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21/10: President: Biden 87% | Senate: Dem 74% | House: Dem 96%

Posted on October 22, 2020October 22, 2020 by data-art
Called / Solid Likely Ahead / Lean Too close / Toss-up Ahead / Lean Likely Called / Solid
President 210 278 334 41 163 122 86
Senate 43 47 51 4 45 42 37
House 187 222 233 19 183 164 110

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DemocratRepublican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
268
WI
85%
278
-6.3
50/44
NE2
78%
279
-7.1
50/43
FL
71%
308
-3.6
49/46
16.7%
AZ
68%
319
-3.8
49/45
17.2%
NC
67%
334
-3.1
49/46
15.6%
ME2
51%
335
-2.3
47/45
35.1%
GA
51%
203
-1.0
48/47
58.3%
IA
52%
187
-1.1
48/46
59.0%
OH
56%
181
+1.0
46/47
41.9%
TX
67%
163
+0.9
47/48
40.8%
AK
80%
125
+4.4
46/50
Rep
>85%
122

All states:

State538
Prob
RatingCum.
EV
PollsDemRepUVN
       
District of Columbia100%Solid D3-75.786.310.6
Delaware100%Solid D6-24.858.934.1
New York100%Solid D35-30.862.431.6
Maryland100%Solid D45-32.362.830.5
Illinois100%Solid D65-18.256.438.2
Massachusetts100%Solid D76-37.265.928.7
Rhode Island100%Solid D80-24.360.836.5
California100%Solid D135-31.362.230.9
Connecticut100%Solid D142-24.758.734.0
Vermont99%Solid D145-31.862.130.3
Washington99%Solid D157-27.861.533.7
Hawaii99%Solid D161-30.662.331.7
Virginia99%Solid D174-12.752.940.2
New Jersey99%Solid D188-19.055.936.9
ME-198%Solid D189-26.959.632.7
Oregon97%Solid D196-19.357.037.7
New Mexico97%Solid D201-14.054.240.2
Colorado95%Solid D210-12.051.939.9
Michigan92%Likely D226-8.050.742.7
Minnesota91%Likely D236-8.050.242.2
Nevada90%Likely D242-6.550.043.50.0%
Maine90%Likely D244-14.454.039.6
New Hampshire87%Likely D248-11.553.742.2
Pennsylvania86%Likely D268-6.250.444.2
Wisconsin85%Likely D278-6.350.344.0
NE-278%Lean D279-7.150.443.3
Florida71%Lean D308-3.649.145.516.7%
Arizona68%Lean D319-3.849.045.217.2%
North Carolina67%Lean D334-3.149.346.215.6%
ME-251%Toss-up335-2.347.345.035.1%
Georgia51%Toss-up203-1.047.546.558.3%
Iowa52%Toss-up187-1.147.546.459.0%
Ohio56%Toss-up181+1.046.447.441.9%
Texas67%Lean R163+0.947.148.040.8%
Alaska80%Lean R125+4.445.750.1
Mississippi89%Likely R122+12.140.953.0
Montana90%Likely R116+8.642.951.5
South Carolina90%Likely R113+7.643.250.8
Missouri92%Likely R104+5.545.450.9
Louisiana94%Likely R94+13.839.953.7
Indiana95%Solid R86+11.641.152.7
NE-195%Solid R75+4.345.549.84.3%
Utah96%Solid R74+12.639.151.7
Kansas96%Solid R68+6.743.350.00.0%
South Dakota96%Solid R62+19.438.357.7
Tennessee97%Solid R59+13.441.154.5
Alabama98%Solid R48+17.938.856.7
Arkansas98%Solid R39+15.640.155.7
Kentucky99%Solid R33+18.038.956.9
North Dakota99%Solid R25+21.836.157.9
West Virginia99%Solid R22+25.635.561.1
Nebraska99%Solid R17+11.042.553.5
Oklahoma99%Solid R15+23.635.258.8
Idaho99%Solid R8+23.836.059.8
Wyoming100%Solid R4+38.629.067.6
NE-3100%Solid R1+46.025.971.9

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State
Prob
Seats
Dem
>85%
46
MI
84%
47
NM
82%
48
ME
77%
49
NC
76%
50
GA2
69%
51
IA
58%
52
GA1
62%
48
MT
63%
47
KS
63%
46
AK
70%
45
MS
71%
44
SC
76%
43
TX
84%
42
Rep
>85%
41

All States:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
Seats
PollsDemRepUVN
D-cont100%D-called35    
MA100%Solid D36    
RI100%Solid D37    
NJ99%Solid D38    
DE99%Solid D39    
IL99%Solid D40    
NH97%Solid D41    
VA96%Solid D42    
OR96%Solid D43    
MN88%Likely D44    
CO87%Likely D45    
AZ87%Likely D46    
MI84%Likely D47    
NM82%Lean D48    
ME77%Lean D49    
NC76%Lean D50    
GA269%Lean D51    
IA58%Toss-up52    
GA162%Toss-up48    
MT63%Toss-up47    
KS63%Toss-up46    
AK70%Lean R45    
MS71%Lean R44    
SC76%Lean R43    
TX84%Likely R42    
TN89%Likely R41    
AL91%Likely R40    
KY93%Likely R39    
LA93%Likely R38    
NE95%Solid R37    
WV95%Solid R36    
OK97%Solid R35    
SD97%Solid R34    
ID97%Solid R33    
WY99%Solid R32    
AR100%Solid R31    
R-cont100%R-called30    

House

Race classification and probabilities by 538. Majority 218.

“
Called /
Solid
LikelyAhead /
Lean
Too close /
Toss-Up
Ahead /
Lean
LikelyCalled /
Solid
187
seats
222
seats
233
seats
–
seats
183
seats
164
seats
110
seats
187
seats
35
seats
11
seats
19
seats
19
seats
54
seats
110
seats
”
WA-10 100% (1)   WA-7 100% (2)   AL-7 100% (3)   CA-12 100% (4)   CA-13 100% (5)
CA-14 100% (6)   CA-18 100% (7)   CA-29 100% (8)   CA-34 100% (9)   CA-37 100% (10)
CA-38 100% (11)   CA-40 100% (12)   CA-43 100% (13)   CA-44 100% (14)   CA-53 100% (15)
FL-20 100% (16)   FL-24 100% (17)   GA-4 100% (18)   GA-5 100% (19)   IL-1 100% (20)
IL-2 100% (21)   IL-4 100% (22)   IL-7 100% (23)   LA-2 100% (24)   MA-3 100% (25)
MA-7 100% (26)   MA-8 100% (27)   MD-4 100% (28)   MD-7 100% (29)   MI-13 100% (30)
MI-14 100% (31)   MN-5 100% (32)   NJ-10 100% (33)   NY-10 100% (34)   NY-12 100% (35)
NY-13 100% (36)   NY-14 100% (37)   NY-15 100% (38)   NY-5 100% (39)   NY-7 100% (40)
NY-8 100% (41)   NY-9 100% (42)   OH-11 100% (43)   PA-2 100% (44)   PA-3 100% (45)
RI-1 100% (46)   TN-5 100% (47)   TN-9 100% (48)   TX-30 100% (49)   TX-9 100% (50)
WI-4 100% (51)   TX-18 100% (52)   CA-28 100% (53)   CA-5 100% (54)   AZ-7 100% (55)
TX-33 100% (56)   CA-30 100% (57)   MA-5 100% (58)   NC-12 100% (59)   MO-1 100% (60)
VA-8 Called (61)   NJ-8 100% (62)   OR-3 100% (63)   GA-13 100% (64)   CA-15 100% (65)
CA-20 100% (66)   CA-17 100% (67)   WA-9 100% (68)   CA-19 100% (69)   IL-5 100% (70)
CO-1 100% (71)   CA-6 100% (72)   CA-11 100% (73)   CA-2 100% (74)   CA-51 100% (75)
VA-11 100% (76)   MA-1 100% (77)   CA-33 100% (78)   TX-29 100% (79)   VA-3 100% (80)
IL-9 100% (81)   NY-6 100% (82)   IL-8 100% (83)   NC-4 100% (84)   OH-3 100% (85)
SC-6 100% (86)   NY-16 100% (87)   CA-35 100% (88)   MS-2 100% (89)   MD-5 100% (90)
WI-2 100% (91)   TX-16 100% (92)   CA-27 100% (93)   CA-32 100% (94)   MN-4 100% (95)
MI-12 100% (96)   HI-2 100% (97)   NJ-12 100% (98)   HI-1 100% (99)   MD-8 100% (100)
NV-1 100% (101)   NJ-9 100% (102)   PA-5 100% (103)   CA-46 100% (104)   MD-3 100% (105)
PA-18 100% (106)   VA-4 100% (107)   CA-47 100% (108)   OH-9 100% (109)   TX-35 100% (110)
FL-5 100% (111)   MD-2 100% (112)   AZ-3 100% (113)   NJ-1 100% (114)   IN-7 100% (115)
WA-2 100% (116)   FL-23 100% (117)   IL-10 100% (118)   NY-26 100% (119)   CA-41 100% (120)
FL-10 100% (121)   CT-1 100% (122)   KY-3 100% (123)   TX-20 100% (124)   NC-2 100% (125)
VT-1 100% (126)   OR-1 100% (127)   IL-11 100% (128)   CO-2 100% (129)   NC-6 100% (130)
PA-4 100% (131)   MA-2 100% (132)   NY-25 100% (133)   CT-4 100% (134)   WA-1 100% (135)
CT-3 100% (136)   CA-16 100% (137)   CA-52 100% (138)   NJ-6 100% (139)   FL-21 100% (140)
NY-17 99% (141)   RI-2 99% (142)   NY-20 99% (143)   CA-31 99% (144)   WA-6 99% (145)
CA-9 99% (146)   TX-34 99% (147)   CA-24 99% (148)   CA-26 99% (149)   MA-4 99% (150)
NC-1 99% (151)   MD-6 99% (152)   TX-28 99% (153)   FL-14 99% (154)   MA-6 99% (155)
DE-1 99% (156)   MO-5 99% (157)   AZ-9 99% (158)   MI-9 99% (159)   MI-5 99% (160)
OH-13 99% (161)   NY-4 99% (162)   NM-1 99% (163)   IN-1 99% (164)   TX-15 99% (165)
FL-22 99% (166)   GA-2 99% (167)   ME-1 99% (168)   CA-3 99% (169)   CO-7 99% (170)
FL-9 98% (171)   MA-9 98% (172)   CA-7 98% (173)   PA-6 98% (174)   MN-3 98% (175)
ME-2 98% (176)   VA-10 97% (177)   CA-49 97% (178)   CO-6 97% (179)   NV-4 97% (180)
WA-8 96% (181)   CT-2 96% (182)   CA-36 96% (183)   AZ-2 96% (184)   NM-3 95% (185)
CT-5 95% (186)   OR-5 95% (187)   FL-13 94% (188)   FL-7 94% (189)   PA-7 94% (190)
KS-3 93% (191)   OR-4 93% (192)   CA-10 92% (193)   NY-3 91% (194)   AZ-1 91% (195)
NV-3 91% (196)   MI-11 91% (197)   CA-45 90% (198)   VA-7 90% (199)   MI-8 89% (200)
NY-19 89% (201)   IL-17 89% (202)   NY-18 89% (203)   MN-2 88% (204)   NH-2 88% (205)
WI-3 88% (206)   NH-1 87% (207)   NJ-5 86% (208)   IL-3 86% (209)   CA-48 86% (210)
PA-17 86% (211)   NJ-11 84% (212)   NY-11 83% (213)   IA-3 83% (214)   IA-1 82% (215)
TX-32 82% (216)   PA-8 81% (217)   FL-26 80% (218)   FL-27 79% (219)   VA-2 78% (220)
CA-39 77% (221)   NJ-3 75% (222)   IL-14 74% (223)   NY-22 73% (224)   NJ-7 71% (225)
NY-2 71% (226)   CA-21 70% (227)   TX-7 69% (228)   TX-23 67% (229)   IL-6 67% (230)
NM-2 66% (231)   SC-1 64% (232)   NJ-2 64% (233)   IA-2 57% (234)   GA-6 57% (235)
PA-10 56% (236)   IN-5 55% (237)   OK-5 53% (238)   VA-5 53% (239)   UT-4 51% (240)
TX-24 50% (195)   CA-25 51% (194)   MT-1 51% (193)   NY-24 55% (192)   TX-22 56% (191)
IL-13 57% (190)   MI-6 57% (189)   AR-2 59% (188)   NC-9 59% (187)   NC-8 59% (186)
KY-6 59% (185)   CO-3 59% (184)   NE-2 61% (183)   GA-7 61% (182)   MI-3 61% (181)
WA-3 63% (180)   AK-1 63% (179)   AZ-6 63% (178)   NC-11 63% (177)   OH-1 64% (176)
MN-1 66% (175)   CA-50 67% (174)   NY-21 68% (173)   VA-1 68% (172)   MO-2 69% (171)
FL-18 71% (170)   MN-7 73% (169)   NY-1 74% (168)   KS-2 74% (167)   TX-21 74% (166)
MN-8 74% (165)   OH-10 75% (164)   CA-8 76% (163)   MI-7 76% (162)   WA-5 76% (161)
PA-1 78% (160)   OH-14 78% (159)   TX-10 79% (158)   TX-17 79% (157)   TX-25 80% (156)
FL-15 81% (155)   CA-22 81% (154)   FL-16 83% (153)   TX-6 83% (152)   CA-4 83% (151)
OH-12 83% (150)   FL-3 83% (149)   TX-3 83% (148)   NV-2 84% (147)   OR-2 84% (146)
MI-1 84% (145)   TX-31 85% (144)   CA-1 85% (143)   IL-12 85% (142)   OH-15 86% (141)
PA-16 86% (140)   WI-1 86% (139)   NY-27 86% (138)   MI-2 87% (137)   NY-23 88% (136)
OH-16 89% (135)   NJ-4 89% (134)   MI-4 89% (133)   CA-42 89% (132)   MI-10 89% (131)
NC-7 90% (130)   OH-2 90% (129)   LA-5 90% (128)   SC-7 91% (127)   SC-5 92% (126)
WI-8 92% (125)   IL-16 92% (124)   WI-6 93% (123)   WI-7 93% (122)   TX-2 93% (121)
UT-2 93% (120)   FL-6 93% (119)   WI-5 93% (118)   KS-4 94% (117)   FL-19 94% (116)
VA-6 94% (115)   WA-4 94% (114)   FL-12 94% (113)   AL-1 94% (112)   SC-2 94% (111)
IA-4 95% (110)   LA-4 95% (109)   NC-3 95% (108)   MS-3 95% (107)   IN-2 95% (106)
NE-1 95% (105)   AL-2 95% (104)   GA-1 95% (103)   GA-12 96% (102)   OH-5 96% (101)
TX-14 97% (100)   AZ-8 97% (99)   MN-6 97% (98)   FL-8 97% (97)   AZ-5 97% (96)
CO-4 97% (95)   UT-1 97% (94)   IN-9 98% (93)   OH-7 98% (92)   CO-5 98% (91)
OK-1 98% (90)   WV-2 98% (89)   CA-23 98% (88)   UT-3 98% (87)   MS-1 98% (86)
PA-11 98% (85)   PA-14 98% (84)   TX-27 99% (83)   ID-2 99% (82)   AR-4 99% (81)
FL-17 99% (80)   SC-4 99% (79)   OH-4 99% (78)   IN-8 99% (77)   FL-4 99% (76)
PA-9 99% (75)   AL-3 99% (74)   MD-1 99% (73)   WV-1 99% (72)   NC-5 99% (71)
KY-4 99% (70)   AR-3 99% (69)   IL-18 99% (68)   IN-4 99% (67)   KY-2 99% (66)
OK-4 99% (65)   MO-6 99% (64)   GA-10 99% (63)   ND-1 99% (62)   NC-10 99% (61)
TX-26 99% (60)   IN-3 99% (59)   OH-6 99% (58)   FL-11 99% (57)   KS-1 99% (56)
IN-6 99% (55)   NC-13 99% (54)   TX-5 99% (53)   PA-12 100% (52)   TN-3 100% (51)
GA-8 100% (50)   LA-6 100% (49)   TN-8 100% (48)   OH-8 100% (47)   MO-4 100% (46)
GA-11 100% (45)   ID-1 100% (44)   WV-3 100% (43)   TX-12 100% (42)   IL-15 100% (41)
SC-3 100% (40)   PA-15 100% (39)   TN-7 100% (38)   TN-2 100% (37)   MO-3 100% (36)
TN-4 100% (35)   AZ-4 100% (34)   KY-1 100% (33)   GA-3 100% (32)   OK-2 100% (31)
WY-1 100% (30)   PA-13 100% (29)   LA-3 100% (28)   LA-1 100% (27)   TN-1 100% (26)
MO-7 100% (25)   TN-6 100% (24)   TX-4 100% (23)   OK-3 100% (22)   MO-8 100% (21)
FL-1 100% (20)   TX-1 100% (19)   TX-36 100% (18)   KY-5 100% (17)   NE-3 100% (16)
GA-9 100% (15)   TX-13 100% (14)   TX-11 100% (13)   TX-19 100% (12)   TX-8 100% (11)
VA-9 100% (10)   SD-1 100% (9)   AL-6 100% (8)   FL-2 100% (7)   AL-4 100% (6)
AL-5 100% (5)   AR-1 100% (4)   FL-25 100% (3)   GA-14 100% (2)   MS-4 Called (1)

Recent Posts

  • With results: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%
  • Final: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%
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