% (91) | ||||
| OK-1 98% (90) | CO-5 98% (89) | CA-23 98% (88) | PA-11 98% (87) | PA-14 98% (86) | ||||
| MS-1 98% (85) | UT-3 98% (84) | ID-2 99% (83) | AR-4 99% (82) | OH-4 99% (81) | ||||
| SC-4 99% (80) | FL-17 99% (79) | TX-27 99% (78) | IN-8 99% (77) | PA-9 99% (76) | ||||
| FL-4 99% (75) | AL-3 99% (74) | KY-4 99% (73) | MD-1 99% (72) | IL-18 99% (71) | ||||
| NC-5 99% (70) | WV-1 99% (69) | AR-3 99% (68) | IN-4 99% (67) | KY-2 99% (66) | ||||
| MO-6 99% (65) | ND-1 99% (64) | GA-10 99% (63) | IN-3 99% (62) | OH-6 99% (61) | ||||
| OK-4 99% (60) | NC-10 99% (59) | KS-1 99% (58) | FL-11 99% (57) | PA-12 99% (56) | ||||
| TX-26 99% (55) | TX-5 99% (54) | IN-6 100% (53) | NC-13 100% (52) | GA-8 100% (51) | ||||
| OH-8 100% (50) | TN-3 100% (49) | MO-4 100% (48) | LA-6 100% (47) | TN-8 100% (46) | ||||
| WV-3 100% (45) | IL-15 100% (44) | TX-12 100% (43) | PA-15 100% (42) | ID-1 100% (41) | ||||
| GA-11 100% (40) | MO-3 100% (39) | KY-1 100% (38) | SC-3 100% (37) | TN-7 100% (36) | ||||
| TN-4 100% (35) | GA-3 100% (34) | TN-2 100% (33) | AZ-4 100% (32) | WY-1 100% (31) | ||||
| OK-2 100% (30) | PA-13 100% (29) | FL-1 100% (28) | LA-3 100% (27) | TX-4 100% (26) | ||||
| LA-1 100% (25) | OK-3 100% (24) | TN-1 100% (23) | TN-6 100% (22) | MO-7 100% (21) | ||||
| MO-8 100% (20) | TX-1 100% (19) | TX-36 100% (18) | NE-3 100% (17) | TX-8 100% (16) | ||||
| KY-5 100% (15) | TX-19 100% (14) | SD-1 100% (13) | AL-4 100% (12) | FL-2 100% (11) | ||||
| GA-9 100% (10) | TX-11 100% (9) | VA-9 100% (8) | TX-13 100% (7) | AL-6 100% (6) | ||||
| AL-5 100% (5) | AR-1 100% (4) | FL-25 100% (3) | GA-14 100% (2) | MS-4 Called (1) |