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27/10: President: Biden 88% | Senate: Dem 74% | House: Dem 96%

Posted on October 28, 2020October 28, 2020 by data-art
Called / Solid Likely Ahead / Lean Too close / Toss-up Ahead / Lean Likely Called / Solid
President 210 278 290 85 163 122 80
Senate 43 47 51 3 46 42 38
House 188 221 233 18 184 164 110

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DemocratRepublican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
278
NE2
78%
279
-6.5
51/44
AZ
67%
290
-2.9
49/46
22.6%
FL
64%
319
-1.9
49/47
27.9%
NC
63%
334
-2.0
49/47
23.7%
ME2
54%
335
-2.9
47/44
34.7%
GA
52%
351
-1.1
48/47
39.2%
IA
51%
357
-1.7
48/46
35.6%
OH
58%
181
+1.7
46/48
34.5%
TX
68%
163
+1.4
47/48
37.5%
AK
82%
125
+4.4
46/50
Rep
>85%
122

All states:

State538
Prob
RatingCum.
EV
PollsDemRepUVN
       
District of Columbia100%Solid D3-75.786.310.6
Delaware100%Solid D6-24.858.934.1
New York100%Solid D35-30.862.431.6
Massachusetts100%Solid D46-37.265.928.7
Maryland100%Solid D56-32.362.830.5
Illinois100%Solid D76-18.256.438.2
Rhode Island100%Solid D80-24.360.836.5
Connecticut100%Solid D87-24.758.734.0
California100%Solid D142-31.362.230.9
Vermont99%Solid D145-31.862.130.3
Hawaii99%Solid D149-30.662.331.7
Washington99%Solid D161-27.861.533.7
Virginia99%Solid D174-12.752.940.2
New Jersey99%Solid D188-19.055.936.9
ME-198%Solid D189-26.959.632.7
Oregon98%Solid D196-19.357.037.7
New Mexico97%Solid D201-14.054.240.2
Colorado96%Solid D210-12.051.939.9
Michigan94%Likely D226-8.050.842.8
Minnesota94%Likely D236-9.251.141.9
Wisconsin94%Likely D246-9.052.443.4
Maine90%Likely D248-14.653.839.2
Nevada90%Likely D254-6.449.843.42.9%
New Hampshire88%Likely D258-11.253.742.5
Pennsylvania86%Likely D278-5.350.244.9
NE-278%Lean D279-6.550.544.0
Arizona67%Lean D290-2.948.845.922.6%
Florida64%Toss-up319-1.948.846.927.9%
North Carolina63%Toss-up334-2.049.147.123.7%
ME-254%Toss-up335-2.946.743.834.7%
Georgia52%Toss-up351-1.148.046.939.2%
Iowa51%Toss-up357-1.747.946.235.6%
Ohio58%Toss-up181+1.746.448.134.5%
Texas68%Lean R163+1.446.547.937.5%
Alaska82%Lean R125+4.445.750.1
Montana86%Likely R122+8.642.951.5
Mississippi91%Likely R119+12.140.953.0
South Carolina91%Likely R113+7.743.451.1
Missouri92%Likely R104+5.545.450.9
South Dakota94%Likely R94+19.438.357.7
Indiana94%Likely R91+11.641.152.7
NE-196%Solid R80+4.345.549.84.3%
Utah96%Solid R79+12.639.151.7
Louisiana96%Solid R73+13.839.953.7
Kansas96%Solid R65+6.743.350.00.0%
Tennessee97%Solid R59+13.441.154.5
Alabama98%Solid R48+17.938.856.7
North Dakota98%Solid R39+21.836.157.9
Arkansas99%Solid R36+15.640.155.7
Kentucky99%Solid R30+18.038.956.9
West Virginia99%Solid R22+25.635.561.1
Nebraska99%Solid R17+11.042.553.5
Oklahoma99%Solid R15+23.635.258.8
Idaho99%Solid R8+23.836.059.8
Wyoming100%Solid R4+38.629.067.6
NE-3100%Solid R1+46.025.971.9

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State
Prob
Seats
Dem
>85%
46
AZ
84%
47
NM
82%
48
ME
75%
49
GA2
73%
50
NC
72%
51
IA
58%
52
GA1
58%
48
MT
64%
47
KS
66%
46
AK
71%
45
SC
78%
44
MS
80%
43
Rep
>85%
42

All States:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
Seats
PollsDemRepUVN
D-cont100%D-called35    
MA100%Solid D36    
RI100%Solid D37    
NJ99%Solid D38    
DE99%Solid D39    
VA99%Solid D40    
IL99%Solid D41    
NH98%Solid D42    
OR97%Solid D43    
CO87%Likely D44    
MI87%Likely D45    
MN87%Likely D46    
AZ84%Likely D47    
NM82%Lean D48    
ME75%Lean D49    
GA273%Lean D50    
NC72%Lean D51    
IA58%Toss-up52    
GA158%Toss-up48    
MT64%Toss-up47    
KS66%Lean R46    
AK71%Lean R45    
SC78%Lean R44    
MS80%Lean R43    
TX87%Likely R42    
KY92%Likely R41    
AL93%Likely R40    
LA94%Likely R39    
WV96%Solid R38    
TN96%Solid R37    
OK97%Solid R36    
ID98%Solid R35    
SD98%Solid R34    
NE99%Solid R33    
WY99%Solid R32    
AR100%Solid R31    
R-cont100%R-called30    

House

Race classification and probabilities by 538. Majority 218.

“
Called /
Solid
LikelyAhead /
Lean
Too close /
Toss-Up
Ahead /
Lean
LikelyCalled /
Solid
188
seats
221
seats
233
seats
–
seats
184
seats
164
seats
110
seats
188
seats
33
seats
12
seats
18
seats
20
seats
54
seats
110
seats
”
WA-10 100% (1)   WA-7 100% (2)   AL-7 100% (3)   CA-12 100% (4)   CA-13 100% (5)
CA-14 100% (6)   CA-18 100% (7)   CA-29 100% (8)   CA-34 100% (9)   CA-37 100% (10)
CA-38 100% (11)   CA-40 100% (12)   CA-43 100% (13)   CA-44 100% (14)   CA-53 100% (15)
FL-20 100% (16)   FL-24 100% (17)   GA-4 100% (18)   GA-5 100% (19)   IL-2 100% (20)
IL-4 100% (21)   IL-7 100% (22)   LA-2 100% (23)   MA-3 100% (24)   MA-7 100% (25)
MA-8 100% (26)   MD-4 100% (27)   MD-7 100% (28)   MI-13 100% (29)   MI-14 100% (30)
MN-5 100% (31)   NJ-10 100% (32)   NY-10 100% (33)   NY-12 100% (34)   NY-13 100% (35)
NY-14 100% (36)   NY-15 100% (37)   NY-5 100% (38)   NY-7 100% (39)   NY-8 100% (40)
NY-9 100% (41)   OH-11 100% (42)   PA-2 100% (43)   PA-3 100% (44)   RI-1 100% (45)
TN-5 100% (46)   TN-9 100% (47)   TX-30 100% (48)   TX-9 100% (49)   TX-18 100% (50)
CA-5 100% (51)   MO-1 100% (52)   NJ-8 100% (53)   GA-13 100% (54)   CA-15 100% (55)
WA-9 100% (56)   CA-19 100% (57)   CA-6 100% (58)   CA-11 100% (59)   CA-2 100% (60)
CA-51 100% (61)   SC-6 100% (62)   VA-8 Called (63)   WI-4 100% (64)   AZ-7 100% (65)
TX-33 100% (66)   CA-30 100% (67)   NC-12 100% (68)   OR-3 100% (69)   CA-20 100% (70)
CA-17 100% (71)   IL-5 100% (72)   VA-3 100% (73)   IL-1 100% (74)   CA-28 100% (75)
VA-11 100% (76)   IL-8 100% (77)   OH-3 100% (78)   NY-16 100% (79)   MA-5 100% (80)
MA-1 100% (81)   MS-2 100% (82)   CO-1 100% (83)   NY-6 100% (84)   TX-29 100% (85)
CA-35 100% (86)   CA-32 100% (87)   HI-1 100% (88)   IL-9 100% (89)   MD-5 100% (90)
MI-12 100% (91)   CA-33 100% (92)   WI-2 100% (93)   NC-4 100% (94)   CA-27 100% (95)
TX-16 100% (96)   MD-8 100% (97)   MN-4 100% (98)   CA-46 100% (99)   NJ-12 100% (100)
PA-5 100% (101)   NJ-9 100% (102)   MD-3 100% (103)   HI-2 100% (104)   NV-1 100% (105)
TX-35 100% (106)   PA-18 100% (107)   MD-2 100% (108)   VA-4 100% (109)   AZ-3 100% (110)
CA-47 100% (111)   FL-5 100% (112)   OH-9 100% (113)   WA-2 100% (114)   NJ-1 100% (115)
IN-7 100% (116)   CT-1 100% (117)   FL-10 100% (118)   CA-41 100% (119)   IL-10 100% (120)
FL-23 100% (121)   KY-3 100% (122)   VT-1 100% (123)   NY-26 100% (124)   NC-2 100% (125)
TX-20 100% (126)   IL-11 100% (127)   OR-1 100% (128)   NC-6 100% (129)   CO-2 100% (130)
WA-1 100% (131)   NY-25 100% (132)   MA-2 100% (133)   PA-4 100% (134)   CT-4 100% (135)
NY-17 100% (136)   CT-3 100% (137)   FL-21 100% (138)   NY-20 100% (139)   CA-16 99% (140)
RI-2 99% (141)   CA-52 99% (142)   NJ-6 99% (143)   TX-34 99% (144)   NC-1 99% (145)
TX-28 99% (146)   CA-24 99% (147)   WA-6 99% (148)   CA-31 99% (149)   CA-26 99% (150)
MD-6 99% (151)   MA-6 99% (152)   CA-9 99% (153)   MA-4 99% (154)   FL-14 99% (155)
ME-1 99% (156)   DE-1 99% (157)   MO-5 99% (158)   MI-9 99% (159)   AZ-9 99% (160)
NM-1 99% (161)   MI-5 99% (162)   OH-13 99% (163)   GA-2 99% (164)   IN-1 99% (165)
TX-15 99% (166)   FL-22 99% (167)   NY-4 99% (168)   CA-3 99% (169)   MA-9 98% (170)
CO-7 98% (171)   ME-2 98% (172)   FL-9 98% (173)   PA-6 98% (174)   MN-3 98% (175)
CA-7 97% (176)   VA-10 97% (177)   NV-4 97% (178)   CA-49 97% (179)   CO-6 97% (180)
WA-8 96% (181)   CT-2 96% (182)   CA-36 96% (183)   AZ-2 95% (184)   NM-3 95% (185)
PA-7 95% (186)   CT-5 95% (187)   FL-13 95% (188)   OR-5 94% (189)   FL-7 94% (190)
KS-3 93% (191)   OR-4 93% (192)   CA-10 92% (193)   AZ-1 92% (194)   NY-3 91% (195)
NV-3 90% (196)   MI-11 90% (197)   VA-7 90% (198)   MI-8 89% (199)   IL-17 89% (200)
NY-19 89% (201)   WI-3 89% (202)   IA-3 89% (203)   CA-45 89% (204)   NY-18 88% (205)
MN-2 88% (206)   IA-1 88% (207)   NH-2 88% (208)   NH-1 88% (209)   PA-17 86% (210)
IL-3 85% (211)   NJ-5 85% (212)   CA-48 84% (213)   IA-2 84% (214)   NJ-11 82% (215)
TX-32 82% (216)   PA-8 81% (217)   FL-26 80% (218)   FL-27 79% (219)   VA-2 79% (220)
CA-39 77% (221)   NJ-3 74% (222)   IL-14 74% (223)   NY-22 73% (224)   NJ-7 70% (225)
CA-21 70% (226)   TX-7 69% (227)   TX-23 68% (228)   NM-2 66% (229)   NY-2 66% (230)
IL-6 66% (231)   SC-1 64% (232)   NJ-2 64% (233)   GA-6 56% (234)   PA-10 56% (235)
IN-5 55% (236)   UT-4 51% (237)   TX-24 51% (198)   CA-25 51% (197)   VA-5 52% (196)
OK-5 54% (195)   MI-3 54% (194)   TX-22 56% (193)   IL-13 56% (192)   MI-6 57% (191)
NY-11 58% (190)   AR-2 58% (189)   NY-24 58% (188)   NC-9 58% (187)   KY-6 59% (186)
NC-8 59% (185)   NE-2 61% (184)   CO-3 61% (183)   GA-7 61% (182)   AZ-6 63% (181)
AK-1 63% (180)   NC-11 63% (179)   MT-1 64% (178)   OH-1 65% (177)   MN-1 66% (176)
NY-21 66% (175)   VA-1 66% (174)   WA-3 67% (173)   MO-2 70% (172)   FL-18 71% (171)
TX-21 72% (170)   MN-8 72% (169)   MN-7 73% (168)   NY-1 74% (167)   KS-2 74% (166)
MI-7 74% (165)   OH-10 75% (164)   WA-5 76% (163)   CA-8 77% (162)   PA-1 78% (161)
OH-14 78% (160)   TX-3 78% (159)   TX-17 79% (158)   OH-12 79% (157)   TX-10 79% (156)
TX-25 80% (155)   FL-15 80% (154)   CA-22 81% (153)   FL-16 82% (152)   CA-4 83% (151)
NV-2 83% (150)   TX-6 83% (149)   FL-3 83% (148)   MI-1 84% (147)   OH-15 84% (146)
IL-12 85% (145)   TX-31 85% (144)   CA-1 85% (143)   OR-2 85% (142)   PA-16 86% (141)
WI-1 86% (140)   MI-2 87% (139)   NY-27 87% (138)   NY-23 87% (137)   IA-4 88% (136)
MI-4 88% (135)   OH-16 89% (134)   CA-50 89% (133)   MI-10 90% (132)   OH-2 90% (131)
NC-7 90% (130)   CA-42 90% (129)   NJ-4 90% (128)   SC-7 91% (127)   LA-5 91% (126)
SC-5 91% (125)   WI-8 91% (124)   WI-6 92% (123)   IL-16 92% (122)   WI-7 92% (121)
FL-6 93% (120)   UT-2 93% (119)   TX-2 93% (118)   VA-6 93% (117)   KS-4 94% (116)
WI-5 94% (115)   SC-2 94% (114)   WA-4 94% (113)   FL-12 94% (112)   FL-19 94% (111)
MS-3 95% (110)   AL-1 95% (109)   LA-4 95% (108)   NC-3 95% (107)   IN-2 95% (106)
NE-1 95% (105)   GA-1 95% (104)   GA-12 95% (103)   AL-2 96% (102)   OH-5 96% (101)
TX-14 97% (100)   MN-6 97% (99)   FL-8 97% (98)   AZ-5 97% (97)   AZ-8 97% (96)
CO-4 97% (95)   IN-9 97% (94)   UT-1 97% (93)   OH-7 98% (92)   WV-2 98% (91)
OK-1 98% (90)   CO-5 98% (89)   CA-23 98% (88)   PA-11 98% (87)   PA-14 98% (86)
MS-1 98% (85)   UT-3 98% (84)   ID-2 99% (83)   AR-4 99% (82)   OH-4 99% (81)
SC-4 99% (80)   FL-17 99% (79)   TX-27 99% (78)   IN-8 99% (77)   PA-9 99% (76)
FL-4 99% (75)   AL-3 99% (74)   KY-4 99% (73)   MD-1 99% (72)   IL-18 99% (71)
NC-5 99% (70)   WV-1 99% (69)   AR-3 99% (68)   IN-4 99% (67)   KY-2 99% (66)
MO-6 99% (65)   ND-1 99% (64)   GA-10 99% (63)   IN-3 99% (62)   OH-6 99% (61)
OK-4 99% (60)   NC-10 99% (59)   KS-1 99% (58)   FL-11 99% (57)   PA-12 99% (56)
TX-26 99% (55)   TX-5 99% (54)   IN-6 100% (53)   NC-13 100% (52)   GA-8 100% (51)
OH-8 100% (50)   TN-3 100% (49)   MO-4 100% (48)   LA-6 100% (47)   TN-8 100% (46)
WV-3 100% (45)   IL-15 100% (44)   TX-12 100% (43)   PA-15 100% (42)   ID-1 100% (41)
GA-11 100% (40)   MO-3 100% (39)   KY-1 100% (38)   SC-3 100% (37)   TN-7 100% (36)
TN-4 100% (35)   GA-3 100% (34)   TN-2 100% (33)   AZ-4 100% (32)   WY-1 100% (31)
OK-2 100% (30)   PA-13 100% (29)   FL-1 100% (28)   LA-3 100% (27)   TX-4 100% (26)
LA-1 100% (25)   OK-3 100% (24)   TN-1 100% (23)   TN-6 100% (22)   MO-7 100% (21)
MO-8 100% (20)   TX-1 100% (19)   TX-36 100% (18)   NE-3 100% (17)   TX-8 100% (16)
KY-5 100% (15)   TX-19 100% (14)   SD-1 100% (13)   AL-4 100% (12)   FL-2 100% (11)
GA-9 100% (10)   TX-11 100% (9)   VA-9 100% (8)   TX-13 100% (7)   AL-6 100% (6)
AL-5 100% (5)   AR-1 100% (4)   FL-25 100% (3)   GA-14 100% (2)   MS-4 Called (1)

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