With results: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%

	Called / Solid	Likely	Ahead / Lean	Too close / Toss-up	Ahead / Lean	Likely	Called / Solid
President	279	279	306	0	232	217	217
Senate	48	48	48	1	51	48	48
House	DEM

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Democrat

Republican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN

Dem
>85%
220

MI
95%
236
-8.0
51/43

WI
94%
246
-8.4
52/44

ME
90%
248
-13.0
53/40

NH
89%
252
-11.1
54/43

NV
88%
258
-5.3
50/44
5.1%

PA
84%
278
-4.6
50/46

NE2
72%
279
-3.8
50/46
0.0%

FL
69%
308
-2.5
49/47
20.9%

AZ
68%
319
-2.6
49/46
25.0%

NC
64%
334
-1.8
49/47
27.5%

GA
58%
350
-1.1
49/47
36.6%

ME2
57%
351
-2.8
49/46
19.6%

OH
55%
187
+0.7
47/48
43.9%

IA
60%
169
+1.3
46/48
39.3%

TX
62%
163
+1.2
47/49
35.0%

MT
82%
125
+4.4
45/50
4.2%

AK
85%
122
+7.6
44/51

Rep
>85%
119

All states:

State

538
Prob

Rating

Cum.
EV

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN


District of Columbia	100%	D-called	3	-85.0	90.8	5.8
Delaware	100%	D-called	6	-24.3	58.9	34.6
New York	100%	D-called	35	-29.4	62.3	32.9
Maryland	100%	D-called	45	-31.5	63.1	31.6
Massachusetts	100%	D-called	56	-35.7	64.6	28.9
Illinois	100%	D-called	76	-16.0	55.0	39.0
Connecticut	100%	D-called	83	-26.2	58.6	32.4
Rhode Island	100%	D-called	87	-30.5	62.9	32.4
California	100%	D-called	142	-29.2	61.6	32.4
Vermont	100%	D-called	145	-38.7	66.5	27.8
Hawaii	99%	D-called	149	-34.3	64.3	30.0
New Jersey	99%	D-called	163	-20.5	58.4	37.9
Washington	99%	D-called	175	-23.0	59.4	36.4
Virginia	99%	D-called	188	-11.8	53.7	41.9
Oregon	98%	D-called	195	-21.3	58.7	37.4
New Mexico	98%	D-called	200	-11.8	53.9	42.1
ME-1	97%	D-called	201	-20.5	57.6	37.1
Colorado	97%	D-called	210	-12.5	53.6	41.1
Minnesota	96%	D-called	220	-9.1	51.8	42.7
Michigan	95%	D-called	236	-8.0	51.2	43.2
Wisconsin	94%	D-called	246	-8.4	52.1	43.7
Maine	90%	D-called	248	-13.0	53.3	40.3
New Hampshire	89%	D-called	252	-11.1	53.9	42.8
Nevada	88%	D-called	258	-5.3	49.7	44.4	5.1%
Pennsylvania	84%	D-called	278	-4.6	50.2	45.6
NE-2	72%	D-called	279	-3.8	50.0	46.2	0.0%
Florida	69%	R-called	308	-2.5	49.1	46.6	20.9%
Arizona	68%	D-ahead	319	-2.6	48.7	46.1	25.0%
North Carolina	64%	R-ahead	334	-1.8	48.9	47.1	27.5%
Georgia	58%	D-ahead	350	-1.1	48.5	47.4	36.6%
ME-2	57%	R-called	351	-2.8	49.1	46.3	19.6%
Ohio	55%	R-called	187	+0.7	46.8	47.5	43.9%
Iowa	60%	R-called	169	+1.3	46.3	47.6	39.3%
Texas	62%	R-called	163	+1.2	47.4	48.6	35.0%
Montana	82%	R-called	125	+4.4	45.4	49.8	4.2%
Alaska	85%	R-called	122	+7.6	43.6	51.2
South Carolina	90%	R-called	119	+7.1	44.5	51.6
Mississippi	92%	R-called	110	+15.9	39.6	55.5
Missouri	94%	R-called	104	+8.0	43.6	51.6
South Dakota	95%	R-called	94	+15.5	39.0	54.5
Utah	95%	R-called	91	+9.8	42.1	51.9
NE-1	96%	R-called	85	+5.0	45.8	50.8
Indiana	96%	R-called	84	+10.9	42.0	52.9
Tennessee	97%	R-called	73	+13.7	41.4	55.1
Louisiana	97%	R-called	62	+20.5	37.1	57.6
North Dakota	98%	R-called	54	+17.3	38.7	56.0
Alabama	98%	R-called	51	+19.6	37.8	57.4
Kansas	99%	R-called	42	+12.9	41.0	53.9
Kentucky	99%	R-called	36	+15.7	39.9	55.6
Arkansas	99%	R-called	28	+22.7	36.2	58.9
West Virginia	99%	R-called	22	+28.6	33.5	62.1
Oklahoma	99%	R-called	17	+23.0	36.2	59.2
Nebraska	99%	R-called	10	+9.6	42.5	52.1
Idaho	99%	R-called	8	+18.1	38.5	56.6
Wyoming	100%	R-called	4	+31.5	30.8	62.3
NE-3	100%	R-called	1	+47.1	25.4	72.5

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State
Prob
Seats

Dem
>85%
44

MI
91%
45

CO
87%
46

AZ
84%
47

NM
83%
48

GA2
78%
49

NC
74%
50

ME
70%
51

IA
50%
52

GA1
51%
48

MT
64%
47

AK
70%
46

SC
73%
45

KS
74%
44

MS
79%
43

TX
84%
42

Rep
>85%
41

All States:

State

538
Prob

Cook
Political

Cum.
Seats

Polls

Dem

Rep

UVN

D-cont	100%	D-called	35
MA	100%	D-called	36
IL	100%	D-called	37
RI	100%	D-called	38
NJ	100%	D-called	39
DE	99%	D-called	40
VA	99%	D-called	41
NH	98%	D-called	42
OR	97%	D-called	43
MN	91%	D-called	44
MI	91%	D-called	45
CO	87%	D-called	46
AZ	84%	D-called	47
NM	83%	D-called	48
GA2	78%	Too close	49
NC	74%	R-ahead	50
ME	70%	R-called	51
IA	50%	R-called	52
GA1	51%	R-ahead	48
MT	64%	R-called	47
AK	70%	R-ahead	46
SC	73%	R-called	45
KS	74%	R-called	44
MS	79%	R-called	43
TX	84%	R-called	42
KY	91%	R-called	41
LA	93%	R-called	40
SD	94%	R-called	39
AL	96%	R-called	38
WV	96%	R-called	37
OK	98%	R-called	36
ID	98%	R-called	35
TN	98%	R-called	34
NE	99%	R-called	33
WY	99%	R-called	32
AR	100%	R-called	31
R-cont	100%	R-called	30

House (not updated with results)

Race classification and probabilities by 538. Majority 218.

“

Called / Solid	Likely	Ahead / Lean	Too close / Toss-Up	Ahead / Lean	Likely	Called / Solid
187 seats	220 seats	231 seats	– seats	184 seats	164 seats	112 seats
187 seats	33 seats	11 seats	20 seats	20 seats	52 seats	112 seats

”

WA-10 100% (1)	WA-7 100% (2)	AL-7 100% (3)	CA-12 100% (4)	CA-13 100% (5)
CA-14 100% (6)	CA-18 100% (7)	CA-29 100% (8)	CA-34 100% (9)	CA-37 100% (10)
CA-38 100% (11)	CA-40 100% (12)	CA-43 100% (13)	CA-44 100% (14)	CA-53 100% (15)
FL-20 100% (16)	FL-24 100% (17)	GA-4 100% (18)	GA-5 100% (19)	IL-2 100% (20)
IL-4 100% (21)	IL-7 100% (22)	LA-2 100% (23)	MA-3 100% (24)	MA-7 100% (25)
MA-8 100% (26)	MD-4 100% (27)	MD-7 100% (28)	MI-13 100% (29)	MI-14 100% (30)
MN-5 100% (31)	NJ-10 100% (32)	NY-10 100% (33)	NY-12 100% (34)	NY-13 100% (35)
NY-14 100% (36)	NY-15 100% (37)	NY-5 100% (38)	NY-7 100% (39)	NY-8 100% (40)
NY-9 100% (41)	OH-11 100% (42)	PA-2 100% (43)	PA-3 100% (44)	RI-1 100% (45)
TN-5 100% (46)	TN-9 100% (47)	TX-30 100% (48)	TX-9 100% (49)	TX-18 100% (50)
WA-9 100% (51)	CA-51 100% (52)	WI-4 100% (53)	TX-33 100% (54)	CA-20 100% (55)
IL-1 100% (56)	CA-28 100% (57)	CA-5 100% (58)	NJ-8 100% (59)	CA-19 100% (60)
CA-6 100% (61)	AZ-7 100% (62)	OR-3 100% (63)	VA-8 Called (64)	MO-1 100% (65)
GA-13 100% (66)	OH-3 100% (67)	CA-2 100% (68)	CA-17 100% (69)	IL-9 100% (70)
CA-30 100% (71)	NC-12 100% (72)	IL-5 100% (73)	VA-3 100% (74)	NY-16 100% (75)
CA-15 100% (76)	SC-6 100% (77)	CO-1 100% (78)	CA-11 100% (79)	MA-1 100% (80)
IL-8 100% (81)	NJ-12 100% (82)	VA-11 100% (83)	MA-5 100% (84)	TX-29 100% (85)
CA-35 100% (86)	HI-1 100% (87)	MD-8 100% (88)	CA-32 100% (89)	WI-2 100% (90)
NY-6 100% (91)	NV-1 100% (92)	CA-46 100% (93)	NC-4 100% (94)	CA-33 100% (95)
MS-2 100% (96)	HI-2 100% (97)	MI-12 100% (98)	TX-16 100% (99)	PA-5 100% (100)
MD-5 100% (101)	CA-27 100% (102)	NJ-9 100% (103)	TX-35 100% (104)	CA-47 100% (105)
MN-4 100% (106)	OH-9 100% (107)	MD-3 100% (108)	PA-18 100% (109)	VA-4 100% (110)
WA-2 100% (111)	NJ-1 100% (112)	AZ-3 100% (113)	FL-5 100% (114)	FL-10 100% (115)
IN-7 100% (116)	MD-2 100% (117)	NC-2 100% (118)	IL-10 100% (119)	CA-41 100% (120)
CT-1 100% (121)	FL-23 100% (122)	KY-3 100% (123)	NC-6 100% (124)	NY-26 100% (125)
VT-1 100% (126)	TX-20 100% (127)	IL-11 100% (128)	OR-1 100% (129)	NY-25 100% (130)
NY-17 100% (131)	CO-2 100% (132)	WA-1 100% (133)	PA-4 100% (134)	MA-2 100% (135)
CA-16 100% (136)	CT-4 100% (137)	TX-34 100% (138)	MA-4 100% (139)	FL-21 100% (140)
CT-3 100% (141)	CA-52 100% (142)	NC-1 100% (143)	RI-2 100% (144)	NY-20 100% (145)
NJ-6 100% (146)	TX-28 99% (147)	CA-9 99% (148)	CA-31 99% (149)	CA-24 99% (150)
FL-14 99% (151)	WA-6 99% (152)	CA-26 99% (153)	MD-6 99% (154)	ME-1 99% (155)
MA-6 99% (156)	IN-1 99% (157)	AZ-9 99% (158)	MO-5 99% (159)	MI-5 99% (160)
DE-1 99% (161)	MI-9 99% (162)	OH-13 99% (163)	TX-15 99% (164)	FL-22 99% (165)
GA-2 99% (166)	NM-1 99% (167)	NY-4 99% (168)	NM-3 99% (169)	CA-3 99% (170)
FL-9 98% (171)	CO-7 98% (172)	MA-9 98% (173)	PA-6 98% (174)	CA-7 97% (175)
MN-3 97% (176)	VA-10 97% (177)	CA-49 97% (178)	NV-4 96% (179)	CO-6 96% (180)
FL-13 96% (181)	WA-8 96% (182)	CA-36 96% (183)	ME-2 96% (184)	CT-2 95% (185)
AZ-2 95% (186)	PA-7 95% (187)	OR-5 94% (188)	FL-7 94% (189)	CT-5 94% (190)
KS-3 93% (191)	NH-2 92% (192)	OR-4 91% (193)	CA-10 91% (194)	NY-3 90% (195)
AZ-1 90% (196)	MI-11 89% (197)	IL-17 89% (198)	NV-3 89% (199)	VA-7 88% (200)
NY-18 88% (201)	IA-3 88% (202)	MN-2 87% (203)	CA-45 87% (204)	MI-8 87% (205)
IA-1 87% (206)	IL-3 87% (207)	NY-19 86% (208)	WI-3 86% (209)	IA-2 84% (210)
NJ-5 82% (211)	PA-17 82% (212)	CA-48 82% (213)	FL-26 81% (214)	NJ-11 80% (215)
TX-32 79% (216)	PA-8 79% (217)	FL-27 78% (218)	VA-2 78% (219)	CA-39 76% (220)
NJ-3 72% (221)	NY-22 71% (222)	CA-21 70% (223)	NY-2 69% (224)	TX-23 68% (225)
NJ-7 68% (226)	IL-14 68% (227)	TX-7 67% (228)	NH-1 66% (229)	IL-6 65% (230)
SC-1 62% (231)	NJ-2 57% (232)	PA-10 55% (233)	GA-6 54% (234)	IN-5 50% (201)
UT-4 51% (200)	TX-24 51% (199)	CA-25 52% (198)	AZ-6 53% (197)	VA-5 53% (196)
OK-5 54% (195)	MI-3 54% (194)	NY-24 55% (193)	MI-6 55% (192)	AR-2 56% (191)
NM-2 56% (190)	IL-13 56% (189)	TX-22 56% (188)	KY-6 58% (187)	NC-8 59% (186)
NY-11 59% (185)	NE-2 60% (184)	GA-7 61% (183)	CO-3 61% (182)	MT-1 63% (181)
OH-1 64% (180)	NC-11 64% (179)	VA-1 64% (178)	MO-2 65% (177)	AK-1 65% (176)
MN-1 66% (175)	WA-3 66% (174)	NC-9 67% (173)	NY-21 67% (172)	FL-18 71% (171)
TX-21 72% (170)	MI-7 73% (169)	MN-8 73% (168)	NY-1 74% (167)	OH-10 74% (166)
KS-2 74% (165)	WA-5 75% (164)	CA-8 77% (163)	MN-7 77% (162)	OH-14 78% (161)
PA-1 78% (160)	TX-3 79% (159)	TX-10 79% (158)	OH-12 79% (157)	FL-15 80% (156)
TX-17 80% (155)	TX-25 80% (154)	CA-22 81% (153)	FL-16 82% (152)	TX-6 83% (151)
NV-2 83% (150)	CA-4 83% (149)	FL-3 84% (148)	OH-15 84% (147)	IL-12 85% (146)
TX-31 85% (145)	MI-1 85% (144)	CA-1 86% (143)	WI-1 86% (142)	PA-16 86% (141)
MI-2 86% (140)	OR-2 87% (139)	NY-23 88% (138)	IA-4 88% (137)	NY-27 89% (136)
MI-4 89% (135)	OH-16 89% (134)	CA-50 89% (133)	CA-42 90% (132)	OH-2 90% (131)
NC-7 90% (130)	SC-7 91% (129)	NJ-4 91% (128)	MI-10 91% (127)	SC-5 91% (126)
WI-8 92% (125)	LA-5 92% (124)	IL-16 92% (123)	WI-6 92% (122)	FL-6 93% (121)
WI-7 93% (120)	TX-2 93% (119)	UT-2 93% (118)	KS-4 94% (117)	VA-6 94% (116)
FL-12 94% (115)	WA-4 94% (114)	SC-2 94% (113)	GA-1 95% (112)	MS-3 95% (111)
LA-4 95% (110)	NC-3 95% (109)	FL-19 95% (108)	WI-5 95% (107)	GA-12 95% (106)
NE-1 95% (105)	IN-2 95% (104)	AL-1 96% (103)	OH-5 96% (102)	AL-2 97% (101)
TX-14 97% (100)	FL-8 97% (99)	MN-6 97% (98)	AZ-8 97% (97)	AZ-5 98% (96)
IN-9 98% (95)	CO-4 98% (94)	OH-7 98% (93)	UT-1 98% (92)	WV-2 98% (91)
CA-23 98% (90)	CO-5 98% (89)	PA-11 98% (88)	UT-3 99% (87)	PA-14 99% (86)
MS-1 99% (85)	FL-17 99% (84)	ID-2 99% (83)	AR-4 99% (82)	TX-27 99% (81)
SC-4 99% (80)	FL-4 99% (79)	OH-4 99% (78)	IN-8 99% (77)	AL-3 99% (76)
MD-1 99% (75)	PA-9 99% (74)	KY-4 99% (73)	IL-18 99% (72)	WV-1 99% (71)
AR-3 99% (70)	KY-2 99% (69)	NC-5 99% (68)	IN-4 99% (67)	MO-6 99% (66)
TX-5 100% (65)	GA-10 100% (64)	OK-4 100% (63)	ND-1 100% (62)	KS-1 100% (61)
OH-6 100% (60)	FL-11 100% (59)	IN-3 100% (58)	PA-12 100% (57)	TX-26 100% (56)
GA-8 100% (55)	IN-6 100% (54)	NC-13 100% (53)	NC-10 100% (52)	OH-8 100% (51)
MO-4 100% (50)	LA-6 100% (49)	GA-11 100% (48)	WY-1 100% (47)	OK-1 100% (46)
TN-8 100% (45)	TN-3 100% (44)	TX-12 100% (43)	WV-3 100% (42)	SC-3 100% (41)
PA-15 100% (40)	ID-1 100% (39)	KY-1 100% (38)	IL-15 100% (37)	MO-3 100% (36)
TN-2 100% (35)	GA-3 100% (34)	TN-4 100% (33)	TN-7 100% (32)	AZ-4 100% (31)
OK-2 100% (30)	FL-1 100% (29)	LA-3 100% (28)	PA-13 100% (27)	LA-1 100% (26)
TN-6 100% (25)	MO-7 100% (24)	TX-4 100% (23)	OK-3 100% (22)	TN-1 100% (21)
MO-8 100% (20)	GA-14 100% (19)	TX-1 100% (18)	TX-36 100% (17)	KY-5 100% (16)
NE-3 100% (15)	SD-1 100% (14)	TX-8 100% (13)	TX-11 100% (12)	AL-4 100% (11)
TX-19 100% (10)	FL-2 100% (9)	GA-9 100% (8)	TX-13 100% (7)	VA-9 100% (6)
AL-6 100% (5)	AL-5 100% (4)	AR-1 100% (3)	FL-25 100% (2)	MS-4 Called (1)