| 3pm Sydney time; OBAMA projected to win election |
| Obama takes OH and with it the Presidency barring any surprises in deep blue states |
| Actual Vote: Called or Polling: Likely & above | Actual Vote: Ahead or Called or Polling: Lean or stronger | |
| Obama/Biden | 365 (365) | 365 (365) |
| McCain/Palin | 173 (173) | 173 (173) |
| Scenario | Conditions | Crucial States | |||
| Obama win | Obama to carry | any two of PA (21), OH (20), VA (13) | |||
| Obama win | Obama to carry | PA (21) or OH (20) | NM (5) or NV (5) | CO (9) | |
| Obama win | Obama to carry | VA (13) | NM (5) | NV (5) | CO (9) |
| Tie | Obama only carries | PA (21) | NM (5) | NV (5) | |
| McCain 270EV | McCain to carry | NM (5) | OH (20) | NV (5) | VA (13) |
| McCain 270EV | McCain to carry | VA (13) | PA (21) | CO (9) | |
| All scenarioes require Obama to also win in all likely & safer states | |||||
| All scenarioes require McCain to win in FL (27), IN (11), NC (15), MO (11), GA (15), AZ (10) and for some scenarioes also MT (3) and/or ND (3) plus all likely & safer states | |||||
| McCain/Palin | Obama/Biden | |||||||||||
| 51 | 93 | 127 | 132 | 142 | 160 | 67 | 311 | 291 | 278 | 238 | 224 | 195 |
| Safe | <—> | Likely | <—> | Lean | <—> | Toss-Up | <—> | Lean | <—> | Likely | <—> | Safe |
| 14% | 11.5% | 9% | 6.5% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 6.5% | 9% | 11.5% | 14% |
| TN (11) KS (6) AK (3) NEs (2) AL (9) WY (3) UT (5) ID (4) OK (7) NE3 (1) | TX (34) KY (8) | SC (8) WV (5) AR (6) LA (9) MS (6) | NE1 (1) NE2 (1) SD (3) | AZ (10) | MT (3) GA (15) | MO (11) NC (15) FL (27) ND (3) IN (11) | OH (20) | VA (13) | CO (9) NV (5) PA (21) NM (5) | MN (10) NH (4) | WI (10) ME2 (1) WA (11) IA (7) | MI (17) NJ (15) MEs (2) ME1 (1) OR (7) CT (7) MA (12) CA (55) DE (3) MD (10) RI (4) VT (3) IL (21) NY (31) HI (4) DC (3) |