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Final: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%

Posted on November 3, 2020November 3, 2020 by data-art
Called / Solid Likely Ahead / Lean Too close / Toss-up Ahead / Lean Likely Called / Solid
President 236 278 319 94 125 122 94
Senate 43 47 51 3 46 42 38
House 187 220 231 20 184 164 112

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DemocratRepublican

President

Polling number have not yet been updated.

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
258
PA
84%
278
-4.6
50/46
NE2
72%
279
-3.8
50/46
0.0%
FL
69%
308
-2.5
49/47
20.9%
AZ
68%
319
-2.6
49/46
25.0%
NC
64%
334
-1.8
49/47
27.5%
GA
58%
350
-1.1
49/47
36.6%
ME2
57%
351
-2.8
49/46
19.6%
OH
55%
187
+0.7
47/48
43.9%
IA
60%
169
+1.3
46/48
39.3%
TX
62%
163
+1.2
47/49
35.0%
MT
82%
125
+4.4
45/50
4.2%
AK
85%
122
+7.6
44/51
Rep
>85%
119

All states:

State538
Prob
RatingCum.
EV
PollsDemRepUVN
       
District of Columbia100%Solid D3-85.090.85.8
Delaware100%Solid D6-24.358.934.6
New York100%Solid D35-29.462.332.9
Maryland100%Solid D45-31.563.131.6
Massachusetts100%Solid D56-35.764.628.9
Illinois100%Solid D76-16.055.039.0
Connecticut100%Solid D83-26.258.632.4
Rhode Island100%Solid D87-30.562.932.4
California100%Solid D142-29.261.632.4
Vermont100%Solid D145-38.766.527.8
Hawaii99%Solid D149-34.364.330.0
New Jersey99%Solid D163-20.558.437.9
Washington99%Solid D175-23.059.436.4
Virginia99%Solid D188-11.853.741.9
Oregon98%Solid D195-21.358.737.4
New Mexico98%Solid D200-11.853.942.1
ME-197%Solid D201-20.557.637.1
Colorado97%Solid D210-12.553.641.1
Minnesota96%Solid D220-9.151.842.7
Michigan95%Solid D236-8.051.243.2
Wisconsin94%Likely D246-8.452.143.7
Maine90%Likely D248-13.053.340.3
New Hampshire89%Likely D252-11.153.942.8
Nevada88%Likely D258-5.349.744.45.1%
Pennsylvania84%Likely D278-4.650.245.6
NE-272%Lean D279-3.850.046.20.0%
Florida69%Lean D308-2.549.146.620.9%
Arizona68%Lean D319-2.648.746.125.0%
North Carolina64%Toss-up334-1.848.947.127.5%
Georgia58%Toss-up350-1.148.547.436.6%
ME-257%Toss-up351-2.849.146.319.6%
Ohio55%Toss-up187+0.746.847.543.9%
Iowa60%Toss-up169+1.346.347.639.3%
Texas62%Toss-up163+1.247.448.635.0%
Montana82%Lean R125+4.445.449.84.2%
Alaska85%Likely R122+7.643.651.2
South Carolina90%Likely R119+7.144.551.6
Mississippi92%Likely R110+15.939.655.5
Missouri94%Likely R104+8.043.651.6
South Dakota95%Solid R94+15.539.054.5
Utah95%Solid R91+9.842.151.9
NE-196%Solid R85+5.045.850.8
Indiana96%Solid R84+10.942.052.9
Tennessee97%Solid R73+13.741.455.1
Louisiana97%Solid R62+20.537.157.6
North Dakota98%Solid R54+17.338.756.0
Alabama98%Solid R51+19.637.857.4
Kansas99%Solid R42+12.941.053.9
Kentucky99%Solid R36+15.739.955.6
Arkansas99%Solid R28+22.736.258.9
West Virginia99%Solid R22+28.633.562.1
Oklahoma99%Solid R17+23.036.259.2
Nebraska99%Solid R10+9.642.552.1
Idaho99%Solid R8+18.138.556.6
Wyoming100%Solid R4+31.530.862.3
NE-3100%Solid R1+47.125.472.5

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State
Prob
Seats
Dem
>85%
46
AZ
84%
47
NM
83%
48
GA2
78%
49
NC
74%
50
ME
70%
51
IA
50%
52
GA1
51%
48
MT
64%
47
AK
70%
46
SC
73%
45
KS
74%
44
MS
79%
43
TX
84%
42
Rep
>85%
41

All States:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
Seats
PollsDemRepUVN
D-cont100%D-called35    
MA100%Solid D36    
IL100%Solid D37    
RI100%Solid D38    
NJ100%Solid D39    
DE99%Solid D40    
VA99%Solid D41    
NH98%Solid D42    
OR97%Solid D43    
MN91%Likely D44    
MI91%Likely D45    
CO87%Likely D46    
AZ84%Likely D47    
NM83%Lean D48    
GA278%Lean D49    
NC74%Lean D50    
ME70%Lean D51    
IA50%Toss-up52    
GA151%Toss-up48    
MT64%Toss-up47    
AK70%Lean R46    
SC73%Lean R45    
KS74%Lean R44    
MS79%Lean R43    
TX84%Likely R42    
KY91%Likely R41    
LA93%Likely R40    
SD94%Likely R39    
AL96%Solid R38    
WV96%Solid R37    
OK98%Solid R36    
ID98%Solid R35    
TN98%Solid R34    
NE99%Solid R33    
WY99%Solid R32    
AR100%Solid R31    
R-cont100%R-called30    

House

Race classification and probabilities by 538. Majority 218.

“
Called /
Solid
LikelyAhead /
Lean
Too close /
Toss-Up
Ahead /
Lean
LikelyCalled /
Solid
187
seats
220
seats
231
seats
–
seats
184
seats
164
seats
112
seats
187
seats
33
seats
11
seats
20
seats
20
seats
52
seats
112
seats
”
WA-10 100% (1)   WA-7 100% (2)   AL-7 100% (3)   CA-12 100% (4)   CA-13 100% (5)
CA-14 100% (6)   CA-18 100% (7)   CA-29 100% (8)   CA-34 100% (9)   CA-37 100% (10)
CA-38 100% (11)   CA-40 100% (12)   CA-43 100% (13)   CA-44 100% (14)   CA-53 100% (15)
FL-20 100% (16)   FL-24 100% (17)   GA-4 100% (18)   GA-5 100% (19)   IL-2 100% (20)
IL-4 100% (21)   IL-7 100% (22)   LA-2 100% (23)   MA-3 100% (24)   MA-7 100% (25)
MA-8 100% (26)   MD-4 100% (27)   MD-7 100% (28)   MI-13 100% (29)   MI-14 100% (30)
MN-5 100% (31)   NJ-10 100% (32)   NY-10 100% (33)   NY-12 100% (34)   NY-13 100% (35)
NY-14 100% (36)   NY-15 100% (37)   NY-5 100% (38)   NY-7 100% (39)   NY-8 100% (40)
NY-9 100% (41)   OH-11 100% (42)   PA-2 100% (43)   PA-3 100% (44)   RI-1 100% (45)
TN-5 100% (46)   TN-9 100% (47)   TX-30 100% (48)   TX-9 100% (49)   TX-18 100% (50)
WA-9 100% (51)   CA-51 100% (52)   WI-4 100% (53)   TX-33 100% (54)   CA-20 100% (55)
IL-1 100% (56)   CA-28 100% (57)   CA-5 100% (58)   NJ-8 100% (59)   CA-19 100% (60)
CA-6 100% (61)   AZ-7 100% (62)   OR-3 100% (63)   VA-8 Called (64)   MO-1 100% (65)
GA-13 100% (66)   OH-3 100% (67)   CA-2 100% (68)   CA-17 100% (69)   IL-9 100% (70)
CA-30 100% (71)   NC-12 100% (72)   IL-5 100% (73)   VA-3 100% (74)   NY-16 100% (75)
CA-15 100% (76)   SC-6 100% (77)   CO-1 100% (78)   CA-11 100% (79)   MA-1 100% (80)
IL-8 100% (81)   NJ-12 100% (82)   VA-11 100% (83)   MA-5 100% (84)   TX-29 100% (85)
CA-35 100% (86)   HI-1 100% (87)   MD-8 100% (88)   CA-32 100% (89)   WI-2 100% (90)
NY-6 100% (91)   NV-1 100% (92)   CA-46 100% (93)   NC-4 100% (94)   CA-33 100% (95)
MS-2 100% (96)   HI-2 100% (97)   MI-12 100% (98)   TX-16 100% (99)   PA-5 100% (100)
MD-5 100% (101)   CA-27 100% (102)   NJ-9 100% (103)   TX-35 100% (104)   CA-47 100% (105)
MN-4 100% (106)   OH-9 100% (107)   MD-3 100% (108)   PA-18 100% (109)   VA-4 100% (110)
WA-2 100% (111)   NJ-1 100% (112)   AZ-3 100% (113)   FL-5 100% (114)   FL-10 100% (115)
IN-7 100% (116)   MD-2 100% (117)   NC-2 100% (118)   IL-10 100% (119)   CA-41 100% (120)
CT-1 100% (121)   FL-23 100% (122)   KY-3 100% (123)   NC-6 100% (124)   NY-26 100% (125)
VT-1 100% (126)   TX-20 100% (127)   IL-11 100% (128)   OR-1 100% (129)   NY-25 100% (130)
NY-17 100% (131)   CO-2 100% (132)   WA-1 100% (133)   PA-4 100% (134)   MA-2 100% (135)
CA-16 100% (136)   CT-4 100% (137)   TX-34 100% (138)   MA-4 100% (139)   FL-21 100% (140)
CT-3 100% (141)   CA-52 100% (142)   NC-1 100% (143)   RI-2 100% (144)   NY-20 100% (145)
NJ-6 100% (146)   TX-28 99% (147)   CA-9 99% (148)   CA-31 99% (149)   CA-24 99% (150)
FL-14 99% (151)   WA-6 99% (152)   CA-26 99% (153)   MD-6 99% (154)   ME-1 99% (155)
MA-6 99% (156)   IN-1 99% (157)   AZ-9 99% (158)   MO-5 99% (159)   MI-5 99% (160)
DE-1 99% (161)   MI-9 99% (162)   OH-13 99% (163)   TX-15 99% (164)   FL-22 99% (165)
GA-2 99% (166)   NM-1 99% (167)   NY-4 99% (168)   NM-3 99% (169)   CA-3 99% (170)
FL-9 98% (171)   CO-7 98% (172)   MA-9 98% (173)   PA-6 98% (174)   CA-7 97% (175)
MN-3 97% (176)   VA-10 97% (177)   CA-49 97% (178)   NV-4 96% (179)   CO-6 96% (180)
FL-13 96% (181)   WA-8 96% (182)   CA-36 96% (183)   ME-2 96% (184)   CT-2 95% (185)
AZ-2 95% (186)   PA-7 95% (187)   OR-5 94% (188)   FL-7 94% (189)   CT-5 94% (190)
KS-3 93% (191)   NH-2 92% (192)   OR-4 91% (193)   CA-10 91% (194)   NY-3 90% (195)
AZ-1 90% (196)   MI-11 89% (197)   IL-17 89% (198)   NV-3 89% (199)   VA-7 88% (200)
NY-18 88% (201)   IA-3 88% (202)   MN-2 87% (203)   CA-45 87% (204)   MI-8 87% (205)
IA-1 87% (206)   IL-3 87% (207)   NY-19 86% (208)   WI-3 86% (209)   IA-2 84% (210)
NJ-5 82% (211)   PA-17 82% (212)   CA-48 82% (213)   FL-26 81% (214)   NJ-11 80% (215)
TX-32 79% (216)   PA-8 79% (217)   FL-27 78% (218)   VA-2 78% (219)   CA-39 76% (220)
NJ-3 72% (221)   NY-22 71% (222)   CA-21 70% (223)   NY-2 69% (224)   TX-23 68% (225)
NJ-7 68% (226)   IL-14 68% (227)   TX-7 67% (228)   NH-1 66% (229)   IL-6 65% (230)
SC-1 62% (231)   NJ-2 57% (232)   PA-10 55% (233)   GA-6 54% (234)   IN-5 50% (201)
UT-4 51% (200)   TX-24 51% (199)   CA-25 52% (198)   AZ-6 53% (197)   VA-5 53% (196)
OK-5 54% (195)   MI-3 54% (194)   NY-24 55% (193)   MI-6 55% (192)   AR-2 56% (191)
NM-2 56% (190)   IL-13 56% (189)   TX-22 56% (188)   KY-6 58% (187)   NC-8 59% (186)
NY-11 59% (185)   NE-2 60% (184)   GA-7 61% (183)   CO-3 61% (182)   MT-1 63% (181)
OH-1 64% (180)   NC-11 64% (179)   VA-1 64% (178)   MO-2 65% (177)   AK-1 65% (176)
MN-1 66% (175)   WA-3 66% (174)   NC-9 67% (173)   NY-21 67% (172)   FL-18 71% (171)
TX-21 72% (170)   MI-7 73% (169)   MN-8 73% (168)   NY-1 74% (167)   OH-10 74% (166)
KS-2 74% (165)   WA-5 75% (164)   CA-8 77% (163)   MN-7 77% (162)   OH-14 78% (161)
PA-1 78% (160)   TX-3 79% (159)   TX-10 79% (158)   OH-12 79% (157)   FL-15 80% (156)
TX-17 80% (155)   TX-25 80% (154)   CA-22 81% (153)   FL-16 82% (152)   TX-6 83% (151)
NV-2 83% (150)   CA-4 83% (149)   FL-3 84% (148)   OH-15 84% (147)   IL-12 85% (146)
TX-31 85% (145)   MI-1 85% (144)   CA-1 86% (143)   WI-1 86% (142)   PA-16 86% (141)
MI-2 86% (140)   OR-2 87% (139)   NY-23 88% (138)   IA-4 88% (137)   NY-27 89% (136)
MI-4 89% (135)   OH-16 89% (134)   CA-50 89% (133)   CA-42 90% (132)   OH-2 90% (131)
NC-7 90% (130)   SC-7 91% (129)   NJ-4 91% (128)   MI-10 91% (127)   SC-5 91% (126)
WI-8 92% (125)   LA-5 92% (124)   IL-16 92% (123)   WI-6 92% (122)   FL-6 93% (121)
WI-7 93% (120)   TX-2 93% (119)   UT-2 93% (118)   KS-4 94% (117)   VA-6 94% (116)
FL-12 94% (115)   WA-4 94% (114)   SC-2 94% (113)   GA-1 95% (112)   MS-3 95% (111)
LA-4 95% (110)   NC-3 95% (109)   FL-19 95% (108)   WI-5 95% (107)   GA-12 95% (106)
NE-1 95% (105)   IN-2 95% (104)   AL-1 96% (103)   OH-5 96% (102)   AL-2 97% (101)
TX-14 97% (100)   FL-8 97% (99)   MN-6 97% (98)   AZ-8 97% (97)   AZ-5 98% (96)
IN-9 98% (95)   CO-4 98% (94)   OH-7 98% (93)   UT-1 98% (92)   WV-2 98% (91)
CA-23 98% (90)   CO-5 98% (89)   PA-11 98% (88)   UT-3 99% (87)   PA-14 99% (86)
MS-1 99% (85)   FL-17 99% (84)   ID-2 99% (83)   AR-4 99% (82)   TX-27 99% (81)
SC-4 99% (80)   FL-4 99% (79)   OH-4 99% (78)   IN-8 99% (77)   AL-3 99% (76)
MD-1 99% (75)   PA-9 99% (74)   KY-4 99% (73)   IL-18 99% (72)   WV-1 99% (71)
AR-3 99% (70)   KY-2 99% (69)   NC-5 99% (68)   IN-4 99% (67)   MO-6 99% (66)
TX-5 100% (65)   GA-10 100% (64)   OK-4 100% (63)   ND-1 100% (62)   KS-1 100% (61)
OH-6 100% (60)   FL-11 100% (59)   IN-3 100% (58)   PA-12 100% (57)   TX-26 100% (56)
GA-8 100% (55)   IN-6 100% (54)   NC-13 100% (53)   NC-10 100% (52)   OH-8 100% (51)
MO-4 100% (50)   LA-6 100% (49)   GA-11 100% (48)   WY-1 100% (47)   OK-1 100% (46)
TN-8 100% (45)   TN-3 100% (44)   TX-12 100% (43)   WV-3 100% (42)   SC-3 100% (41)
PA-15 100% (40)   ID-1 100% (39)   KY-1 100% (38)   IL-15 100% (37)   MO-3 100% (36)
TN-2 100% (35)   GA-3 100% (34)   TN-4 100% (33)   TN-7 100% (32)   AZ-4 100% (31)
OK-2 100% (30)   FL-1 100% (29)   LA-3 100% (28)   PA-13 100% (27)   LA-1 100% (26)
TN-6 100% (25)   MO-7 100% (24)   TX-4 100% (23)   OK-3 100% (22)   TN-1 100% (21)
MO-8 100% (20)   GA-14 100% (19)   TX-1 100% (18)   TX-36 100% (17)   KY-5 100% (16)
NE-3 100% (15)   SD-1 100% (14)   TX-8 100% (13)   TX-11 100% (12)   AL-4 100% (11)
TX-19 100% (10)   FL-2 100% (9)   GA-9 100% (8)   TX-13 100% (7)   VA-9 100% (6)
AL-6 100% (5)   AL-5 100% (4)   AR-1 100% (3)   FL-25 100% (2)   MS-4 Called (1)

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