Final: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%

	Called / Solid	Likely	Ahead / Lean	Too close / Toss-up	Ahead / Lean	Likely	Called / Solid
President	236	278	319	94	125	122	94
Senate	43	47	51	3	46	42	38
House	187	220	231	20	184	164	112

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Democrat

Republican

President

Polling number have not yet been updated.

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State Prob EV Polls ..D/R UVN

Dem >85% 258

PA 84% 278 -4.6 50/46

NE2 72% 279 -3.8 50/46 0.0%

FL 69% 308 -2.5 49/47 20.9%

AZ 68% 319 -2.6 49/46 25.0%

NC 64% 334 -1.8 49/47 27.5%

GA 58% 350 -1.1 49/47 36.6%

ME2 57% 351 -2.8 49/46 19.6%

OH 55% 187 +0.7 47/48 43.9%

IA 60% 169 +1.3 46/48 39.3%

TX 62% 163 +1.2 47/49 35.0%

MT 82% 125 +4.4 45/50 4.2%

AK 85% 122 +7.6 44/51

Rep >85% 119

All states:

State

538 Prob

Rating

Cum. EV

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN

District of Columbia	100%	Solid D	3	-85.0	90.8	5.8
Delaware	100%	Solid D	6	-24.3	58.9	34.6
New York	100%	Solid D	35	-29.4	62.3	32.9
Maryland	100%	Solid D	45	-31.5	63.1	31.6
Massachusetts	100%	Solid D	56	-35.7	64.6	28.9
Illinois	100%	Solid D	76	-16.0	55.0	39.0
Connecticut	100%	Solid D	83	-26.2	58.6	32.4
Rhode Island	100%	Solid D	87	-30.5	62.9	32.4
California	100%	Solid D	142	-29.2	61.6	32.4
Vermont	100%	Solid D	145	-38.7	66.5	27.8
Hawaii	99%	Solid D	149	-34.3	64.3	30.0
New Jersey	99%	Solid D	163	-20.5	58.4	37.9
Washington	99%	Solid D	175	-23.0	59.4	36.4
Virginia	99%	Solid D	188	-11.8	53.7	41.9
Oregon	98%	Solid D	195	-21.3	58.7	37.4
New Mexico	98%	Solid D	200	-11.8	53.9	42.1
ME-1	97%	Solid D	201	-20.5	57.6	37.1
Colorado	97%	Solid D	210	-12.5	53.6	41.1
Minnesota	96%	Solid D	220	-9.1	51.8	42.7
Michigan	95%	Solid D	236	-8.0	51.2	43.2
Wisconsin	94%	Likely D	246	-8.4	52.1	43.7
Maine	90%	Likely D	248	-13.0	53.3	40.3
New Hampshire	89%	Likely D	252	-11.1	53.9	42.8
Nevada	88%	Likely D	258	-5.3	49.7	44.4	5.1%
Pennsylvania	84%	Likely D	278	-4.6	50.2	45.6
NE-2	72%	Lean D	279	-3.8	50.0	46.2	0.0%
Florida	69%	Lean D	308	-2.5	49.1	46.6	20.9%
Arizona	68%	Lean D	319	-2.6	48.7	46.1	25.0%
North Carolina	64%	Toss-up	334	-1.8	48.9	47.1	27.5%
Georgia	58%	Toss-up	350	-1.1	48.5	47.4	36.6%
ME-2	57%	Toss-up	351	-2.8	49.1	46.3	19.6%
Ohio	55%	Toss-up	187	+0.7	46.8	47.5	43.9%
Iowa	60%	Toss-up	169	+1.3	46.3	47.6	39.3%
Texas	62%	Toss-up	163	+1.2	47.4	48.6	35.0%
Montana	82%	Lean R	125	+4.4	45.4	49.8	4.2%
Alaska	85%	Likely R	122	+7.6	43.6	51.2
South Carolina	90%	Likely R	119	+7.1	44.5	51.6
Mississippi	92%	Likely R	110	+15.9	39.6	55.5
Missouri	94%	Likely R	104	+8.0	43.6	51.6
South Dakota	95%	Solid R	94	+15.5	39.0	54.5
Utah	95%	Solid R	91	+9.8	42.1	51.9
NE-1	96%	Solid R	85	+5.0	45.8	50.8
Indiana	96%	Solid R	84	+10.9	42.0	52.9
Tennessee	97%	Solid R	73	+13.7	41.4	55.1
Louisiana	97%	Solid R	62	+20.5	37.1	57.6
North Dakota	98%	Solid R	54	+17.3	38.7	56.0
Alabama	98%	Solid R	51	+19.6	37.8	57.4
Kansas	99%	Solid R	42	+12.9	41.0	53.9
Kentucky	99%	Solid R	36	+15.7	39.9	55.6
Arkansas	99%	Solid R	28	+22.7	36.2	58.9
West Virginia	99%	Solid R	22	+28.6	33.5	62.1
Oklahoma	99%	Solid R	17	+23.0	36.2	59.2
Nebraska	99%	Solid R	10	+9.6	42.5	52.1
Idaho	99%	Solid R	8	+18.1	38.5	56.6
Wyoming	100%	Solid R	4	+31.5	30.8	62.3
NE-3	100%	Solid R	1	+47.1	25.4	72.5

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State Prob Seats

Dem >85% 46

AZ 84% 47

NM 83% 48

GA2 78% 49

NC 74% 50

ME 70% 51

IA 50% 52

GA1 51% 48

MT 64% 47

AK 70% 46

SC 73% 45

KS 74% 44

MS 79% 43

TX 84% 42

Rep >85% 41

All States:

State

538 Prob

Cook Political

Cum. Seats

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN

D-cont	100%	D-called	35
MA	100%	Solid D	36
IL	100%	Solid D	37
RI	100%	Solid D	38
NJ	100%	Solid D	39
DE	99%	Solid D	40
VA	99%	Solid D	41
NH	98%	Solid D	42
OR	97%	Solid D	43
MN	91%	Likely D	44
MI	91%	Likely D	45
CO	87%	Likely D	46
AZ	84%	Likely D	47
NM	83%	Lean D	48
GA2	78%	Lean D	49
NC	74%	Lean D	50
ME	70%	Lean D	51
IA	50%	Toss-up	52
GA1	51%	Toss-up	48
MT	64%	Toss-up	47
AK	70%	Lean R	46
SC	73%	Lean R	45
KS	74%	Lean R	44
MS	79%	Lean R	43
TX	84%	Likely R	42
KY	91%	Likely R	41
LA	93%	Likely R	40
SD	94%	Likely R	39
AL	96%	Solid R	38
WV	96%	Solid R	37
OK	98%	Solid R	36
ID	98%	Solid R	35
TN	98%	Solid R	34
NE	99%	Solid R	33
WY	99%	Solid R	32
AR	100%	Solid R	31
R-cont	100%	R-called	30

House

Race classification and probabilities by 538. Majority 218.

“

Called / Solid	Likely	Ahead / Lean	Too close / Toss-Up	Ahead / Lean	Likely	Called / Solid
187 seats	220 seats	231 seats	– seats	184 seats	164 seats	112 seats
187 seats	33 seats	11 seats	20 seats	20 seats	52 seats	112 seats

”

WA-10 100% (1)		WA-7 100% (2)		AL-7 100% (3)		CA-12 100% (4)		CA-13 100% (5)
CA-14 100% (6)		CA-18 100% (7)		CA-29 100% (8)		CA-34 100% (9)		CA-37 100% (10)
CA-38 100% (11)		CA-40 100% (12)		CA-43 100% (13)		CA-44 100% (14)		CA-53 100% (15)
FL-20 100% (16)		FL-24 100% (17)		GA-4 100% (18)		GA-5 100% (19)		IL-2 100% (20)
IL-4 100% (21)		IL-7 100% (22)		LA-2 100% (23)		MA-3 100% (24)		MA-7 100% (25)
MA-8 100% (26)		MD-4 100% (27)		MD-7 100% (28)		MI-13 100% (29)		MI-14 100% (30)
MN-5 100% (31)		NJ-10 100% (32)		NY-10 100% (33)		NY-12 100% (34)		NY-13 100% (35)
NY-14 100% (36)		NY-15 100% (37)		NY-5 100% (38)		NY-7 100% (39)		NY-8 100% (40)
NY-9 100% (41)		OH-11 100% (42)		PA-2 100% (43)		PA-3 100% (44)		RI-1 100% (45)
TN-5 100% (46)		TN-9 100% (47)		TX-30 100% (48)		TX-9 100% (49)		TX-18 100% (50)
WA-9 100% (51)		CA-51 100% (52)		WI-4 100% (53)		TX-33 100% (54)		CA-20 100% (55)
IL-1 100% (56)		CA-28 100% (57)		CA-5 100% (58)		NJ-8 100% (59)		CA-19 100% (60)
CA-6 100% (61)		AZ-7 100% (62)		OR-3 100% (63)		VA-8 Called (64)		MO-1 100% (65)
GA-13 100% (66)		OH-3 100% (67)		CA-2 100% (68)		CA-17 100% (69)		IL-9 100% (70)
CA-30 100% (71)		NC-12 100% (72)		IL-5 100% (73)		VA-3 100% (74)		NY-16 100% (75)
CA-15 100% (76)		SC-6 100% (77)		CO-1 100% (78)		CA-11 100% (79)		MA-1 100% (80)
IL-8 100% (81)		NJ-12 100% (82)		VA-11 100% (83)		MA-5 100% (84)		TX-29 100% (85)
CA-35 100% (86)		HI-1 100% (87)		MD-8 100% (88)		CA-32 100% (89)		WI-2 100% (90)
NY-6 100% (91)		NV-1 100% (92)		CA-46 100% (93)		NC-4 100% (94)		CA-33 100% (95)
MS-2 100% (96)		HI-2 100% (97)		MI-12 100% (98)		TX-16 100% (99)		PA-5 100% (100)
MD-5 100% (101)		CA-27 100% (102)		NJ-9 100% (103)		TX-35 100% (104)		CA-47 100% (105)
MN-4 100% (106)		OH-9 100% (107)		MD-3 100% (108)		PA-18 100% (109)		VA-4 100% (110)
WA-2 100% (111)		NJ-1 100% (112)		AZ-3 100% (113)		FL-5 100% (114)		FL-10 100% (115)
IN-7 100% (116)		MD-2 100% (117)		NC-2 100% (118)		IL-10 100% (119)		CA-41 100% (120)
CT-1 100% (121)		FL-23 100% (122)		KY-3 100% (123)		NC-6 100% (124)		NY-26 100% (125)
VT-1 100% (126)		TX-20 100% (127)		IL-11 100% (128)		OR-1 100% (129)		NY-25 100% (130)
NY-17 100% (131)		CO-2 100% (132)		WA-1 100% (133)		PA-4 100% (134)		MA-2 100% (135)
CA-16 100% (136)		CT-4 100% (137)		TX-34 100% (138)		MA-4 100% (139)		FL-21 100% (140)
CT-3 100% (141)		CA-52 100% (142)		NC-1 100% (143)		RI-2 100% (144)		NY-20 100% (145)
NJ-6 100% (146)		TX-28 99% (147)		CA-9 99% (148)		CA-31 99% (149)		CA-24 99% (150)
FL-14 99% (151)		WA-6 99% (152)		CA-26 99% (153)		MD-6 99% (154)		ME-1 99% (155)
MA-6 99% (156)		IN-1 99% (157)		AZ-9 99% (158)		MO-5 99% (159)		MI-5 99% (160)
DE-1 99% (161)		MI-9 99% (162)		OH-13 99% (163)		TX-15 99% (164)		FL-22 99% (165)
GA-2 99% (166)		NM-1 99% (167)		NY-4 99% (168)		NM-3 99% (169)		CA-3 99% (170)
FL-9 98% (171)		CO-7 98% (172)		MA-9 98% (173)		PA-6 98% (174)		CA-7 97% (175)
MN-3 97% (176)		VA-10 97% (177)		CA-49 97% (178)		NV-4 96% (179)		CO-6 96% (180)
FL-13 96% (181)		WA-8 96% (182)		CA-36 96% (183)		ME-2 96% (184)		CT-2 95% (185)
AZ-2 95% (186)		PA-7 95% (187)		OR-5 94% (188)		FL-7 94% (189)		CT-5 94% (190)
KS-3 93% (191)		NH-2 92% (192)		OR-4 91% (193)		CA-10 91% (194)		NY-3 90% (195)
AZ-1 90% (196)		MI-11 89% (197)		IL-17 89% (198)		NV-3 89% (199)		VA-7 88% (200)
NY-18 88% (201)		IA-3 88% (202)		MN-2 87% (203)		CA-45 87% (204)		MI-8 87% (205)
IA-1 87% (206)		IL-3 87% (207)		NY-19 86% (208)		WI-3 86% (209)		IA-2 84% (210)
NJ-5 82% (211)		PA-17 82% (212)		CA-48 82% (213)		FL-26 81% (214)		NJ-11 80% (215)
TX-32 79% (216)		PA-8 79% (217)		FL-27 78% (218)		VA-2 78% (219)		CA-39 76% (220)
NJ-3 72% (221)		NY-22 71% (222)		CA-21 70% (223)		NY-2 69% (224)		TX-23 68% (225)
NJ-7 68% (226)		IL-14 68% (227)		TX-7 67% (228)		NH-1 66% (229)		IL-6 65% (230)
SC-1 62% (231)		NJ-2 57% (232)		PA-10 55% (233)		GA-6 54% (234)		IN-5 50% (201)
UT-4 51% (200)		TX-24 51% (199)		CA-25 52% (198)		AZ-6 53% (197)		VA-5 53% (196)
OK-5 54% (195)		MI-3 54% (194)		NY-24 55% (193)		MI-6 55% (192)		AR-2 56% (191)
NM-2 56% (190)		IL-13 56% (189)		TX-22 56% (188)		KY-6 58% (187)		NC-8 59% (186)
NY-11 59% (185)		NE-2 60% (184)		GA-7 61% (183)		CO-3 61% (182)		MT-1 63% (181)
OH-1 64% (180)		NC-11 64% (179)		VA-1 64% (178)		MO-2 65% (177)		AK-1 65% (176)
MN-1 66% (175)		WA-3 66% (174)		NC-9 67% (173)		NY-21 67% (172)		FL-18 71% (171)
TX-21 72% (170)		MI-7 73% (169)		MN-8 73% (168)		NY-1 74% (167)		OH-10 74% (166)
KS-2 74% (165)		WA-5 75% (164)		CA-8 77% (163)		MN-7 77% (162)		OH-14 78% (161)
PA-1 78% (160)		TX-3 79% (159)		TX-10 79% (158)		OH-12 79% (157)		FL-15 80% (156)
TX-17 80% (155)		TX-25 80% (154)		CA-22 81% (153)		FL-16 82% (152)		TX-6 83% (151)
NV-2 83% (150)		CA-4 83% (149)		FL-3 84% (148)		OH-15 84% (147)		IL-12 85% (146)
TX-31 85% (145)		MI-1 85% (144)		CA-1 86% (143)		WI-1 86% (142)		PA-16 86% (141)
MI-2 86% (140)		OR-2 87% (139)		NY-23 88% (138)		IA-4 88% (137)		NY-27 89% (136)
MI-4 89% (135)		OH-16 89% (134)		CA-50 89% (133)		CA-42 90% (132)		OH-2 90% (131)
NC-7 90% (130)		SC-7 91% (129)		NJ-4 91% (128)		MI-10 91% (127)		SC-5 91% (126)
WI-8 92% (125)		LA-5 92% (124)		IL-16 92% (123)		WI-6 92% (122)		FL-6 93% (121)
WI-7 93% (120)		TX-2 93% (119)		UT-2 93% (118)		KS-4 94% (117)		VA-6 94% (116)
FL-12 94% (115)		WA-4 94% (114)		SC-2 94% (113)		GA-1 95% (112)		MS-3 95% (111)
LA-4 95% (110)		NC-3 95% (109)		FL-19 95% (108)		WI-5 95% (107)		GA-12 95% (106)
NE-1 95% (105)		IN-2 95% (104)		AL-1 96% (103)		OH-5 96% (102)		AL-2 97% (101)
TX-14 97% (100)		FL-8 97% (99)		MN-6 97% (98)		AZ-8 97% (97)		AZ-5 98% (96)
IN-9 98% (95)		CO-4 98% (94)		OH-7 98% (93)		UT-1 98% (92)		WV-2 98% (91)
CA-23 98% (90)		CO-5 98% (89)		PA-11 98% (88)		UT-3 99% (87)		PA-14 99% (86)
MS-1 99% (85)		FL-17 99% (84)		ID-2 99% (83)		AR-4 99% (82)		TX-27 99% (81)
SC-4 99% (80)		FL-4 99% (79)		OH-4 99% (78)		IN-8 99% (77)		AL-3 99% (76)
MD-1 99% (75)		PA-9 99% (74)		KY-4 99% (73)		IL-18 99% (72)		WV-1 99% (71)
AR-3 99% (70)		KY-2 99% (69)		NC-5 99% (68)		IN-4 99% (67)		MO-6 99% (66)
TX-5 100% (65)		GA-10 100% (64)		OK-4 100% (63)		ND-1 100% (62)		KS-1 100% (61)
OH-6 100% (60)		FL-11 100% (59)		IN-3 100% (58)		PA-12 100% (57)		TX-26 100% (56)
GA-8 100% (55)		IN-6 100% (54)		NC-13 100% (53)		NC-10 100% (52)		OH-8 100% (51)
MO-4 100% (50)		LA-6 100% (49)		GA-11 100% (48)		WY-1 100% (47)		OK-1 100% (46)
TN-8 100% (45)		TN-3 100% (44)		TX-12 100% (43)		WV-3 100% (42)		SC-3 100% (41)
PA-15 100% (40)		ID-1 100% (39)		KY-1 100% (38)		IL-15 100% (37)		MO-3 100% (36)
TN-2 100% (35)		GA-3 100% (34)		TN-4 100% (33)		TN-7 100% (32)		AZ-4 100% (31)
OK-2 100% (30)		FL-1 100% (29)		LA-3 100% (28)		PA-13 100% (27)		LA-1 100% (26)
TN-6 100% (25)		MO-7 100% (24)		TX-4 100% (23)		OK-3 100% (22)		TN-1 100% (21)
MO-8 100% (20)		GA-14 100% (19)		TX-1 100% (18)		TX-36 100% (17)		KY-5 100% (16)
NE-3 100% (15)		SD-1 100% (14)		TX-8 100% (13)		TX-11 100% (12)		AL-4 100% (11)
TX-19 100% (10)		FL-2 100% (9)		GA-9 100% (8)		TX-13 100% (7)		VA-9 100% (6)
AL-6 100% (5)		AL-5 100% (4)		AR-1 100% (3)		FL-25 100% (2)		MS-4 Called (1)