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With results: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%

Posted on November 4, 2020November 8, 2020 by data-art
Called / Solid Likely Ahead / Lean Too close / Toss-up Ahead / Lean Likely Called / Solid
President 279 279 306 0 232 217 217
Senate 48 48 48 1 51 48 48
House DEM

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DemocratRepublican

President

States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)

States in play:

State
Prob
EV
Polls
..D/R
UVN
Dem
>85%
220
MI
95%
236
-8.0
51/43
WI
94%
246
-8.4
52/44
ME
90%
248
-13.0
53/40
NH
89%
252
-11.1
54/43
NV
88%
258
-5.3
50/44
5.1%
PA
84%
278
-4.6
50/46
NE2
72%
279
-3.8
50/46
0.0%
FL
69%
308
-2.5
49/47
20.9%
AZ
68%
319
-2.6
49/46
25.0%
NC
64%
334
-1.8
49/47
27.5%
GA
58%
350
-1.1
49/47
36.6%
ME2
57%
351
-2.8
49/46
19.6%
OH
55%
187
+0.7
47/48
43.9%
IA
60%
169
+1.3
46/48
39.3%
TX
62%
163
+1.2
47/49
35.0%
MT
82%
125
+4.4
45/50
4.2%
AK
85%
122
+7.6
44/51
Rep
>85%
119

All states:

State538
Prob
RatingCum.
EV
PollsDemRepUVN
       
District of Columbia100%D-called3-85.090.85.8
Delaware100%D-called6-24.358.934.6
New York100%D-called35-29.462.332.9
Maryland100%D-called45-31.563.131.6
Massachusetts100%D-called56-35.764.628.9
Illinois100%D-called76-16.055.039.0
Connecticut100%D-called83-26.258.632.4
Rhode Island100%D-called87-30.562.932.4
California100%D-called142-29.261.632.4
Vermont100%D-called145-38.766.527.8
Hawaii99%D-called149-34.364.330.0
New Jersey99%D-called163-20.558.437.9
Washington99%D-called175-23.059.436.4
Virginia99%D-called188-11.853.741.9
Oregon98%D-called195-21.358.737.4
New Mexico98%D-called200-11.853.942.1
ME-197%D-called201-20.557.637.1
Colorado97%D-called210-12.553.641.1
Minnesota96%D-called220-9.151.842.7
Michigan95%D-called236-8.051.243.2
Wisconsin94%D-called246-8.452.143.7
Maine90%D-called248-13.053.340.3
New Hampshire89%D-called252-11.153.942.8
Nevada88%D-called258-5.349.744.45.1%
Pennsylvania84%D-called278-4.650.245.6
NE-272%D-called279-3.850.046.20.0%
Florida69%R-called308-2.549.146.620.9%
Arizona68%D-ahead319-2.648.746.125.0%
North Carolina64%R-ahead334-1.848.947.127.5%
Georgia58%D-ahead350-1.148.547.436.6%
ME-257%R-called351-2.849.146.319.6%
Ohio55%R-called187+0.746.847.543.9%
Iowa60%R-called169+1.346.347.639.3%
Texas62%R-called163+1.247.448.635.0%
Montana82%R-called125+4.445.449.84.2%
Alaska85%R-called122+7.643.651.2
South Carolina90%R-called119+7.144.551.6
Mississippi92%R-called110+15.939.655.5
Missouri94%R-called104+8.043.651.6
South Dakota95%R-called94+15.539.054.5
Utah95%R-called91+9.842.151.9
NE-196%R-called85+5.045.850.8
Indiana96%R-called84+10.942.052.9
Tennessee97%R-called73+13.741.455.1
Louisiana97%R-called62+20.537.157.6
North Dakota98%R-called54+17.338.756.0
Alabama98%R-called51+19.637.857.4
Kansas99%R-called42+12.941.053.9
Kentucky99%R-called36+15.739.955.6
Arkansas99%R-called28+22.736.258.9
West Virginia99%R-called22+28.633.562.1
Oklahoma99%R-called17+23.036.259.2
Nebraska99%R-called10+9.642.552.1
Idaho99%R-called8+18.138.556.6
Wyoming100%R-called4+31.530.862.3
NE-3100%R-called1+47.125.472.5

Senate

Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency)

States in Play:

State
Prob
Seats
Dem
>85%
44
MI
91%
45
CO
87%
46
AZ
84%
47
NM
83%
48
GA2
78%
49
NC
74%
50
ME
70%
51
IA
50%
52
GA1
51%
48
MT
64%
47
AK
70%
46
SC
73%
45
KS
74%
44
MS
79%
43
TX
84%
42
Rep
>85%
41

All States:

State538
Prob
Cook
Political
Cum.
Seats
PollsDemRepUVN
D-cont100%D-called35    
MA100%D-called36    
IL100%D-called37    
RI100%D-called38    
NJ100%D-called39    
DE99%D-called40    
VA99%D-called41    
NH98%D-called42    
OR97%D-called43    
MN91%D-called44    
MI91%D-called45    
CO87%D-called46    
AZ84%D-called47    
NM83%D-called48    
GA278%Too close49    
NC74%R-ahead50    
ME70%R-called51    
IA50%R-called52    
GA151%R-ahead48    
MT64%R-called47    
AK70%R-ahead46    
SC73%R-called45    
KS74%R-called44    
MS79%R-called43    
TX84%R-called42    
KY91%R-called41    
LA93%R-called40    
SD94%R-called39    
AL96%R-called38    
WV96%R-called37    
OK98%R-called36    
ID98%R-called35    
TN98%R-called34    
NE99%R-called33    
WY99%R-called32    
AR100%R-called31    
R-cont100%R-called30    

House (not updated with results)

Race classification and probabilities by 538. Majority 218.

“
Called /
Solid
LikelyAhead /
Lean
Too close /
Toss-Up
Ahead /
Lean
LikelyCalled /
Solid
187
seats
220
seats
231
seats
–
seats
184
seats
164
seats
112
seats
187
seats
33
seats
11
seats
20
seats
20
seats
52
seats
112
seats
”
WA-10 100% (1)   WA-7 100% (2)   AL-7 100% (3)   CA-12 100% (4)   CA-13 100% (5)
CA-14 100% (6)   CA-18 100% (7)   CA-29 100% (8)   CA-34 100% (9)   CA-37 100% (10)
CA-38 100% (11)   CA-40 100% (12)   CA-43 100% (13)   CA-44 100% (14)   CA-53 100% (15)
FL-20 100% (16)   FL-24 100% (17)   GA-4 100% (18)   GA-5 100% (19)   IL-2 100% (20)
IL-4 100% (21)   IL-7 100% (22)   LA-2 100% (23)   MA-3 100% (24)   MA-7 100% (25)
MA-8 100% (26)   MD-4 100% (27)   MD-7 100% (28)   MI-13 100% (29)   MI-14 100% (30)
MN-5 100% (31)   NJ-10 100% (32)   NY-10 100% (33)   NY-12 100% (34)   NY-13 100% (35)
NY-14 100% (36)   NY-15 100% (37)   NY-5 100% (38)   NY-7 100% (39)   NY-8 100% (40)
NY-9 100% (41)   OH-11 100% (42)   PA-2 100% (43)   PA-3 100% (44)   RI-1 100% (45)
TN-5 100% (46)   TN-9 100% (47)   TX-30 100% (48)   TX-9 100% (49)   TX-18 100% (50)
WA-9 100% (51)   CA-51 100% (52)   WI-4 100% (53)   TX-33 100% (54)   CA-20 100% (55)
IL-1 100% (56)   CA-28 100% (57)   CA-5 100% (58)   NJ-8 100% (59)   CA-19 100% (60)
CA-6 100% (61)   AZ-7 100% (62)   OR-3 100% (63)   VA-8 Called (64)   MO-1 100% (65)
GA-13 100% (66)   OH-3 100% (67)   CA-2 100% (68)   CA-17 100% (69)   IL-9 100% (70)
CA-30 100% (71)   NC-12 100% (72)   IL-5 100% (73)   VA-3 100% (74)   NY-16 100% (75)
CA-15 100% (76)   SC-6 100% (77)   CO-1 100% (78)   CA-11 100% (79)   MA-1 100% (80)
IL-8 100% (81)   NJ-12 100% (82)   VA-11 100% (83)   MA-5 100% (84)   TX-29 100% (85)
CA-35 100% (86)   HI-1 100% (87)   MD-8 100% (88)   CA-32 100% (89)   WI-2 100% (90)
NY-6 100% (91)   NV-1 100% (92)   CA-46 100% (93)   NC-4 100% (94)   CA-33 100% (95)
MS-2 100% (96)   HI-2 100% (97)   MI-12 100% (98)   TX-16 100% (99)   PA-5 100% (100)
MD-5 100% (101)   CA-27 100% (102)   NJ-9 100% (103)   TX-35 100% (104)   CA-47 100% (105)
MN-4 100% (106)   OH-9 100% (107)   MD-3 100% (108)   PA-18 100% (109)   VA-4 100% (110)
WA-2 100% (111)   NJ-1 100% (112)   AZ-3 100% (113)   FL-5 100% (114)   FL-10 100% (115)
IN-7 100% (116)   MD-2 100% (117)   NC-2 100% (118)   IL-10 100% (119)   CA-41 100% (120)
CT-1 100% (121)   FL-23 100% (122)   KY-3 100% (123)   NC-6 100% (124)   NY-26 100% (125)
VT-1 100% (126)   TX-20 100% (127)   IL-11 100% (128)   OR-1 100% (129)   NY-25 100% (130)
NY-17 100% (131)   CO-2 100% (132)   WA-1 100% (133)   PA-4 100% (134)   MA-2 100% (135)
CA-16 100% (136)   CT-4 100% (137)   TX-34 100% (138)   MA-4 100% (139)   FL-21 100% (140)
CT-3 100% (141)   CA-52 100% (142)   NC-1 100% (143)   RI-2 100% (144)   NY-20 100% (145)
NJ-6 100% (146)   TX-28 99% (147)   CA-9 99% (148)   CA-31 99% (149)   CA-24 99% (150)
FL-14 99% (151)   WA-6 99% (152)   CA-26 99% (153)   MD-6 99% (154)   ME-1 99% (155)
MA-6 99% (156)   IN-1 99% (157)   AZ-9 99% (158)   MO-5 99% (159)   MI-5 99% (160)
DE-1 99% (161)   MI-9 99% (162)   OH-13 99% (163)   TX-15 99% (164)   FL-22 99% (165)
GA-2 99% (166)   NM-1 99% (167)   NY-4 99% (168)   NM-3 99% (169)   CA-3 99% (170)
FL-9 98% (171)   CO-7 98% (172)   MA-9 98% (173)   PA-6 98% (174)   CA-7 97% (175)
MN-3 97% (176)   VA-10 97% (177)   CA-49 97% (178)   NV-4 96% (179)   CO-6 96% (180)
FL-13 96% (181)   WA-8 96% (182)   CA-36 96% (183)   ME-2 96% (184)   CT-2 95% (185)
AZ-2 95% (186)   PA-7 95% (187)   OR-5 94% (188)   FL-7 94% (189)   CT-5 94% (190)
KS-3 93% (191)   NH-2 92% (192)   OR-4 91% (193)   CA-10 91% (194)   NY-3 90% (195)
AZ-1 90% (196)   MI-11 89% (197)   IL-17 89% (198)   NV-3 89% (199)   VA-7 88% (200)
NY-18 88% (201)   IA-3 88% (202)   MN-2 87% (203)   CA-45 87% (204)   MI-8 87% (205)
IA-1 87% (206)   IL-3 87% (207)   NY-19 86% (208)   WI-3 86% (209)   IA-2 84% (210)
NJ-5 82% (211)   PA-17 82% (212)   CA-48 82% (213)   FL-26 81% (214)   NJ-11 80% (215)
TX-32 79% (216)   PA-8 79% (217)   FL-27 78% (218)   VA-2 78% (219)   CA-39 76% (220)
NJ-3 72% (221)   NY-22 71% (222)   CA-21 70% (223)   NY-2 69% (224)   TX-23 68% (225)
NJ-7 68% (226)   IL-14 68% (227)   TX-7 67% (228)   NH-1 66% (229)   IL-6 65% (230)
SC-1 62% (231)   NJ-2 57% (232)   PA-10 55% (233)   GA-6 54% (234)   IN-5 50% (201)
UT-4 51% (200)   TX-24 51% (199)   CA-25 52% (198)   AZ-6 53% (197)   VA-5 53% (196)
OK-5 54% (195)   MI-3 54% (194)   NY-24 55% (193)   MI-6 55% (192)   AR-2 56% (191)
NM-2 56% (190)   IL-13 56% (189)   TX-22 56% (188)   KY-6 58% (187)   NC-8 59% (186)
NY-11 59% (185)   NE-2 60% (184)   GA-7 61% (183)   CO-3 61% (182)   MT-1 63% (181)
OH-1 64% (180)   NC-11 64% (179)   VA-1 64% (178)   MO-2 65% (177)   AK-1 65% (176)
MN-1 66% (175)   WA-3 66% (174)   NC-9 67% (173)   NY-21 67% (172)   FL-18 71% (171)
TX-21 72% (170)   MI-7 73% (169)   MN-8 73% (168)   NY-1 74% (167)   OH-10 74% (166)
KS-2 74% (165)   WA-5 75% (164)   CA-8 77% (163)   MN-7 77% (162)   OH-14 78% (161)
PA-1 78% (160)   TX-3 79% (159)   TX-10 79% (158)   OH-12 79% (157)   FL-15 80% (156)
TX-17 80% (155)   TX-25 80% (154)   CA-22 81% (153)   FL-16 82% (152)   TX-6 83% (151)
NV-2 83% (150)   CA-4 83% (149)   FL-3 84% (148)   OH-15 84% (147)   IL-12 85% (146)
TX-31 85% (145)   MI-1 85% (144)   CA-1 86% (143)   WI-1 86% (142)   PA-16 86% (141)
MI-2 86% (140)   OR-2 87% (139)   NY-23 88% (138)   IA-4 88% (137)   NY-27 89% (136)
MI-4 89% (135)   OH-16 89% (134)   CA-50 89% (133)   CA-42 90% (132)   OH-2 90% (131)
NC-7 90% (130)   SC-7 91% (129)   NJ-4 91% (128)   MI-10 91% (127)   SC-5 91% (126)
WI-8 92% (125)   LA-5 92% (124)   IL-16 92% (123)   WI-6 92% (122)   FL-6 93% (121)
WI-7 93% (120)   TX-2 93% (119)   UT-2 93% (118)   KS-4 94% (117)   VA-6 94% (116)
FL-12 94% (115)   WA-4 94% (114)   SC-2 94% (113)   GA-1 95% (112)   MS-3 95% (111)
LA-4 95% (110)   NC-3 95% (109)   FL-19 95% (108)   WI-5 95% (107)   GA-12 95% (106)
NE-1 95% (105)   IN-2 95% (104)   AL-1 96% (103)   OH-5 96% (102)   AL-2 97% (101)
TX-14 97% (100)   FL-8 97% (99)   MN-6 97% (98)   AZ-8 97% (97)   AZ-5 98% (96)
IN-9 98% (95)   CO-4 98% (94)   OH-7 98% (93)   UT-1 98% (92)   WV-2 98% (91)
CA-23 98% (90)   CO-5 98% (89)   PA-11 98% (88)   UT-3 99% (87)   PA-14 99% (86)
MS-1 99% (85)   FL-17 99% (84)   ID-2 99% (83)   AR-4 99% (82)   TX-27 99% (81)
SC-4 99% (80)   FL-4 99% (79)   OH-4 99% (78)   IN-8 99% (77)   AL-3 99% (76)
MD-1 99% (75)   PA-9 99% (74)   KY-4 99% (73)   IL-18 99% (72)   WV-1 99% (71)
AR-3 99% (70)   KY-2 99% (69)   NC-5 99% (68)   IN-4 99% (67)   MO-6 99% (66)
TX-5 100% (65)   GA-10 100% (64)   OK-4 100% (63)   ND-1 100% (62)   KS-1 100% (61)
OH-6 100% (60)   FL-11 100% (59)   IN-3 100% (58)   PA-12 100% (57)   TX-26 100% (56)
GA-8 100% (55)   IN-6 100% (54)   NC-13 100% (53)   NC-10 100% (52)   OH-8 100% (51)
MO-4 100% (50)   LA-6 100% (49)   GA-11 100% (48)   WY-1 100% (47)   OK-1 100% (46)
TN-8 100% (45)   TN-3 100% (44)   TX-12 100% (43)   WV-3 100% (42)   SC-3 100% (41)
PA-15 100% (40)   ID-1 100% (39)   KY-1 100% (38)   IL-15 100% (37)   MO-3 100% (36)
TN-2 100% (35)   GA-3 100% (34)   TN-4 100% (33)   TN-7 100% (32)   AZ-4 100% (31)
OK-2 100% (30)   FL-1 100% (29)   LA-3 100% (28)   PA-13 100% (27)   LA-1 100% (26)
TN-6 100% (25)   MO-7 100% (24)   TX-4 100% (23)   OK-3 100% (22)   TN-1 100% (21)
MO-8 100% (20)   GA-14 100% (19)   TX-1 100% (18)   TX-36 100% (17)   KY-5 100% (16)
NE-3 100% (15)   SD-1 100% (14)   TX-8 100% (13)   TX-11 100% (12)   AL-4 100% (11)
TX-19 100% (10)   FL-2 100% (9)   GA-9 100% (8)   TX-13 100% (7)   VA-9 100% (6)
AL-6 100% (5)   AL-5 100% (4)   AR-1 100% (3)   FL-25 100% (2)   MS-4 Called (1)

Recent Posts

  • With results: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%
  • Final: President: Biden 89% | Senate: Dem 75% | House: Dem 97%
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